Boise State and Nebraska in Action Thursday; All 32 NFL Win Totals Right Here

Rosters have been cut down, final trades are being made, fantasy drafts are in full swing and NFL football is right around the corner. But first! We have some college football on Thursday night with a slate of 17 games.

As we gear up for football season to start, make sure to check out the Betting with Bearman podcasts, on the Bleav podcast network, where we broke down all 8 divisions from a betting lens. This week we previewed the NFC North and will be releasing the College football Week 1 betting preview on Thursday.

Make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.

Today’s newsletter has a bonus feature with a selection for all 32 NFL win totals. You will not want to miss that!

Detroit Tigers (-131, Casey Mize) at Athletics (+107, Luis Morales)

Casey Mize was the top overall pick in the 2018 draft and is pacing for his first season with a sub-4.00 xERA. I’m not yet ready to call him the ace he was drafted to be, but this season has certainly been a step in the right direction and with just one barrel surrendered over his past three starts (49 batted balls across 17 innings), boxes are being checked as we come down the home stretch.

The Athletics have been better over the past month than they were the first four, but they are far from flawless and there’s one specific hole in their profile that we are targeting.

The first step in evaluating offenses is simple: do they swing at strikes?

This month, the A’s rank among the best at zone swing rate and that’s great, but identifying strikes and doing something with them are two different things. So far in August, the A’s are a bottom-10 zone contact team, a major red flag when facing a pitcher like Mize who needs to get ahead in counts.

This season, opponents are hitting .114 points higher against the high pedigree righty when in anything but two strike counts compared to when they are a strike away from a punchout.

If Mize is going to limit the number of barrels when contact is made and the A’s are at risk of failing to capitalize on strikes, the path is clear for the Tigers to cover the run line (+123) for a sixth consecutive Mize start.

Last night’s win over the Tigers was the first A’s home game decided by one run all season. We are betting that doesn’t happen again tonight.