College Football Quarterfinals begin; NFL Award races coming down to the wire

Happy Wednesday betting friends. And Happy New Year! This is the last newsletter of 2025 and we hope you have enjoyed all of the information since May. I know we’ve had a great time doing it and will continue to have CFB, NFL, NHL, and NBA analysis into 2026. And golf is right around the corner!

We ended Week 17 on a good note, hitting the over in the Rams-Falcons game. Today, we breakdown the College Football Playoff quarterfinal games. If you want even more in-depth coverage, get over to Prize Picks, where I did some writing here, including a Super Bowl contenders preview.

We don’t have NBA or NHL today due to holiday travel, but will have plenty on Friday. They are all worth an upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.

We also take a look at our Futures portfolio and hit on an NBA and NHL game.

Let’s get to it!

It’s down to the final 8 of the CFP, which I still say is too many teams, but that is for a different newsletter. We have one game on NYE and three more on New Year’s Day, which is now CFP Quarterfinal day. Below you’ll get my favorite play of the four, but make sure to stick around beyond the paywall for the other games as well as picks from our CFB handicapper Eric Cohen and VSiN host Tim Murray.

5 Oregon (-2.5, 51.5) at 4 Texas Tech - Orange Bowl

While the Rose, Sugar and Cotton Bowls will get most of the attention, I am most interested in watching and betting the Orange Bowl. People have been sleeping on Texas Tech all year and I think the wrong team is favorited here. No, the Big 12 is not as good or deep as the Big Ten or SEC, but if you haven’t watched, Texas Tech is a lot better than people think.

Other than one slip up on the road vs. an Arizona State team a season removed from this very spot in the CFP quarterfinals, the Red Raiders have boat raced through the season. All 12 of their wins are by 22 or more points, which includes two wins over top-15 BYU and 16th-ranked Utah.

The Red Raiders are 2nd in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 42.5 points per game and 5th in total offense at 480.3 yards per game. Oregon is no slouch and one of the best teams in the country and favored for a reason. They very well could’ve won the national title last season if didn’t draw Ohio State in the quarterfinals and no one would be surprised if they won it all this year. But we have also seen them struggle at times this season, particularly late in the season. They struggled vs. Wisconsin, snuck by Iowa and needed some late fireworks to put away USC. They also needed 2 OT to beat a not-so-good Penn State team.

We know both teams have explosive offenses, but to me, the game will be won on defense, where the Red Raiders are third in scoring defense, allowing 10.9 points per game and third in total defense, allowing 254.4 yards per game. Is that because of a Big 12 schedule or because they are really good? This game will answer that question.
Texas Tech +2.5 (get a 3 if you can find it)

Stick around for rest of CFP playoff slate, as well as a Futures portfolio check in