Happy Wednesday betting friends. Everyone knows that we have a great Divisional Round this weekend with 8 teams left for the Super Bowl and of course, a national title game coming up in Miami in 5 days. But what should really get you excited? Golf season starts tomorrow. That’s right, while some of us are freezing in the upper Northeast, others are golfing in Hawaii.
Every Wednesday in this newsletter, you will get my full PGA Tour card, with outrights, placement bets (t10/t20) and some head-to-heads matchups if I like them. I am also going to help you in your golf pools with One and Done picks AND access to some awesome golf tools that you can use to help with your pool. Head over to PoolGenius and get Discounts courtesy of Betting with Bearman.
To celebrate the start of golf season, today’s newsletter is FREE. Usually Wednesdays are behind the paywall, but in honor of J.J. Spaun’s upcoming win at Sony, everything is FREE today. All you need to read the entire article is your email address, which is FREE to give.
If you like what you see, it’s worth an upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.
Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we had former ESPN College GameDay and current Fox Sports betting analyst Chris “The Bear” Fallica on to breakdown the CFP semifinals. His picks are also in the premium section below. We will have CBS Sportline host Sia Nejad on this afternoon.
Let’s get to it!
NBA On the Court
Toronto Raptors (-2.5, 224.5) at Indiana Pacers
We get alerts like crazy when Luka Doncic goes to Dallas or LeBron James matches up with the Heat or Cavaliers, but I’m going to guess that this is the first (and last) time today you hear about Pascal Siakam taking on his former employer.
These teams last played on November 26 and while that may feel like an eternity ago, I think what we got on that night is pretty similar to what we see in Indiana this evening.
That was a 97-95 NBA Cup Group Play win for the Raps on the back of a Brandon Ingram jumper with under a second left. Neither team could really shoot straight and both took turns blowing double digit lead.
I said it was predictive, not a work of art.
RJ Barrett didn’t suit up for Canada’s finest that night and that’s the thread I want to pull, as that’ll be the case tonight as well.
First 20 games, active: 120.0 offensive rating, 100.9 pace, 57.3% eFG%
Next 17 games, inactive: 112.9 offensive rating, 97.1 pace, 51.3% eFG%
4 straight games played recently: 117.4 offensive rating, 96.9 pace, 52.9% eFG%
Last 2 games, inactive: 114.0 offensive rating, 95.9 pace, 42.8% eFG%
Over the larger samples, the offensive decline is clear and the slowing of pace is something I find interesting. Neither of these teams rank better than 20th in offensive efficiency and if the favored Raptors want to slow tempo (they’ve been a bottom-10 pace team for 1.5 months now after opening the season wanting to push at every opportunity), this projects to be another grind-it-out sort of thing.
Betting unders in the NBA these days is terrifying.. Any team in this league can get hot for five minutes, score 20 points and have you feel like you’re drawing dead.
That said, neither of these offenses boast a ton of depth and they both are fine with playing in the mud (Indiana beat the Celtics 98-96 on Monday and Toronto’s last win came on Sunday against the 76ers, a game in which they scored under 23 points in two separate quarters).
Much like my approach to football, I want to strike early before game script has the potential to hurt us. It’s reasonable to assume that these teams aren’t exactly signing up for a shootout and assuming things stay tight early, there figures to be a feeling out period.
The Raptors and Pacers are both bottom-7 scoring offenses in the first quarter. They are both bottom-7 scoring offenses in the second quarter, too. DraftKings opens up their Race To 30 Points market later in the day and depending on the price, I’m likely to click “neither” for each of the first two quarters, profiting a little if one comes through and in a pretty nice way should they both get home (it was nearly two months ago, but in that NBA Cup game, there wasn’t a single 30-point quarter … heck, three times neither team reached 27 points).
PICK: Neither team scores 30 points in the first quarter
PICK: Neither team scores 30 points in the second quarter
Don’t go away! We have our full Sony Open card and take a look at NFL Divisional Round line movements
Enjoying this free edition?
Sony Open in Hawaii Starts the PGA Tour Season
It's our first golf event of the season after The Sentry at Kapalua was canceled this season. For the last couple of months, we’ve either had to watch Fall events, indoor team golf and just close our eyes and pretend we were in Hawaii. Well, we are here!
