Happy Friday everyone. Or Good Friday if that’s your holiday. Mine will be good if we hit a few our bets tonight. We have analysis of both Final Fours game, as well as multiple NBA picks, a golf card, and 3 college baseball plays for the evening.
While we give out one of our college basketball Final Four plays for free tonight in the newsletter, our complete NCAA Tournament analysis, NBA props/sides, Valspar golf card and NHL plays are all worth an upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. This week, we had SportsLine’s Eric Cohen on to break down the Final Four and give some Valero golf picks.
Speaking of Sportsline, some news to report. I will be joining the expert ranks over there as a talent, starting today! You’ll see me on the Early Edge tomorrow morning with some picks, as well as contributing to their site and Discord every day, with the link right here. Make sure to sign up and check that out for even more daily betting content, and a great Discord to be in.
I was on yesterday and will be on next Thursday with some Masters picks.
You know that I only recommend tools I actually use, and PoolGenius is what I’ll be using this year when I build out my March Madness brackets and play in a few NCAA Survivor pools.
They’re offering discounts for the Betting with Bearman family if you want to check it out.
One thing a lot of people miss with bracket pools is that winning isn’t really about predicting every game correctly — it’s about understanding what everyone else in your pool is picking and finding the right spots to differentiate. PoolGenius shows public pick rates alongside win probabilities and then generates optimized brackets based on your pool settings, which makes the process a lot more strategic.
They also have an NCAA Survivor tool, which is pretty unique. If you’ve played NFL Survivor, think of NCAA Survivor as packing an entire NFL Survivo
r season into about three weeks — with even more strategy because of how the tournament works. Their tool grades every possible pick based on win odds, popularity, and how saving teams for later rounds impacts your chances to survive the pool.
If you want to get a feel for the strategy side of survivor pools, their NCAA Survivor Strategy Guide is a good place to start:
They also have an article covering where to play NCAA Survivor Pools if you’re looking for one.
I’ll be using it when I put my brackets together next week, and if you’re looking for an edge in your bracket or survivor pool this year, it’s definitely worth checking out.
We are excited about our affiliate deal with our new friends at Betr. Through our partnership, you can sign up now and get $10 free and then a 50% deposit match up to $200 by using the Betting with Bearman sign up link, right here.
Click here to jump down to our Blitzanalytics.co prop of the night. We got back on the winning path with Stephon Castle’s game last night.
Final Four Heads to Indy
Three games left in the NCAA Tournament, to decide who will be the national champion. Arizona and Michigan are looking for their first titles in 29 and 37 years, respectively, Illinois is looking for its first, and UConn it’s 105th in the last 10 years.
Let’s break down the semifinal games. We will have full national championship game coverage in Monday’s newsletter.
NCAA Tournament Odds to Win
Michigan +170
Arizona +180
Illinois +400
UConn +550
1 Michigan (-1.5, 157.5) vs. 1 Arizona
This might be the best matchup we’ve seen it years. Doesn’t mean it’ll be the best game as we may have just witnessed that yesterday, but the two of the best teams squaring off for a chance at their first title in 30-40 years is a nice treat.
This matchup is between the top two teams in KenPom’s rankings, with Michigan No. 1 and Arizona No. 2. Both teams have offensive and defensive rankings in the top 5. And both teams spent time at No. 1 in the polls this season.
This incredible stat, given to us on the Betting with Bearman podcast, by Eric Cohen: Per Evan Miyakawa, the Wildcats have never had a possession in game this season in which the outcome already out of hand in a loss. Zero. Note one. By comparison, Michigan had six, Illinois 18, and UConn 19. They are in every game till the final whistle.
The Wolverines are the first team in NCAA history to win 4+ tourney games, while scoring 90+ in all of them.
The Wildcats are incredibly deep, with seven players averaging at least 8.6 points a game.
It’s splitting hairs with these two teams, but if I were to find one edge, it’s that Arizona is deeper and have played better more consistently than Michigan. It’s a thin line, as the two teams have a combined five losses by 23 total points, with the lone different being Arizona won the Big 12 tourney and Michigan lost in the final. Not that that matters as both made it to Indy, but we are looking for the thinnest edge.
Arizona being able to sub in guys that can score at all times for rest or foul trouble or matchups is the little edge I am leaning towards.
Arizona ML (+105). Rather take them ML than get +1.5 for -112.
Stick around for the UConn/Illinois betting preview, Final Four betting data, our top NBA and NHL plays, Valero PGA picks and more!
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