Baseball and Tennis Take Center Stage Post July 4

Happy Monday and I hope everyone enjoyed the Holiday Weekend. If you followed us and bet the under 71.5 hot dogs for Joey Chestnut on Friday afternoon, you got off to a good start.

We are not deep into the heart of the summer with MLB in full swing, Wimbledon reaching it’s second weekend and the golfers headed to the UK for the Scottish and Open Championship.

We have you covered here all week with Betting with Bearman and launched a new YouTube channel thanks to my 11-year old social media kid. He told me to tell you to like it, click it and subscribe to it. We will be putting out content there regularly.

Today’s Monday edition of the newsletter is totally free, so pass it along to your friends to sign up at https://bearmanbets.beehiiv.com/

With MLB Betting, there are many different ways to attack edges. In Betting with Bearman, it’s not just sides and totals. For today, to kickoff your Monday, how does a short-term future bet sound to open your first full week of July?

The Angels and Rangers are battling for the next four days in Los Angeles, a rematch of an April series that saw the home team (then Texas) take all three games with a cumulative score of 12-4.

That, however, was a long time ago, so let's refresh some of the data. Over the past month, the Rangers are a top-7 offense in hard hit rate, walk percentage, and zone-swing consistency, all of which are metrics for a high-floor offensive unit, even in a game like baseball that comes with a ton of day-to-day variance.

That should play well against the Halo's, a pitching staff that, in this four-game set, will trot out three starters who strike out under eight per nine innings and three arms who walk north of four per nine. On the hitting side, the home team has the third highest chase rate and the fifth fewest runs saved via base running, flaws that aren't guaranteed to show themselves, but are flaws around the fringes that we are happy to be on the other side of.

Texas opens this set with Jacob deGrom (hasn't allowed more than two runs in a start since the NBA was still playing out their regular season) and Nathan Eovaldi (pitches per inning down for the fourth straight season and the second highest ground ball rate of his career), putting the Rangers in a great pot to take the first two games.

If we get the length as expected from those two, I love where we stand. Texas has had just one game thus far in July decided by fewer than three runs while Los Angeles is coming off a series in Toronto that saw their bullpen undergo a stress test -- three one-run losses that saw two games go to extra innings and their starting pitcher not once completing six innings.

A sweep is very much in the range of probable outcomes, but at the very least, we have Texas' top two starters in Games 1-2 and oppose Patrick Corbin in Game 4. Due to this being a series with an even game number, our odds rise, as a "tie" (+145) is installed as the favorite. Give me the Rangers to take at least three of these four games (+185), a nice way to get plus-money baseball exposure as opposed to chasing juiced daily lines in taking them each day during this set.

You only get four chances a year to bet Grand Slam tennis and the fortnight at Wimbledon is one of those chances, entering it’s final week. The French Open showed us a budding new tennis rivalry between the top two players in the world in Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. It is no surprise to see them 1-2 on the Gentlemen’s odds board.

No much has changed on the Men’s side one week in with Alcaraz, Sinner and Djokovic still the top 3 favorites by far.

Top Men’s Odds

Carlos Alcaraz (+115), Opened +125
Jannik Sinner (+140), Opened +250
Novak Djokovic (+500), Opened +650
Taylor Fritz (+2200), Opened +5000
Ben Shelton (+3500)

I’m sticking with my opening thoughts on the Men’s side, playing the longer odds with Djokovic, the 7th time champ. I got him at +650 and would still take him at +500, assuming he survives his match on Monday.

On the Women’s side, many upsets have been had, leaving Aryna Sabalenka (-160 the odds on favorite.

Top Women’s Odds

Aryna Sabalenka (-160), Opened +240
Iga Swiatek (+450), Opened +900
Mirra Andreeva (+900), Opened +1600
Amanda Anisimova (+1100), Opened +3000
Liudmila Samsonova (+1800)
Emma Navarro (+2800)
Ekaterina Alexandrova and Clara Tauson (+3000)

It’s been upset city for the Women and they may not be done yet. The obvious play is Sabalenka at -160 but I do think anyone up to +3000, including Emma Navarro at +2800 is live.