Before we get into the Sony Open, wanted to give you access to some awesome golf tools that you can use to help with your pools, such everyone’s favorite One and Done pool. Head over to PoolGenius and get Discounts courtesy of Betting with Bearman. We will have a One and Done pick here as well, as we will every week in this Wednesday newsletter.
Sony Analysis
Outside of the Masters, there aren't many courses that relate to past course performance like Waialae CC. Quite simply, players that have played well here before, usually do well again. It's a shot-makers track that requires hitting fairways and minimizes driving distance. Placement off the tee is key and most of out picks will concentrate on not only that, but experience here.
We do give out a couple of outrights, but for those new to following BwB golf betting, we love the placement bets with top 10s/20s and head-to-head matchups. So let's dive in, keeping in mind, we haven't seen a majority of the field play in quite some time.
J.J. Spaun to win (+1800), top-10 finish (+185)
Not many had Spaun with five top 5s and a U.S. Open title on their Bingo card last year, but we should've seen it coming as he started the year right here in Hawaii with a T3. He was the 54-hole leader, before a final round 68 sent him to 3rd place.
His four round of 68 or better kick started his career year, which ended with him 7th in SG: total, 8th tee-to-green and 5th on approach. He's top 10 in SG:OTT on shorter courses (under 7,200 yards), which will play perfectly on this course.
He also recorded a T-12 here in 2023, so it wasn't just last year at this course. One of 11 players with multiple top-14 finishes at the Sony, something we are heavily looking at.
I like Spaun to continue to prove he belongs near the elite and start it right here in Hawaii like he did last year. At 18-1, we are getting a better price than some of the favorites that others will have like Henley.
Nico Echavarria to win (+4500), top-20 finish (+165)
More of a longer shot, here, but Nico was runner-up last year, losing in a playoff and was T-12 in 2023, one of the 11 players we mentioned above.
He’s Top-10 in total shots gained at Waialae of players in the field this week.
Nico had a great fall season with 3 top-14s including a T-4 at the RSM in November
Plays well at comp courses that are shorter positional courses with Bermuda grass, finishing T-16 at Valspar (Innsbrook) and T-19 at Wyndham (Sedgefield)
Russell Henley top-10 finish (+120)
You won't see many cards without Henley on it as he has the most Shots Gained at Waialae over the last 5 years.
He has four Top 10s, including a T-10 last year, T-4 in 2024 and runner-up finish in 2022. But he does not have a win yet here.
His outright prize of 11-1 is too low for us to go with at this moment, so we are going with a top-10 finish , which he has done 3 times in the last 4 years. And had T11 five years ago.
He was 12th on Tour in driving accuracy last year and 4th in SG: total.
Ben Griffin top-10 finish (+185), top-20 finish (-125)
T-12 here in 2023, with two other top 40s, so not as much success as others here, but his form...
After an outstanding regular season that resulted in two wins (Zurich, Schwab), a runner up (Memorial) and SIX other top 10s, he continued during the fall season with a runner up at Procore and a win at the World Wide Technology Championship.
Not just last year either was he had six top 15 finishes in the second half of 2024 as well.
For 2025, he was 5th in SG: total and has one of the better short games on Tour, which plays well at this course. His one weakness, driving distance, is not needed at this event, another reason I am going to play him in the top 10/20 markets.
Corey Conners top-10 finish (+250), top-20 finish (+115)
A golf card would not be complete without my favorite bet golfer on it. Some have issues with caffeine, some can’t sleep.. I have a Corey Conners problem.
But it’s not without merit. The guy has the all-around driving and iron game to win big on this Tour… it’s just his putting that fails him (and me) when it’s cashing tickets time.
For this event, he was T-3 here in 2019, T-12 in 2020, 11th in 2022 and T-12 in 2023.
He’s top 10 in the field in Driving accuracy and SG: OTT
What’s not to like other than only 2 career wins? Well, we aren’t betting him to win! Cash those positional bets CC!
