Bucs, Rams, Chiefs Top Week 6; Picks and Prop for 2 MNF Games Tonight

Happy Monday Betting family! Yes, despite more embarrassing performances by the Florida Gators and Miami Dolphins, we are cheery this morning. Why? Because I learned long ago there is more to root for then your own teams, like the teams you bet on.

Tonight’s two Monday night games will decide if we profited or not this week, so make sure to read all of it below.

We are debuting 2025-26 NHL picks tonight with a new NHL handicapper. And have an NBA preseason tip for you.

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Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had Sia Nejad, from CBS' Sportsline’s Early Edge on where he provided even more winners and told us to correctly stay away from the Patriots in Week 1.

Patrick Everson, Senior Reporters from Vegas Insider, will be the guest this week.

Let’s get into it as we have two Monday night football games, early look at Week 7 and much more!

NFL Main Side/Total Plays (including primetime games): 12-13-1
- Sides: 4-6-1
- Totals: 8-7 (3-0 in Week 6 entering MNF)
Main Props (including primetime games): 38-17 (4-4 entering MNF)
Total: 50-30-1

While I believe this is a strong bounce back spot for the Bills, I don’t want to lay the 4.5 on the road vs. a solid Atlanta team off a bye. While the Bills come in with the top offense in football, averaging 395.8 yards per game, they meet the league’s top defense, as the Falcons are allowing only 244 yards per game. It’ll also be the 2nd-best passing offense (Bills) vs. the top pass defense (Falcons).

Expecting running here as neither team is good stopping the run (Falcons 16th, Bills 30th). I lean under with a running game script and will be playing multiple players to go over their rushing total, which means…

I am headed to the prop market.

Bijan Robinson over 73.5 rush yards (FanDuel and DraftKings)

We have MNF Game 2 picks below, so keep reading!

Jayden Daniels is back, which we saw in their complete 2nd half domination of a good Chargers team last week. The Commanders are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL, using a combination of Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols, Chris Rodriguez and Daniels himself to average 156.4 rush yards per game.

Know who isn’t good at stopping the run? The Chicago Bears, who are 31st in the NFL, allowing 164.5 rush yards per game. At least they are ahead of the Dolphins.

To me, these two teams don’t match their record.

Washington is 3-2, but they played two games without Daniels, losing by a TD in Atlanta without him. Only other loss was in Green Bay.

The Bears are 2-2 with wins over Dallas and Las Vegas, a game they were losing throughout. They got crushed by the Vikings and showed up for one quarter vs. the Vikings.

The Commanders should not have any trouble in this one.
Commanders -4.5

But we aren’t done with this game yet! We have a prop that we like as well, so… back to the prop market!

Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 63.5 rushing yards (both DK and FD) - Given out in Friday’s email

The great part about having two MNF games is you can use them both in the Same Game Parlay, also known as a SGPx, crossing over both games. DraftKings has a 25% boost for this exact thing (has to be +300 or longer), so our alt-line SGPx is:

Commanders -2.5 (-186)
Croskey-Merritt 60+ rushing yards (-169)
Bijan Robinson 70+ rushing yards (-139)
Josh Allen 25+ rush yards (-240) - Baker, Mariota, McCarthy all had 20+ vs. Falcons
SGPx Value: +428 + 25% boost = +535

FanDuel has a “Sweat Free” roll on first TD market for either of tonight’s game. I wish they had the jackpot one, but for this, we are going Josh Allen +750. Why not.

We’ve got a championship series ahead of us in the NL and while I’m not interested in paying the -200 price tag for the best team in baseball to advance, I do think the rested Dodgers (Game 4 of the NLDS came on Thursday) hold a nice edge.

How do you play that in Game 1?

Well, we know that Blake Snell is great (five hits allowed in 13 innings this postseason, 14 over his last 32 innings if you want to go back to early September) and we know that the BrewCrew has been able to cobble together these bullpen games at a high level.

The former is more sustainable than the latter, especially with Jacob Misiorowski unavailable tonight (54 pitches on Saturday). That said, I’m done doubting this cast the potential of these relievers … at least early in the game. I think depth will be an issue tonight, but coming in with a plan? They’ve shown the ability to excel.

Robert Gasser struggled in his one outing, but the other non-Misiorowski members of this ‘pen who haven’t started a game this postseason have allowed just two earned runs across 17 innings of work. That doesn’t happen by accident and I don’t think the slow Dodger starts are really a mistake either.

In Game 1 this postseason, they hung five runs in the first three innings on the Reds. They didn’t score once over the first three innings in their World Series clinching game last season and have just two runs in the first third of games since that singular explosion (five games).

If we think they are going to wear down a bullpen that may force some round pegs into square holes role wise, understanding that their top reliever won’t pitch and that this is the first of four games over the next five days (five in six if necessary), I’m in.