Two games on tap for Monday night with the expansion Golden State Valkyries a 6.5 underdog at the Atlanta Dream and Paige Bueckers Dallas Wings getting 6 points at the Phoenix Mercury.

Road teams hold the light ATS edge over home teams this season (52.9% cover rate) and underdogs have covered 60% of the time when catching at least seven points.

We aren’t there yet today, as both games today opened the day as 6.5-point home favorites, with the Wings now down to 6, but if either bumps to seven, we get a nice combination of trends.

Even though we aren’t at 7 yet, I still lean underdog Golden State here. Atlanta has failed to cover it’s last 5 games as a favorite and have been much better in the underdog role this season (3-0 ATS). The Valkyries are 10-5 ATS as underdogs and 6-3 ATS when getting 6 or more points.

Joey Chestnut did it again, this time winning his 17th title and paying off the -1800 if you took it. More importantly, he hit the under 71.5 hot dogs eaten, which was the play give out in the newsletter on Friday and our first YouTube video on Friday morning.

Long shot Brian Campbell won the John Deere Classic at 400-1 odds. It’s his second win of the season, both at 400-1 odds. His highest finish at any other event this season was T-32. “Betting with Bearman” gave out two top 20 winners last Wednesday and had two more finish at T-21.

Lando Norris (+330) won the F2 race in Great Britain and favorite Shane van Gisbergen (+125) won the NASCAR street race in Chicago.

Mexico (+150) knocked off the USA (+175) to win the Gold Cup.

As mentioned earlier, Wimbledon’s second week is underway with Carlos Alcaraz (+115) and Aryna Sabalenka (-160) the respective favorites

The PGA Tour heads overseas for the Scottish Open with the Open Championship in Northern Ireland on deck. A loaded Scottish Open features the top 75 players each from the PGA and DP World Tours. Scottie Scheffler (+340) and Rory McIlroy (+650) are the two favorites. We will have a full write up on Wednesday, but expect to see players such as defending champion Robert McIntyre, Tommy Fleetwood, and Ryan Fox on the card somewhere.

The FIFA Club World Cup is down to 4 teams with Champions League winners PSG (+140) the favorite with Real Madrid (+175), their semifinal opponent next. Chelsea (+275) and Fluminense (+1400) are in the other semi.

Make Proper Use of Promos

We will bring this back once football season starts, but you should all know it now: Promos are there for you to use, but you need to use them the right way and not just as throw-a-ways. Sportsbooks are just giving away free money. Some are tricks, but others, when used right, can be profitable.

As I like to tell my wife, sale does not mean free. But it does warrant a closer look.

Promos are the same way. Some are very good and should be used, but not all of them are worth playing. However, if you make proper use of promos, you can increase your chance of profiting.

My favorite promos are the boosts that give you 25-50% (or more) profit on your bet. You are changing the price to your favor, but make sure the original price is not jacked up before the boost.

Some books will make a -150 price -165 and then give you a 25% boost. Not much advantage there. But if the price is consistent, the 25-50% can help you gain an edge.

Also, when a book gives you a boosted price, make sure it makes sense. Just because a book tells you Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 TDs is boosted from -135 to +125 doesn’t mean -135 is the accurate price. Some boosts are “sucker bets.”

Do your best to stay away from those at all times. Always double-check, and don’t forget to check your “max.” If the promo is outstanding and the price is correct, you should max what you can, as you don’t get that advantage all the time, much like the “odds bet” in craps.

Betting baseball can be fun and maddening. You can be right the entire game and then be wrong. Case in point on Sunday, when Under bettors had to be excited to see the Guardians one out away from a 1-0 win vs. the Tigers. A two-out wild pitch of all things scored the tying run for the Tigers, forcing extra innings.

Well, the Tigers put up 6 runs in the top of the 10th and the Guardians added one in the bottom for a 7-2 final. Bye bye under 7.5 for a game that was one out away from 1-0.

Eeeeesh. It isn’t over until they are shaking hands at the end.

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