A Hot Trend to Jump on with WNBA Home Dogs

Well people say “Welcome to the heat of the Summer”, this is what they mean. Baseball, golf, WNBA and NFL training camps. It’s hot and it’s great. Anyone who has plowed 2 feet of snow in their driveway totally respects the heat of the summer.

But you aren’t hear for the weather. You are hear for the betting tips and content, of which we have plenty of today.

A reminder that Betting with Bearman is a lot more than just the newsletter below. The podcast, which will air Tuesday and Friday this week can be found right here. We discuss NFL futures as well as entire golf betting card. And make sure to follow us on Twitter/X and YouTube as we give our weekend analysis on non-newsletter days. This past weekend, we went 2-1-1 in golf picks, so make sure to follow along.

On to the last week of July, where we have MLB and WNBA picks and an early look at the golf.

Seattle Mariners (-121, Luis Castillo) at Athletics (+100, JP Sears)

It's rare for a baseball game to jump off the odds board at me. Sure, we have a good feel for these teams at this point in the season, but so do the books and given the variance of the sport, I rarely star a game when the lines initially release.

Rare, not never.

The Mariners and Athletics are a pair of offenses adversely impacted by their home surroundings. The A's play in a minor league ballpark that ranks as a top-10 stadium for power while the M's call T-Mobile home, a bottom-10 by any park factor metric you want to consider. This much is known by the betting public, but sometimes the pricing takes a little time to fully adjust. With Seattle on the road, their season long stats don't tell an accurate story.

Mariners Splits

Home: 16th in ISO and 26th in wOBA
Road: 5th in ISO and 1st in wOBA

Their offense moves from a weakness to a strength and we get their ace on the mound as an added boost. The A's rank in the bottom quarter of the league in both average exit velocity and launch angle, making them no sure bet to capitalize on the plus hitting environment with Castillo on the bump. The righty has settled in after a bumpy analytical start to 2025, lowering his quality of contact in a massive way over the past two months from the first two months of this season. It's been more than a month since he allowed a homer and while his numbers, naturally, skew better at home than on the road, I'm willing to gamble on the upsie that he offers in terms of innings pitched (.642 OPS against when he faces a lineup for a third time).

Seattle had just one reliever throw 20+ pitches over the weekend against the Angles, making this a plenty rested 'pen for a team that needs to win as many of these sorts of games as they come if they want an invite to the playoff dance. The Mariners aren't a perfect team by any stretch, but this lines up as a great spot that I'm thrilled to take advantage of.

And for the better news, the line moved in our favor and is now Mariners -121, which we will take for 1.5 units.

New York Liberty (-8, 172) at Dallas Wings

For our WNBA play tonight, we are going to borrow a note from PFSN’s Kyle Soppe, a longtime friend of “Betting with Bearman”.

We love trends and are going to ride it until the wheels fall off.

https://x.com/KyleSoppePFN/status/1949435580082782538

This trend went 1-1 yesterday (was positioned nicely for 2-0 before Washington scored 26 points for the entire second half) and guess who cashed the win of those two outcomes? Yep, the Wings. They are on the second night of a back to back, but they are back into this exact same split ... a big home underdog with an above average point total.

The Wings aren't a very good team and their lack of consistency from quarter-to-quarter can be maddening, but they have a way of putting points on the board over the course of an entire game and I'll trust them to keep that going tonight in the first of three meetings with the Liberty over the next 1.5 weeks.

Generally, don't love betting on hoops teams on zero rest, but the All Star Break was less than two weeks ago, so I'm not as concerned about fatigue as I would normally be. Yesterday was a perfect example of who Dallas is: they scored 27 points in the first quarter, totaled 31 over the next two periods, and cashed our team total ticket in garbage time.

Why can't that be the case tonight? Paige Bueckers didn't play yesterday ("rest"), but all signs point to the star rookie being available tonight and because of the one-sided nature of their loss to Vegas, the starting front court wasn't too taxed in terms of minutes.

New York is the far superior team, but they lead the league in pace and have been a bottom 3 rebounding team in the league all season long. With the possession count up and the potential for some free points via putbacks, I'm in on the Wings going over their team total, currently listed at 79 points. We hit the opposite of this in Friday’s newsletter, so we have a good feel for the Wings so far.

We absolutely love our trends in Betting with Bearman. If you skipped over the WNBA section above for just the jump to the “Trend to Watch”, we are going to give it you again, right here in this section. That’s how much we love it. The “over” trend bolded below went 1-1 yesterday and is 15-3 since June 1.

WNBA home dogs of 5+ points, total of 160+

How did we do? Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and everything else we know about the sports betting world over the last few days.

How did the weekend go in the world of Sports Betting?

Get In Early

We will come back to this when NFL/CFB season starts as it is even more important then, but monitor early lines for all sports and get in as early as you can. Sometimes lines will move your way and you’ll get a better line, but more times than not the line you like will be long gone if you wait.

If you see something early, don’t hesitate as you have a better chance of profiting in the long term with the better line and chances are, others will see the same thing you see and bet it, causing the line to move against you.

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