Happy Monday Betting family! Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend. We did, as Cam Young got us our second straight golf outright in a stroke play event, following Matt Fitzpatrick’s win two weeks ago at the RBC. Young went wire-to-wire for a nice +1550 hit for us.
The NBA moves on to the Conference Semifinals tonight with the 76ers-Knicks and Timberwolves-Spurs tipping off their series. We are also into round 2 in the NHL, with a wild game last night in Colorado. Later this week, we have a Signature Event at Quail Hollow.
While today, like all Monday’s are FREE, make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss full NBA, college baseball, and golf cards and weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had two podcasts, with Kyle Soppe on Doral and NBA playoffs and Dubbs Anderson breaking down the Kentucky Derby. We are confirming another great guest for this week.
If you haven’t seen it yet, I joined the expert ranks over at SportsLine as a talent! You’ll see me on the Early Edge weekly with some picks, as well as contributing to their site and Discord every day, with the link right here. Make sure to sign up and check that out for even more daily betting content, and a great Discord to be in.
NBA Moves to Conference Semifinals
Game 1: Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks (-7.5, 212.5)
Karl-Anthony Towns assists over 3.5
We are going to keep taking this until the line moves. In addition to averaging 18.7 PPG and 11.3 rebounds in the 6 games vs. the Hawks, KAT became a playmaker, averaging 6.0 assists over the six games.
He's had 4+ assists in five of the six games, with 26 combined in Games 4, 5 and 6. He hit this prop in the first 6 minutes of Game 6’s blowout.
And it's not just in the Hawks series. He averaged 6.5 assists per game in the final four games of the regular season. Add it all up, and you get 6.2 a game over the last 9 games (the start of April).
The chances are there, as he's got 6.8 assist chances a game vs. the Hawks and 8.1 chances per game dating back to April 1.
Do I think this rate continues vs. Philly? No, but we only need 4 assists, not 6 or 8. Eventually, with Embiid there, he might get into foul trouble and his assists will come down, but when the Knicks are rocking, as they did in the 51-point wins… KAT had 10 assists on 13 catches. Again, we don’t need anywhere near that number.
TrendsCenter Trend of the Day
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Today, we head to the NBA to play on a playoff trend.
We are playing on the home favorite in game 1 coming off a big win (more than 10 points) vs. an opponent with one day’s rest.
Back home favorite team in Game 1
Coming off a big win (more than 10 points)
Opponent on one day rest
Spread is shorter than 13.
Tonight, the Knights -7.5 fit this, as do the Pistons -3 on Tuesday.
I am partnering with Parlaymint to host a private group exclusive to Betting With Bearman subscribers.
Parlaymint is an interesting new group parlay app where each person adds one pick per parlay and outcomes are settled based on which picks win and lose. It is a different way to play with your crew that makes every pick visible and accountable.
If you want to see it in action, here is a quick 2-minute walkthrough: parlaymint.com/swt
I set up a private Betting With Bearman group for this. We are running a contest through the summer.
How it works:
I seed parlays with my picks
You can join those or start your own inside the group
Each person adds one leg per parlay
Parlays are built together and lock when they go live
What happens at settlement:
Only losing picks cover the parlay buy-in
If your pick wins, your stake is returned
If every pick wins, the parlay pays out at full odds
Higher odds picks earn a larger share of the return
Why it is different:
No eliminations
No resets
Every result carries forward on a live leaderboard
You can see over time who is actually adding value
We will run this across NBA Playoffs, NHL Playoffs, MLB, EPL, MLS, WNBA, and the World Cup so there is always something live.
The contest runs through the World Cup Final on Sunday July 19, 2026.
🥇 1st Place – Gold tier subscription for 1 year & $250 cash
🥈 2nd Place – Silver tier subscription for 6 months & $100 cash
🥉 3rd Place – Bronze tier subscription for 1 month & $50 cash
To be eligible for prizes, you must be a subscriber to the Betting With Bearman newsletter. Bring your crew into the group and build parlays with people you trust. Free to play. Everyone starts with 20,000 coins.
Download Parlaymint on the App Store or Google Play and join our group here: https://parlaymint.app.link/Sr22urV5z2b
Don’t go away! We have lots more NBA playoff content, top NHL play, nuggets, and much more, including a weekend recap.
Enjoying this free edition?