Others I will mix in on DFS lineups and potential matchups
Nick Taylor - Win, T-7, T-7, T-11 in last 4 starts here; 2nd in SG last 5 years
Keegan Bradley - T-6 last year, T-2 in 2024, T-12 in 2022
Hideki Matsuyama - T-16 last year, W in 2022, all-time SG leader here
Corey Conners - T-3 in 2019, T-12 in 2020, 11th in 2022, T-12 in 2023
Brian Harman - Played every year since 2012; Six top 25s here among 12 made cuts in 14 appearances
72-hole Head-to-Head matchups
Morikawa (+100) over MacIntyre (FanDuel)
- Bobby Mac 61st in the field with mid-iron shots and hasn’t played well on comp courses despite it a good fit for his accuracy off tee
- Morikawa hasn’t played here since 2021 but has two top-21 finishes here and it fits his game well.
One and Done Pool
For those unfamiliar with One and Done pools, it’s simple. You pick one golfer a week and in the pool, you get what they make in the event. You can only use each golfer once a season, so it has a “survivor”-type element to it. If your guy finished 10th and gets a check for $110,000, that’s what you get in the pool. Do this every week and accumulate the $$. For more help and tools, Head over to PoolGenius and get Discounts courtesy of Betting with Bearman
For me this week, I am using Ben Griffin and J.J. Spaun in my OAD pools. Both have games built for courses like Waialae CC and can get you off to a great start with either a top-10 finish or even a win.
NHL on the Ice
Courtesy of Kevin Rogers
Seattle Kraken (+125) at New Jersey Devils (-150), Total: 5.5
The Kraken rallied past the Rangers, 4-2 on Monday, overcoming an early 2-0 deficit. However, Seattle trailed after the first period, dropping their record to 6-16-22 in the opening 20 minutes, including 2-9-11 on the road.
The Devils ended a four-game slide in Monday's 5-2 victory at Minnesota, as New Jersey finished off a four-game road trip.
Seattle has allowed a first period goal in five consecutive games, while New Jersey has posted a goal in the opening 20 minutes in five of the past seven home contests.
Let's back the Devils here on the puck-line against the Kraken in the first period.
Devils 1st period -.5 (+150)
Line Moves We are Watching
I want to use this section every week to point out some noticeable line moves. We will never know what actually moved the line, but the most common reasons are a big transaction (Micah Parsons trade), some big sharp action or just too much action on one side in general. We will stay away from speculating and will just give you the numbers. If it’s something we like or dislike, we will note that as well. Here are the ones we have seen ahead of Wild Card Weekend:
Buffalo-Denver has ping-ponged back and forth. Buffalo opened as a 1.5 point favorite, it swung to Denver as a favorite and now is back to Buffalo favored.
Seattle-San Fran line has stayed consistent, but the total has dropped from 45.5 to 44.5. We liked the under here, so it is on the move.
The Pats opened -2.5 over Houston and it has crept up to the key-number 3.
No movement on the Rams-Bears line but the total has gone from 50.5 to 48.5 in just two short days.
Trend(s) to Watch
Per the Action Network’s Evan Abrams
Some NFL playoff trends:
Since 2003, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-44-1 ATS (43%), including 3-7 ATS since 2020 (SEA, DEN). As a favorite of 7+ pts off a bye, they are 17-26-1 ATS (40%) (SEA).
Teams with a bye in the playoffs entering the Divisional Round are cashing at a 43% ATS rate since 2003. If you combine the Super Bowl and Divisional Round, favorites off a bye week in the playoffs are 37-59-1 ATS (39%) in that span (SEA).
Road teams that missed the playoffs last year are 29-14 ATS (67%) in the Divisional Round since 2003. Those same teams are 41-44-1 ATS (48%) in all other rounds of the playoffs (SF).
Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 8-30 SU and 19-19 ATS in the Divisional Round since 2003. Since 2011, those teams are 3-22 SU and 13-12 ATS (SF, BUF, CHI).
In the Divisional Round, underdogs who are above .500 ATS on the season are 40-23-1 1H ATS since 2005 (SF, CHI, HOU).
Thoughts and Picks on main NBA and NHL
Full NFL Divisional Weekend card, including sides, totals and props
CFP TItle game thoughts/picks
Sia Nejad on Betting with Bearman podcast
Nugget-heavy research
Want more? Subscribe now!
Become a better bettor by Betting with Bearman -- be one of the first 250 to join our Founder's Tier and lock in incredible savings, FOR LIFE. |
Subscribe today and get:
• 3 Weekly Newsletters
• Trending stories with picks
• Plays of the Day
• Same-Game Parlays of the Day
• First Access to Exclusive Community