Happy Monday Betting family! The Final Four is set after that ridiculous UConn miracle over Duke. I have friends and foes on both sides of that contest, so I had no particular side, plus I can’t bet Connecticut games here. But it was a dandy.
We had a great golf weekend of head-to-head betting, so make sure to follow me on Twitter/X for all those plays as there is no newsletter over the weekend. Soon (big tease), there will me more places to find my picks, so stick around!
While today, like all Monday’s are FREE, make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss full CBB, NBA and golf cards and weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had Betting Analyst Doug Kezirian on to break down the four NCAA Tournament regions, give out Sweet 16 plays.
You know that I only recommend tools I actually use, and PoolGenius is what I’ll be using this year when I build out my March Madness brackets and play in a few NCAA Survivor pools.
They’re offering discounts for the Betting with Bearman family if you want to check it out.
One thing a lot of people miss with bracket pools is that winning isn’t really about predicting every game correctly — it’s about understanding what everyone else in your pool is picking and finding the right spots to differentiate. PoolGenius shows public pick rates alongside win probabilities and then generates optimized brackets based on your pool settings, which makes the process a lot more strategic.
They also have an NCAA Survivor tool, which is pretty unique. If you’ve played NFL Survivor, think of NCAA Survivor as packing an entire NFL Survivo
r season into about three weeks — with even more strategy because of how the tournament works. Their tool grades every possible pick based on win odds, popularity, and how saving teams for later rounds impacts your chances to survive the pool.
If you want to get a feel for the strategy side of survivor pools, their NCAA Survivor Strategy Guide is a good place to start:
They also have an article covering where to play NCAA Survivor Pools if you’re looking for one.
I’ll be using it when I put my brackets together next week, and if you’re looking for an edge in your bracket or survivor pool this year, it’s definitely worth checking out.
We are excited about our affiliate deal with our new friends at Betr. Through our partnership, you can sign up now and get $10 free and then a 50% deposit match up to $200 by using the Betting with Bearman sign up link, right here.
Click here to jump down to our Blitzanalytics.co prop of the night. We went 4-2 with our Blitz Analytics plays this past week.
Let’s get you some winning bets to cash.
NBA on the Court
Stephon Castle over 4.5 rebounds
We hit this one in the first half last Monday and are going right back to it as the Bulls defense against guards has softened last in the season.
Data from our friends at BlitzAnalytics.co
Has gone over this number in 7 of the last 10 games. One of the misses was due to an injury, in which he only played 21 minutes and didn’t play the next two games, so you can look at it as 7 of 9.
In those 7 instances, he has gotten 7+ rebounds, so they weren’t sweats.
Had 5 rebounds in November’s matchup with Bulls and that was when the Bulls allowed less than the league average to guards.
Over the last seven games, the Bulls have allowed shooting guards to hit this prop in over 50% of the games, compared to a 39% rate during the season. The guards who have gone over the total are those that are in the top-30 in rebounds at the guard position, as Castle is at 5.1 RPG.
Castle over 4.5 rebounds
Don’t go away! We have some more NBA plays, NCAA Tournament Final Four early preview, nuggets, and much more
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More NBA on the Court
Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Lakers (-15.5, 235.5)
Yep, we are at the "is that too many points" portion of the NBA season. Half, if not more, of the games nowadays enter with that question, along with “who actually is trying?” Don't worry, we will be put out of our misery soon with the postseason nearing, but this is the hand we are dealt in the short-term and I think this is a perfect spot to embrace it.
I don't want to say that the tank is complete, but barring chaos, the Wizards are going to be one of the bottom five teams and that gives them at least 10.5% of the ping pong balls. In theory, I guess they are at "risk" of moving out of the top-3 and thus losing a few, but the point is that the organization has done what it set out to do.
Ideally, Alex Sarr or Tre Johnson suit up but even if they don't this team is giving minutes in bulk to young/hungry players that want to show well. We saw them beat the breaks off of the Jazz in Utah last week and while that's nothing to write home about, it's at least something for those taking the court to be proud of.
But tonight is more about the opponent.
This is the first of three games in a four-day stretch for a Lakers team trying hard to hold onto the three seed in the West (one game clear of the Nuggets, three of the Timberwolves and Rockets). Time is obviously running low on the chasers to catch up, but Los Angeles hosts the Cavs tomorrow and goes to OKC on Thursday, two very losable games. Is it crazy to think that the Lakers prioritize those games and take this opportunity to cost a bit?
This is a lot of points to lay if you believe that to be the case. They weren't in nearly the same schedule spot on Friday (they had Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday off) and yet, their game with the Nets was a one-point contest entering the fourth quarter, forcing them to put 37+ minutes on LeBron, Luka, and Reaves.
That's suboptimal. The fact that we could get a close game entering the final period is one out and so is the Thunder approach of blowing a team out early and resting your big guns late. If that's the case, any deficit under 25 points entering the final stanza could be backdoored by the visitors.
Washington ranks sixth in pace this season and second over their past 15 games. We know they are going to get their shots up and if that's against a Lakers defense that has already turned its attention to the tougher games that await, asking this game to finish inside the number isn't a monumental task.