Partnering with a new tool, Sharp Hunter, which can be found here: https://sharphunter.app/chat?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=bearman
It analyzes data from nation's most successful bettors, including betting history and wager amounts, to rate bets on a 1-3 scale. Their last six highly-rated games all won.
Here is what I found using the tool. Check it out!
VJ Edgecombe over 3.5 assists (+115) - top NBA play on Sharp Hunter
Most dominant sharp signal of the day. 99% of money is on the over, but the bet slips are 50/50 split. Massive 49% Money Edge. It’s all Sharp Money
Averaged 4.2 assists per game in regular season and getting plus money tonight.
Played an averaged of 38 min a game in the series vs. Celtics.
More NBA Playoff Content
Game 1: Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs (-13.5, 217.5)
De"‘Aaron Fox over 5.5 assists
De’Aaron Fox averaged 6.8 assists per game in the five-game series vs. Portland, hitting over 5.5 assists in four of the five games.
This game on 10.8 assist chances per game in the series, the 14th highest average.
He also hit this in two of the final three games of the regular season, with the one he missed in the meaningless finale.
He also averaged 34.8 minutes per game in the series, playing at least 33 minutes in all five games.
The Wolves are not as good defending the guards as Portland was during the season, so this might be a better matchup.
Game 1: Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks (-7.5, 212.5)
Joel Embiid over 26.5 points
While the Knicks defense excelled overall this season (7th in rating, 5th in scoring), they were only 21st against opposing centers this season, allowing 22.7 PPG.
They will have to go up against 76ers Joel Embiid, who returned for the final four games of the series vs. Boston, averaging 28 points per game, helping lead Philly to three wins in a row.
In two games vs. the Knicks this season, Embiid averaged 32 PPG and 10.5 rebounds a game.
Do you trust Mitchell Robinson to stop Embiid? If healthy, he is very dangerous against this Knicks team.
Not apples to apples, but he scored 33 points per game vs. the Knicks in the first round in 2024, hitting over 26.5 in five of the six games.
NHL on the Ice
Game 1: Anaheim Ducks (+140) at Vegas Golden Knights (-166), Total: 6.5
Anaheim was an automatic Over team in the first period against Edmonton in the first round, cashing in all six games. The Ducks have hit the first period in 10 consecutive games, but that should change tonight.
The Golden Knights welcome the Ducks in the second round series opener after Vegas knocked out Utah in the quarterfinals. Vegas limited Utah to seven or fewer shots in the first period in each of the final five games.
In the three regular season matchups, the first period Over hit twice, but Vegas goalie Carter Hart didn't play in any of those games.
Look for a lower-scoring first period in Game 1 tonight between the Ducks and Golden Knights in Vegas.
Ducks/Golden Knights 1p under (+105)
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
Now that I am in the SportsLine Discord, I have wall-to-wall picks, even after the newsletter posts. I plan on starting a Discord of my own in the fall.
As noted in the intro, we hit Cam Young outright, in this newsletter on Wednesday. It’s our second outright in the last two stoke-play events.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and how we did overall on the weekend
GOLF
Hit Young +1550 outright and his Top 10 at +110
Also hit Adam Scott top-20 at +108, while Morikawa and Gotterup let us down.
As for head-to-heads, over the weekend, we went 2-4-1, with a Saturday parlay hit.
NBA
We missed on James Harden 3’s in Game 6 as he decided he didn’t want to shoot them, but we easily hit Wendall Carter’s PRA under and our TrendsCenter play on the Lakers in Game 6 plus the points.
CBASE
Didn’t have the best weekend due to college bullpens as we were on the right side of THREE games that the bullpens blew late.
Friday: 1-1
Saturday: 1-3 with a MLP parlay hit as well
Sunday: 0-2 with a MLP hit
2-6 solo games + 2 MLPs. Losing weekend. Three losses were 8th or 9th inning blown leads. Alas.
If not in the newsletter, make sure to catch them on Twitter/X
Betting Tip of the Week
Filter Through the Noise
Everyone has their system or their way of attacking the lines. I am more of an aggregator of information, meaning I gather all the info I can in order to make the best decision. With that comes a lot of noise to filter through, which is the first step in trying to decide what to use and what not to use.
There is no perfect science, but historical betting stats that go too far back (different coaches/players) or small sample sizes are usually just noise. Settle on relevant stats or trends that help you and trusted sources that make you smarter. That will help you in the long run.
Full PGA Preview at Quail Hollow
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action in NBA playoffs, MLB, NHL, College baseball
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