A Mispriced Pitcher in Detroit; JVT Joins the Newsletter From Las Vegas

Happy Friday everyone! We have a robust Betting with Bearman column today with picks on MLB and NASCAR, an NFL future to jump on, and a lean in tonight’s Week 2 NFL preseason action.

And we bring back our Friday stable, Bear-necessities, with a special 1:1 with VSiN’s Jonathan Von Tobel. Make sure to read his takes on the betting industry.

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This week we previewed the AFC South and AFC East and will have the NFC West and South next week. And much more to come!

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Detroit Tigers (-136, Charlie Morton) at Minnesota Twins (+112, Pierson Ohl)

Since May 10, Charlie Morton has:

I’m not in the business of painting Morton as a high-end starter as we sit here less than three months from his 42nd birthday (his MLB debut came less than a month after Paul Skeens celebrated his sixth birthday in a year that was dominated in the box offices by The Dark Knight), but against a Twins offense that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in contact rate since the All Star Break?

The books seem to be weighing him more as a pitcher on his last legs than they are the current form of the opponent and I’m not sure that’s right. The Tigers are chasing the AL’s top-seed and, for me, that means they are likely to push their non-Tarik Skubal starters hard, understanding that they have nice depth behind their ace and would love to not only earn a bye through the Wild Card Round, but also maximize their home field advantage.

It’s been more than two months since the last time Morton threw fewer than 84 pitches, a trend I like to continue. Minnesota is an average ISO team this season and worse than that since the Break, trends that point to struggles, but don’t always predict them if you’re getting clutch hits.

The problem for them?

That’s when the savvy of Morton has kicked in this season. The veteran ranks fourth best in terms of opponent batting average with runners in scoring position this season (.164 and it falls to .117 when there are two outs). I’m not calling that the stickiest of stats (that’s more than a 100-point improvement from last season), but I do think the combination of his experience and the struggles of the Twins, he’s in a good spot.

I think you can play this a few ways. If you wanted to take Detroit to win outright (-136 at DK, -132 at FD), I’d have no issue and isolating Morton to go over his outs total (not listed yet, so depends on the number) is fine by me.