Commanders-Packers Kickoff Week 2's NFL Action; Props We Like for TNF

Happy Wednesday, the last day of the week without football. We like to get ahead on Betting with Bearman, so we have our Thursday Night Football card, featuring a pick off Commanders-Packers, as well as our Same Game Parlay, props and plays for the book promos that are offered.

We also take a look at our Futures portfolio and hit on an MLB game.

Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we will have the NFL and CFB covered from head to toe with a special guest, Tim Murray, host of VSiN's CFB Tailgate Show on Saturday mornings, VSiN PrimeTime on weeknights, where I am often a guest, and VSiN’s CFB Betting podcast.

And upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.

Let’s get to it!

Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 48.5)

The Packers might be better than a lot of us anticipated, although I did pick them on the Betting with Bearman podcast with Ahman Green, to win the NFC North at +300. Now that we saw what they did to the Lions week 1, everyone else is noticing.

The Commanders struggled in Week 1, but sometimes you see that with familiar divisional opponents. It also should not have been a huge surprise as 5 of previous 6 games between the two teams were one score games. In the end, they will be fine, but this is a tough spot for them, facing a very good Packers team.

Green Bay coach Matt LeFleur and his Packers have been cover machines early in the season, 16-3 ATS in the season’s first three games since 2019 and 8-0 ATS at home. With the way the defense held the Lions to under 250 total yards and dominated that game, I like them here as well. We used this stat before but worth bringing back: the Packers were 11-1 last season against everyone not named Detroit, Minnesota or Philly. Five of their six losses came by 5 points or less, meaning they were a lot closer to the top of the NFC than people realized. You saw that in their Week 1 win.

The juice on -3.5 is down to -105, which means the books are getting the action on Commanders +3.5 and might be close to moving the line to 3, which would thrill me. They don’t want to move it, but it might happen. I still like the -3.5, but am waiting until Thursday to see if it falls to -3.

Stick around for more on this game, including our SGP and prop plays below