As mentioned, Snell has been close to untouchable for a month now. Opponents are hitting just .204 against him with RISP this season and in 89 at-bats during his first trip through the lineup, they’ve totaled one homer and seen 38.2% of their ABs end in K’s.

You can pair the under 2.5 runs through three innings with the Dodgers moneyline for a +180 price tag and that was my first click when the SGP market opened.

Allow me to introduce you to Kevin Rogers, a Betting with Bearman subscriber, who will be helping us with NHL picks this season. Kevin loves 1p bets (check out the spreadsheet on this twitter profile page), so expect a lot of those in here. We got to know each other when I was all over the Panthers/Oilers 1p overs in the SCF last year.

St. Louis has gotten off to a pair of rough starts in their first two games. The Blues are seeking their first goal in the first period after getting held scoreless against Minnesota and Calgary.

Vancouver hasn't allowed a goal in the opening 20 minutes against Calgary and Edmonton, while coming off a scoreless first period in Saturday's loss to the Oilers.

Both teams have been able to kill off power plays in the first period so far. St. Louis has killed four of five penalties and Vancouver is 3-for-3 on the PK.

Last season, two of their three matchups finished Over in the first period.

This is definitely a spot that St. Louis can bust out early and the price is short enough to warrant a first period Over.

In this section, we like to take a first look at the next week’s action and hope to jump on some games before the line moves. These are not official plays unless noted that I took it today. It’s good to get ahead of the market and look for edges.

A perfect example: Week 1 in this section, we mentioned Broncos -7.5. If you took it Monday, it was a win. If you waited unless Sunday, when it moved to -8.5, you lost. In Friday’s column, it was still -8, so that was a push.

With two games yet to be played, it makes it a little harder, but we will tell you what we like at this point.

What we like/monitoring today

Indianapolis Colts at LA Chargers (-1.5, 44.5)

The Chargers will be fine, but they are missing many key pieces of their team on offense and struggled to beat the Dolphins on Sunday. Without Omarion Hampton and Quinton Johnston, the Chargers struggled to move the ball in the first half vs. Miami.

Kimani Vidal was great in place of Hampton, but he was also going against the worst rush defense we have seen in a long time. It’s the third straight week that the Chargers didn’t play well, losing to the Giants and Commanders and needing a last-second FG to rally vs. the 1-5 Dolphins.

The Colts are a major step up in opponent here with an offense that is rolling everyone. Until LA gets some pieces back, I am going with the better team, getting points.
Colts +1.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 42.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Always playing with fire when you are looking to fade the Eagles. While, I do like the FG here with Minnesota, that is not going to be the play. I was there last Thursday night and saw how much of a mess the Eagles off currently is. The stats back it up too: 30th in yards, 28th in yards per play, 25th in rushing, 29th in passing. They won a bunch of early games on special teams and had nothing vs. the Giants.

The Vikings offense has not lit it up here. They are 25th in yards and bottom half in passing and rushing. Throwing the Bengals game aside, since everyone scores on them, the Vikings have scored over 21 just one time (Week 1 vs. the Bears).

The Vikings defense is also among the best in the game, 6th in yards allowed, 3rd in passing and 5th in scoring defense.

Unless the Eagles figure something out, I am going with under 42.5 and likely will be on the Vikings plus the points as well.
Under 42.5

Others that I am eyeing for now:

How Did We Do?

Monday night’s action will decide if we are profitable or not in Week 7 as we are right there on the line and two of our props that we gave out on Friday are in tonight’s games.

Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) with a full NFL slate, CFB action and everything else we know about the sports betting world over the last few days

NFL

CFB

Courtesy of PFSN’s Kyle Soppe, who had way too much time on his hand this weekend!

Of the 41 games this preseason, 26 have seen under 25% of the points scored in regulation come in the fourth quarter (two have seen exactly 25% and 13 greater than). On the surface, that might mean nothing to you, but with books inclined to simply project forward on live lines with the game data they have prior, that leaves the door open for a lot of in-game, under betting opportunities as we transition to the fourth quarter.

Why?

The thought process, and this has been more the case recently, is that this is the top mop up duty time. This is when the rosters get filled out and you have less talented players going hard on the defensive end.

In football, “3” and “7” are the two biggest key numbers since field goals are worth three points and a touchdown with the PAT is worth seven points. In terms of final scores, 14-15% of NFL games end in a three-point margin of victory and 9-10% of games are decided by seven points, the highest of any two numbers.

Shopping lines, as mentioned above, to ensure you get those key numbers is a crucial part of the process. If the price is correct (and this varies from book to book and person to person), you could buy a half point (called the hook) to get there.

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