Chiefs out of the AFC West race; Chargers-Eagles Battle on Monday Night

Happy Monday Betting family! Hope everyone had a nice, winning weekend. My son went to his 5th career Dolphins game, and in a stat I can’t explain, is 5-0. Yep. Find me another kid 5-0 at Dolphins games.

Anyhow, we finish Week 14 with a Monday Night Football game in Los Angeles with the Chargers and Eagles.

We also have 3 NBA games and 5 NHL games to choose from.

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Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had Joe DeLeone on, where he broke down CFB Championship Weekend games and CFB futures.

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NFL Main Side/Total Plays (including primetime games): 26-29-2 (47.3%)
- Sides: 12-15-2
- Totals: 14-14
Main Props (including primetime games): 79-48 (62.2%)
Total: 105-77-2 (57.6%)

After the Eagles racked up 427 yards and 38 points vs. the Giants, including Saquon Barkley’s best game of the season with 150 yards rushing, we all thought the Eagles offense was fixed. They won the next two games, over playoff contending Green Bay and Detroit with outstanding defense (10-7 at GB and 16-9 vs. Detroit), overshadowing the offensive struggles.

Well, those struggles reared their ugly head in back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Bears. Philly has averaged 305.5 yards per game, 15.5 points per game, and just 209.3 pass yards per game. And in the last two games, they weren’t exactly playing murder’s row of defenses in Dallas and Chicago, two of the weakest defenses in the league.

That is all to say the Champs are not playing like the Champs and I do not want to lay points with them on the road. Now they face a Chargers defense that is 3rd in the NFL in total defense, 13th against the rush and 2nd against the pass. They are 11th in scoring at 21.0 points per game allowed.

Herbert is a little banged up, but will play and preseason Rookie of the Year candidate Omarion Hampton will suit up in the backfield for the 8-4 Chargers. After their worst game of the season, a 35-6 loss to Jacksonville in which Herbert was benched, the Chargers came out of their bye week with a blowout win over the Raiders.

To me, the Chargers are playing better football on both sides. And they are getting points at home. While LA is fighting to stay with Denver in the AFC West and in the Wild Card race, the Eagles have a little more cushion in the NFC East with Dallas’ TNF loss.

I am not saying I’d be shocked if the Eagles come out and play like Champs, but we have only seen that in a few times all season. Even in their wins, they haven’t been pretty. I am on the points tonight and much like the Bears 6.5 line yesterday, I am not being burned by the hook. Buy the 2.5 up to 3.
Chargers +3 (-130)

Note: If Herbert is ruled out, I am not taking Chargers

Don’t go away! I am going to “Prop it Like it’s Hot” below as we love props in prime time games. And a Same Game Parlay of Course

We aren’t just going to give you a side as we love primetime props. We have hit 62.2% of our props this season, so let’s find a good one for tonight!

I usually like to take alt lines and boost it back with the FanDuel’s 30% or DraftKings’s 25% SGPx boosts. With my main play being a player under, that is more difficult as they don’t allow alt unders. We will still use the Chargers alt line and I will play the game under with an alt line and find some other things I like:

I have this thing about betting on bad teams: I don't like doing it.

Neither of these teams are any good, I'll give you that, but there are levels to this.

The Kings are the second worst FG% defense inside of eight feet, in the 8-16 feet range, and allow opponents to launch the seventh most uncontested triples. They are the picture of incompetence on that side of the floor and while I understand that Indiana is rolling out a skeleton crew, they still have specialists that can punish you.

Pascal Siakam is pacing for a career high in PPG thanks to a spiking free throw rate, Bennedict Mathurin is a confidence based player coming off of a big one (28 points on 6-11 from 3 with just two turnovers in 38 minutes on Friday), and we have plenty of evidence that TJ McConnell can take over the game for a handful of minutes at a time.

I trust the Pacers to, at the very least, put points on the board. The Kings rank third in shots per game that come from 10-14 feet and second in the 15-19 bucket: they are great at settling for the shots that every defense in 2025 wants to give you.

Zach LaVine caught fire in Miami on Saturday and that's going to happen from time-to-time, but his PED is flirting with his lowest mark since his rookie campaign and has proven more than capable of shutting down his aggression if he doesn't have it going early.

31-27-14-33-14-13-14-41-12-9-8-26

Those are the point differentials for the Kings over their past dozen losses. This is less a bet on the Pacers and more me fading the Kings at a number under five points.

Pacers (-3.5, -110 at FanDuel)

Courtesy of Kevin Rogers

Calgary has started its homestand with a pair of impressive victories over Minnesota and Utah. The Flames have not allowed a first goal period in five consecutive home games.

Buffalo looks to break through tonight after dropping the first two games of its road swing at Philadelphia and Winnipeg. The Sabres lost those games by a combined score of 9-2, while looking to avenge a 6-2 home defeat to the Flames on November 19.

The home/road splits for the first period lean in Calgary's direction, but yet the Flames are basically a pick-em here. Also, the Flames have scored one first period goal in the past four games and three goals in the last six trips to the ice in the opening 20 minutes.

Let's go with the Sabres to lead after the first period against the Flames.

In this section, we like to take a first look at the next week’s action and hope to jump on some games before the line moves. These are not official plays unless noted that I took it today. It’s good to get ahead of the market and look for edges.

A perfect example: In NFL’s Week 1, we mentioned Broncos -7.5. If you took it Monday, it was a win. If you waited unless Sunday, when it moved to -8.5, you lost. In Friday’s column, it was still -8, so that was a push.

This week will be a little different since there will be no newsletter on Wednesday, I am going to give you my thoughts (and play if there is one) on the Thursday and Friday games. Props aren’t out yet, but we will tell you what we are looking for.

If there is something from Sunday that I want you to jump on now, I will mention that as well.

What we like/monitoring today for Week 15

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5, 52.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-9.5, 42.5)

Others that I will be monitoring and waiting for lines to post:

College Football Playoff

Since I was in NJ and NY yesterday, I was able to get down some futures once the CFP was announced (not allowed in CT). In the spirit of transparency, I took:

How Did We Do?

A winning NFL week, going 2-2-1 in the games/totals and 5-3 in the prop market on Sunday. We also had one of the worst bad beats you’ll ever see along the way.

Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) with full NFL and CFB slates, MLB postseason and NHL underway.

NFL

CFB

NBA/NHL

For the NFL, Get in Early

The NFL has the tightest lines of any sport or league, meaning the margin of difference between the lines and power rankings is slim.

The best time to get in on a good number is when they first post on Sunday night. The market is fresh, and it hasn’t been bought into yet. Books spend Sunday evening and even Monday morning adjusting opening numbers to the big bets and sharp action coming in, so get in before they move!

** BTW.. the top last week on key numbers… came into play in GB/Chicago

I used to have this section weekly in the newsletter but there haven’t been a tremendous amount of horrific bad beats lately… until the Broncos/Raiders game.

We will led Dave Portnoy give you his thoughts. Note: anyone who reads anything I do here or on Twitter/X knows that I am a strong opponent of anyone saying any game is rigged or fixed. They just aren’t. So ignore that stuff from Portnoy, but the sequence will make you vomit.

And Betting with Bearman had Raiders team total u15.5

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