Happy football season everyone! But before we get into how excited we are to have a full week of football on our schedule, let’s give a massive shoutout to Tommy Fleetwood for winning the Tour Championship and FedExCup title. Not just because he is a good dude and finally broke through, but also because we picked it right here in this column. That’s right, a nice 10-1 winner to cap of golf season. If you bought the newsletter, you already are profitable before football starts. His photo might permanently be our image on this newsletter.
College football is back with games Thursday through Sunday this week and we have you completely covered. After that? 18 weeks of NFL action. Let’s go!
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The newsletter will be changing a little due to football being back full time, but most of those changes won’t take place until later in the week and early next week. The first addition you’ll see below is our early look at lines. With CFB in full Week 1 force this week, we will look at some early leans.
Our final NFL divisional betting preview went live this morning with the NFC North and special guest Ahman Green, the former Packers great. Make sure you download it and listen to all things NFC North and check out all the other divisional previews. We will have a Week 1 CFB preview on Thursday with my guy Joe DeLeone.
MLB Corner
Pittsburgh Pirates (+108, Johan Oviedo) at St. Louis Cardinals (-132, Michael McGreevy)
We have about three more days to lead with baseball, so why not the Pirates and Cardinals? The NL Central has some interesting teams in it and while these two teams generally aren’t a part of the fun, this is where my money sits tonight on the diamond.
Taking the bump for the home team is Michael McGreevy, a 25-year-old righty who enters the game with three straight quality starts on his ledger. His advanced metrics don’t jump off the screen at you and he’s not the primary reason why I’m backing the birds in this spot, but color me impressed by the kid holding opponents to a .592 OPS with men in scoring position this season.
Mitch Keller is his opposing number and that’s the reason we are on St. Louis. It’s easy to look back to the last meeting and base your handicapping on that, but if it was that easy those tall buildings in Vegas wouldn’t exist.
July 2 vs. STL: 7.0 innings, 5 hits, 0 earned runs, 7 strikeouts, 1 walk
Keller was great on that night, no two ways about it, but he’s not the same pitcher now as he was then. Entering that start, he was coming off of a three-start stretch that saw him cough up just five earned runs and 11 hits in 17 innings of work. He was in good form and pitching with confidence.
Yea, that’s not the case right now.
Keller has been beat around over his past six starts (8.31 ERA) and it’s happening in a concerning way heading into this specific matchup. He can’t find the strike zone. Plain and simple. Hitting a baseball is as hard as it gets, but not swinging is easy and he’s issued three walks in four of those six recent duds.
That’s a damning flaw in any matchup, but it stands to be magnified tonight. I’m no pitching coach, but I’d hazard to say that Pittsburgh is going to ask him to try to pound the zone early and often against St. Louis.
In theory, that sounds smart, but the Cards are making contact with strikes at the fifth highest rate post All-Star Break, a strength they’ve carried over from the first half (second best). We know that Keller isn’t a bat misser (7.2 K/9, pacing for the second lowest mark of his career) which leaves us with two outcomes:
He walks hitters
He allows contact on pitches in the zone
And that’s why we will take the home team at -132.
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CFB Early Look
We will use this section of the newsletter weekly to mention games that catch our eye before they get bet into by the rest of the sharp bettors and then the public later in the week.
CFB is a little different than the NFL in not all lines are out this early, but we do have enough to work with for Week 1, because these lines have been out for some time with no games before it for most of the teams.
These are not plays unless specifically mentioned as such, but things that jump out early in the week that you might want to get ahead of early. Once we get to NFL season, this becomes even more important to jump on lines early.
Thursday
While we know 25 Boise State (-6.5) is a better team than South Florida, this is not an easy spot, traveling cross country for a 2:30p local start. The Bulls get their QB Bynum Brown back from season-ending injury and have a formidable running game to control the clock. The Broncos, who made the playoffs last year, should win, but a TD at home for the Bulls in intriguing.
I like Nebraska (-6.5) to make some waves this year in the Big Ten and don’t think Cincinnati is any good. As long as it stays below a TD, I a looking at it.
Friday
Not much is expected out of Colorado this season as Deion lost his kids and many others like Heisman winner Travis Hunter. Georgia Tech (-4) has been mentioned as a sleeper team by my CFB podcast partner Joe DeLeone. But do you want to lay the 4 on the road in the Buffs opener on national TV?
Saturday
Taking an early stance, but I just think 1 Texas (+1.5) has everything in place this year and will be catching 3 Ohio State heading other direction after departures from last year’s title team. The Buckeyes absolutely can win this at home and they don’t rebuilt, they reload, but Texas has a returning roster than can win it all, starting in Columbus.
I don’t have a play yet, but can’t wait to watch 9 LSU at 4 Clemson (-4). I always side SEC in these and for good reason, but this Clemson team is no joke. More later in the week.
New Mexico isn’t good by any means, but they have a ball-controlled offense that should be able to keep the score within 5 TDs in Ann Arbor (-37).
I would lay a lot more than 13.5 in this one, so you will see me taking 8 Alabama on the road in Tallahassee vs. Florida State. Grad the 13.5 home before it goes over that 14.
This pick was sent in by one of our loyal readers. 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Whole city pumped for the celebrations and a no-so-good Northwestern team is in town for an early Noon start. Tulane (-5.5) might be a good emotional lean here.
Sunday
At one point I was going to the top-10 battle between 6 Notre Dame (-2.5) and 10 Miami down in South Florida. Both teams should be good this year and we likely will have an official play on Friday.
Recapping the Weekend
How did we do? Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and everything else we know about the sports betting world over the last few days.
We nailed Tommy Fleetwood to win the FedExCup championship at 10-1. We also got him T10 at -150 and Ben Griffin T10 at +150. Good way to end golf season. We will be back for the Ryder Cup in a month.
We went 2-0 in NFL preseason action on Saturday and neither were a sweat. The Ravens won 30-3 over the Commanders and Colts/Bengals almost hit the over in the first half. Add Thursday’s win and we went 3-0 in NFL preseason this week.
We lost our first CFB play of the season as K-State just didn’t show up and lost outright.
We won our MLB play from Friday night, no matter how you played it as Woo pitched a gem.
How Did the Weekend Go in Sports Betting
As mentioned, Fleetwood won the Tour Championship. He was 12-1 to win outright and we played him in the 10-1 market without Scottie.
Legion XIII, whatever that is, won the LIV event in Michigan at +300.
Per John Ewing of BetMGM, Underdogs went 25-24 in the preseason and Overs hit in 31 of the 49 games.
Ryan Blaney (10-1) won the regular season finale at Daytona. We will look at the playoffs later in the week.
What’s on Tap This Week?
College Football takes center stage with Week 1. We had five games last weekend, including Iowa State’s upset win over Kansas State in Ireland, but almost everyone plays this week around the U.S.A. Make sure you listen to Thursday’s CFB Week 1 preview podcast on Bleav.
U.S. Open Tennis is underway in New York.
MLB and WNBA continue their late season pushes
NFL Roster cut downs, which means make your futures bets! Doesn’t make sense? I’m just promoting futures!
Betting Expert Tip of The Week
Shop Shop Shop
If you take anything out of any betting advice, let it be this one … Shop, shop, and shop some more. If you’re only using one book, they have you, and you already lost.
To be a successful bettor in the long term, you need to have the best price. Most legal states have numerous books for you to choose from, and you need to gain every advantage you can. Spend the extra time to shop your price across all books and promos and settle on the best one … always.
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action
Final List and Write Ups of Our Favorite Futures of Football Season (Don’t want to miss this!)
CFB Thursday picks and Analysis and Weekend Looks
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