Chiefs Not Done Yet; Panthers-Niners Battle on Monday Night

Happy Monday Betting family! Hope everyone had a nice, winning weekend. Yesterday marked the fourth straight Sunday without a Dolphins loss, so we are happy over here (played a TNF and had a bye with two wins ;)).

Anyhow, we finish Week 12 with a Monday Night Football game in the Bay Area with the Panthers and Niners, both on that fringe line of the playoffs.

We also have 10 NBA games and 7 NHL games to choose from.

Quick note: We will not have a Wednesday newsletter this week due to traveling for the holiday. Instead, we will preview the 3 Thanksgiving games and Black Friday game in today’s newsletter. Props are not out, so those will be sent out via Twitter/X.

But let’s get you some winning bets to cash.

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NFL Main Side/Total Plays (including primetime games): 20-24-1
- Sides: 8-12-1
- Totals: 12-12
Main Props (including primetime games): 68-37 (5-4 in Week 12)
Total: 88-61-1

I’m going to freely admit that I have gone all over the place with this game. Lots of better than average options, but nothing that I want to scream from the rooftops that you have to take this.

We will start with the side. In last week’s Early Look column, I said I liked Panthers at 6.5 and was hoping it would go to 7. It went to 7 by Tuesday night and I gage that out on VSiN. It’s now 7.5, which makes us like it more, although it does give us a little pause because it only moves past that key number of 7 if some heavy money is coming in on SF. That’s fine. Let them have the Niners. The Panthers, while not a Super Bowl contender by any means, are right there in the NFC South and with the Bucs loss last night, can take over solo first place in the division with a win tonight. Even with a loss, they’d be a half game behind and Baker Mayfield is hurt. Am I a Panthers believer? No. But I have also faded the Niners from the get go, as you saw with my dozen Rams futures I played.

The Niners enter with the 28th-ranked pass defense, mainly because they allowed Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals to pass for over 400 yards last week. Not saying Bryce Young is going to that tonight, but he is coming off his career-high game of 448 yards and 3 TDs. They’ve also given up 103.8 yards pre game on the road, which Panthers RB Rico Dowdle will take advantage of. Yes, Brock Purdy is back, and yes, they looked great last week with him back, but it’s not like Mac Jones was bad. He was one of the leading passers in the NFL when he was starting. It was the defense that was a problem and that has not changed.

I already liked the Panthers here, but am going to leave you with some nuggets, courtesy of Action Network’s Evan Abrams. Not all are 100% relevant to tonight’s game, but they also show some patterns about each team we will see tonight.

Now, you many not care what San Francisco did in 2023 and that’s not wrong, but both Niners trends above carry over to all of 2024 and into 2025. And the Panthers one is just this season.

Panthers +7.5

Don’t go away! I am going to “Prop it Like it’s Hot” below as we love props in prime time games. And a Same Game Parlay of Course

We aren’t just going to give you a side as we love primetime props. As I noted above, I was back-and-forth on this game all week. At one point, I was leaning towards the under in Tet McMillian, since the Niners, while 28th in pass defense, have covered WR1s pretty well this season, allowing others to do the damage. But they also got dominated by Michael Wilson last week when Marvin Harrison Jr. was out and McMillian showed how good he could be with his career game last week. So, while we do lean under 65.5 yards for Tet, we are headed somewhere else.

We are simply going to use our two picks from above and move them to some alt lines, add two more we like, and boost it back with FanDuel’s 30% or DraftKings’s 35% SGPx boosts.

The Suns are one of the three hottest teams in the NBA, a sentence I had no clue I'd be typing at any point this season, never mind in the first month of action, but here we are.

They are excelling at shooting the ball and taking away your 3-point looks, a nice recipe in professional basketball in the year 2025, but that's what also makes Houston a title threat this season.

They aren't reliant on the long ball, but they sure can knock it down when given the opportunity.

The Rockets and Raptors are the only two teams in the NBA to rank top-7 in both percentage of points that come via 2-point shots AND 3-point shooting percentage. In essence, through 14 games, they look about as well versed of an offensive team as there is in the league.

That's a tough matchup for anyone, but especially a team playing for the second time in as many days (Houston last played on Friday). Phoenix looked good in their most recent back-to-back, but that was against the undermanned Pacers and it is worth noting that if you want to judge "fatigue" by opponent free throw attempts, Indiana got to the stripe 29 times in that blowout.

Even if you don't think the rest disadvantage is a big deal, this just profiles as a mismatch. This season, 49.3% of opponent shots against the Suns come on zero dribbles, the sixth highest rate in the league and easy pickings for a Rockets team that is stuck on cruise control with their offense.

Houston has won nine games in regulation this season and all of them have come by at least seven points. If I'm isolating a player in this game (be it for DFS or an SGP), Amen Thompson's drives per game are up 58.7% from a year ago and his efficiency hasn't dipped. He's averaging 15.4 shots and 11.7 rebounds-plus-assists in November: you can take his 31.5 PRA (35+ is plus money if that interests you). Both are fine looks given how much he is on the floor and my expectations from this Rockets offense.

Pick: Amen Thompson over 31.5+ points/rebounds/assists, Rockets -6.5

Courtesy of Kevin Rogers

Detroit has been awful in the first period recently, leading once through 20 minutes in the last 17 games. The Red Wings travel to New Jersey tonight to face the Devils, who are looking to snap a three-game slide.

The Devils return from a five-game road trip, closing out in Philadelphia on Saturday in an ugly 6-2 loss. The first period was one to forget for New Jersey, who allowed four goals to the Flyers.

The Wings enter tonight's action at 3-8-11 in the first period, one of three teams to lead only three times through 20 minutes this season.

After New Jersey struggled to close the road trip, expect a good start out of them against Detroit tonight and to lead after the first period.

Devils 1P (-146) at Red Wings

In this section, we like to take a first look at the next week’s action and hope to jump on some games before the line moves. These are not official plays unless noted that I took it today. It’s good to get ahead of the market and look for edges.

A perfect example: In NFL’s Week 1, we mentioned Broncos -7.5. If you took it Monday, it was a win. If you waited unless Sunday, when it moved to -8.5, you lost. In Friday’s column, it was still -8, so that was a push.

This week will be a little different since there will be no newsletter on Wednesday, I am going to give you my thoughts (and play if there is one) on the Thursday and Friday games. Props aren’t out yet, but we will tell you what we are looking for.

If there is something from Sunday that I want you to jump on now, I will mention that as well.

What we like/monitoring today

Thursday

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 49.5)

Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 51.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 51.5)

Friday

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 44.5)

Weekend

How Did We Do?

A nice rebound from last week, going 5-3 in the prop market on Sunday and hitting a live parlay (which we gave out on Twitter) to make some money on Sunday.

Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) with full NFL and CFB slates, MLB postseason and NHL underway.

NFL

CFB

NBA/NHL

Bankroll Management

Above all else, be smart with your money. Know your limits and stick to them. Chasing losing bets is never a good idea. Identify what your bankroll is and stick to those guidelines, and you can have fun without worrying too much.

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