Happy Monday Betting family! We are down to four teams left fighting for the Super Bowl title. And College Football will crown a national champion tonight.
We also have 9 NBA games and 10 NHL games to choose from on this Holiday Monday.
But let’s get you some winning bets to cash.
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College Football Playoff National Championship
The final game of the College Football season is here, with the undefeated, top-ranked Hoosiers playing in Miami against the 10th-seeded Miami Hurricanes.
10 Miami at 1 Indiana (-7.5, 47.5)
We’ve seen both offenses score in chunks this year and watched Indiana go nuts in both playoff games.
But where this game is going to be decided is on defense, where Indiana ranks 2nd in scoring defense (11.1 PPG) and Miami ranks 5th (14.0 PPG). While the average gives us a 22.5-point window, we do expect more than a 14-11 game here.
That said, Miami has dominated TOP in the playoff, using their power run game to kill the clock. Well, Indiana can do the same, using running and Mendoza to extend drives. Guess what? Miami and Indiana were 4th and 5th in the country in TOP this year.
Long drives, good defenses = Under 47.5
If I were to pick a side, I would go with Miami and the 7.5, simply because they love to sustain long drive, which makes a blowout tough. Could it happen? Yes. But safer playing the total here.
Don’t go away! We have a NBA and NHL games of the night and an early look at the AFC and NFC title games
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NBA on the Court
Los Angeles Clippers (-7, 226.5) at Washington Wizards
We’ve got a heavily favored road team that will be without their best player in Kawhi Leonard and that leaves the secondary pieces open for business if you’re looking to bet overs tonight.
James Harden gets an obvious boost with him solely responsible for running this offense, but with a 43.5 implied PRA, you’re not getting much of a discount on that front.
I’m not a big over bettor period and even less so when it comes to big men who don’t operate much on the perimeter, but the first rule of gambling is that there are no definitive rules in gambling.
In his last seven games with Leonard sidelined, Ivica Zubac has taken an average of 12.9 shots per game and his conversion rate has remained strong at 62.2% (all other games this season: 9.8 shots per game, 60.4% FG). I’m looking for the Clips to have plenty of success in attacking the paint (WAS: third most shots allowed per game inside of eight-feet) and that’s where Zubac does all of his damage.
The starting center has been better at the line this year than last (72.4%, up from 66.1%) and we saw Los Angeles fully extend him in Toronto on Friday with 39 minutes). Given the usage patterns when Leonard sits and the weakness of the opponent, penciling in Zubac for 30+ minutes and a dozen (or more) shots is plenty reasonable.
The Wiz aren’t exactly a deep team and if its 20-year-old Alex Sarr taking on the primary defensive assignment, that 35-pound difference is likely to make itself known.
This prop is a soft bet on Harden, as we are banking on him creating well in those pick-and-roll sets against the league’s second worst defense. The Clippers should physically dominate this game on the first night of a back-to-back: look for them to get rolling early and often via high percentage looks and be on their way.
Zubac over 16.5 points
NHL on the Ice
Courtesy of Kevin Rogers
NY Islanders (-146) at Vancouver Canucks (-122), Total 5.5
Vancouver has dropped 10 consecutive games, while not scoring a first period goal in eight of the past nine defeats. The Canucks welcome the Islanders tonight, who have been held scoreless in the opening period in three straight games.
Of course it has to turn around sooner or later for both squads, as Vancouver scored three first period goals in a 4-1 victory at New York on December 19.
In the last three games, New York has seen the first period total juiced to the Under twice. Now, the juice is shifted to the Over side, as Vancouver has given up a first period goal at home in 12 of the past 13 games.
Let's go a bit contrarian on this play with two struggling offenses and take the first period Over between the Islanders and Canucks.
Islanders/Canucks 1P Over (-125)
NFL Early Look at AFC and NFC Championship Games
In this section, we like to take a first look at the next week’s action and hope to jump on some games before the line moves. These are not official plays unless noted that I took it today. It’s good to get ahead of the market and look for edges.
A perfect example: In NFL’s Week 1, we mentioned Broncos -7.5. If you took it Monday, it was a win. If you waited unless Sunday, when it moved to -8.5, you lost. In Friday’s column, it was still -8, so that was a push.
NFL Main Side/Total Plays: 37-44-3 (45.8%)
- Sides: 20-20-3 (0-2-1 postseason)
- Totals: 17-24 (2-2 postseason)
Main Props (including primetime games): 97-64 (60.28%) (5-4 postseason)
Total: 134-108-3 (55.3%) (7-8-1 postseason)
What we like/monitoring today
New England Patriots (-5.5, 40.5) at Denver Broncos - 3p Sunday
The line is like this, with the Patriots as the favorite, simply because of the QB situation in Denver, where Jarred Stidham will throw an NFL pass for the first time in two years - as a starter in the AFC Championship game - due to Bo Nix’s injury.
We have no idea what we are going to get with Stidham, but the Denver defense should have a field day with the mistake-prone Drake Maye. Maye has 6 fumbles (3 lost) and 2 INTs in two postseason games. You can get away with it against a Chargers and Texans team that gives it right back, but will Denver? They might with Stidham, or maybe Payton attempts to minimize the potential damage with a guy making his first start in forever.
While, the Patriots with an establish QB, should win the game, I do like the points at home.
Lean Denver +5.5 at home
L.A. Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 47.5) - 6:30p Sunday
Part 3 of this epic season series.
Points scored in those games: Rams: 58 Seahawks: 57
Total yards in those two games: Rams: 830 Seahawks: 829
The Rams dominated the first game, forcing 4 Sam Darnold INTs and had a 16-point, 4th quarter lead in Seattle in the second game, one that would’ve likely given the Rams the No. 1 seed and had this 3rd game in LA.
I’ve been on the Rams all season and not stopping now. People will say “they struggled against Panthers and Bears”. Well, they also won two road playoff games in the NFL, not easy to do and the only one to do so this postseason (ask the Bills how hard it is)
These are the two best teams in the NFL and have been all season. It’s the top-ranked offense vs. the top-ranked defense. What makes it even better is the Seahawks have a top-10 offense and the Rams a top-10 defense.
It’s the narrowest of margins and I’ll probably be all over the prop market, but I am not backing down now. The Rams, who should’ve won both regular season meetings, are battle tested with two road wins, have tons more postseason experience, both on the field and on the sidelines and are getting points, so I will happily take them.
Rams +2.5 (looking for 3s)
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
We added our first golf card of 2026 to our NFL and NBA cards. Was not a stellar week, but only week 1 of golf and 3 more chances at NFL stardom.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter).
NFL
Went 0-3-1 in our game/side/total picks, which isn’t good, but we were also a few plays from 4-0. Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda. Bills ML lost in OT after blowing late lead, both unders missed by 4th quarter scores and the Rams pushed. But still loses and we will bounce back this week.
1-2 in props, hitting on Diggs under, but losing on Kirk and the forgotten Harvey.
NBA/NHL
Missed Clippers-Trail Blazers by 2 points. Onward
GOLF
Didn’t hit any outrights or top-10s but cashed two top-20s in Griffin (who was also a OAD pick) and Conners.
0-1 in tourney matchups as Morikawa missed the CUT
Betting Tip of the Week
Bankroll Management
Above all else, be smart with your money. Know your limits and stick to them. Chasing losing bets is never a good idea. Identify what your bankroll is and stick to those guidelines, and you can have fun without worrying too much.
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action
The American Express PGA Tour preview
Conference championship game line movements and early props
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