Dolphins-Bills Kickoff Week 3's NFL Action; Props We Like for TNF

Happy Wednesday, the last day of the week without football. We like to get ahead on Betting with Bearman, so we have our Thursday Night Football card, featuring a pick off Dolphins-Bills (you know exactly what I am picking here), as well as our Same Game Parlay, props and plays for the book promos that are offered.

We also take a look at our Futures portfolio and hit on an MLB game.

Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we will have the NFL and CFB covered from head to toe with a special guest, Chad Millman, formerly of ESPN.com and The Action Network.

And upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.

Let’s get to it!

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-12.5, 49.5)

I’ve seen enough of the Dolphins lately to convince me it’s over and a new regime needs to come in and clean house. And while we don’t know when it’s going to happen, Friday after this game might be it. I don’t take joy in laying big numbers in the NFL, nor on an early week game, but I’ve also watched every painstaking play of the Dolphins and won’t lose sleep over laying 12.5.

BwB did some research to see if the big number should scare me off historically. Going back to 2018, double-digit favorites are .500 against the spread and 6-7 ATS in short weeks such as TNF. So nothing there to support or prevent laying the big number. This was in our Early Look column on Monday as we feared it might to to -13 or -14. So far, it is holding steady, which is good for taking the Bills, which we are doing here.

For those counting at home, the Dolphins have lost six straight and 13 of the last 14 overall vs. the Bills and nine straight and 13 of 14 in Buffalo. And that’s with a much better product than what’s on the field right now.

Weirder things have happened, but the Dolphins defense is 26th in yards allowed, 31st in points allowed, 25th in rush yards allowed and tied for worst in getting off the field on 3rd downs. They have to stop a Bills offense that leads the world in everything. Miami allowed the Colts to score on all 7 possessions and Patriots scored on five of the seven non-kneel downs. The scoreboard operator won’t wall asleep.

This is not just about stats. There is a massive talent difference on the field, on the sidelines and in the demeanor in how each team plays. One team is out there fighting for a championship while the other is going through the motions.

It’s the rare short week that I am willing to lay the big number. Are we at risk for a backdoor? Always are, especially with big numbers. But I don’t think this one will be close. The Bills just covered this and more on the road at the Jets. And if the players were going to “Fight for Mike”, they would’ve done it by now. Don’t overthink it.

Bills -12.5

Stick around for more on this game, including our SGP and prop plays below