Yes, I'm aware that the Wiz showed next to no signs of life last night in Portland and that they are simply playing out the string. But we have seen them battle at points recently (trailed the Thunder by just seven entering the fourth quarter less than two weeks ago, lost only two quarters against the Pistons on the second night of a back-to-back before that) and hey, I'm not against a cheap spread that we cover late (March 14 at Boston: down 21 entering the fourth quarter and 17 with under two minutes to play, but end up losing by 11, a margin that would work for us).
Hold your nose on this one.
Wizards +15.5
V.J. Edgecomb over 5.5 rebounds (+115)
Data from our friends at BlitzAnalytics.co
Over last 5 games, averaging 6.8 rebounds per game, 1.3 over tonight’s line
Hit this in five of the last seven games and had 5 in one of the other two.
Miami allows 7.97 rebounds to bigs this season
Bigs go over this line at a 67.8% clip vs. the Heat, including recent:
Siakim 11
Mobley AND Allen 10 each
Wemby 15
Thompson 18
LeBron 15
Diabate 13
Averaging 34.8 MPG this season, seeing a lot of action.
Final Four is set
And then there were four. After 64 games across two-plus weeks, there are four teams left in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan, Arizona, UConn, and Illinois are the champions of their respective regions and will be in Indianapolis for the Round of 4 to determine the national champion.
UConn leads the quartet with six national titles, winning back-to-back in 2023 and 2024. Arizona (1997) and Michigan (1989) each have one title, while Illinois is looking for the school’s first. The two No. 1 seeds left, Arizona and Michigan, will meet in one national semifinal, while UConn, a No. 2 seed, and Illinois, a No. 3 seed meet in the other.
NCAA Tournament Odds to Win
Michigan +170
Arizona +175
Illinois +400
UConn +550
2 UConn vs. 3 Illinois (-2.5, 139.5)
Two schools of thought here. On one hand, I think Illinois is the bigger and better team and has played better throughout the NCAA Tournament.
On the other hand, betting against UConn seems to be fools gold at this point. Dan Hurley is 17-1 in NCAA Tournament games over last 3 seasons, only losing by 2 points to Florida last year. He’s also 17-1 ATS, covering vs. Florida, but not covering in the 2 v 15 matchup in round one vs. Furman.
Statistically, we back Illinois and the top-rated offense in the country (per KenPom). The Illini defense is also 20th, which we saw why late vs. Iowa. Connecticut has the 9th best defense, but it’s offense is 28th, and we saw it struggle for 30 minutes vs. Duke on Sunday.
So.. stats and eye test tell you to go with Illinois, but if UConn can beat one of the most talented teams in the country on an “off night”, what can they do when they are on?
Early prediction: lean UConn +2.5 (official play to come Friday)
1 Michigan (-1.5, 157.5) vs. 1 Arizona
This might be the best matchup we’ve seen it years. Doesn’t mean it’ll be the best game as we may have just witnessed that yesterday, but the two of the best teams squaring off for a chance at their first title in 30-40 years is a nice treat.
This matchup is between the top two teams in KenPom’s rankings, with Michigan No. 1 and Arizona No. 2. Both teams have offensive and defensive rankings in the top 5. And both teams spent time at No. 1 in the polls this season.
The Wolverines are the first team in NCAA history to win 4+ tourney games, while scoring 90+ in all of them.
The Wildcats are incredibly deep, with seven players averaging at least 8.6 points a game.
It’s splitting hairs with these two teams, but if I were to find one edge, it’s that Arizona is deeper and have played better more consistently than Michigan. It’s a thin line, as the two teams have a combined five losses by 23 total points, with the lone different being Arizona won the Big 12 tourney and Michigan lost in the final. Not that that matters as both made it to Indy, but we are looking for the thinnest edge.
Arizona being able to sub in guys that can score at all times for rest or foul trouble or matchups is the little edge I am leaning towards.
Arizona ML (+102). Rather take them ML than get +1.5 for -112.
NHL on the ICE
St. Louis Blues (-110) vs. San Jose Sharks (-110)
Both St. Louis and San Jose are on first period Under streaks as they meet tonight.
The Blues edged the Sharks, 2-1 in overtime on Thursday as the teams played to a scoreless first period. St. Louis hasn't scored a goal in the opening 20 minutes in eight straight games, looking to break that streak tonight.
The Sharks have been held to two goals in the first period in the last six games, while not scoring a goal in the first period in four straight home contests.
Although all the trends point towards a low-scoring first period, I expect a regression and the Over in the opening frame to hit.
Blue/Sharks 1p over (-125)
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
Well the Friday newsletter didn’t do very well at all, but we had a very good Saturday/Sunday giving out picks on Twitter/X in golf, college baseball and basketball.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and how we did overall.
CBB
0-2 in Sweet 16 picks on Friday, losing Michigan State and Duke/St. John’s under
We did hit Arizona -5.5 for Saturday’s Elite 8 matchup and were correct on our Illinois lean
Said to take Arizona live at the half on Saturday night and hit that one.
NBA
Went 1-1 NBA props in Friday’s newsletter, hitting NAW over 3.5 assists, but losing Herro’s points in the blowout loss to Cleveland. Herro was our Blitz play, dropping us to 9-4 with Blitz plays. Still up nicely.
GOLF
Min Woo didn’t win, but we did cash his top-10 ticket (+162) with his T3 finish.
Hojaard top-20 was a cash and he was only 1 shot back entering Sunday’s final round.
Jaeger finished T-28, Scott T-21 and Penge and Brooks missed the cut.
Went 1-1 in our 72-hole matchups, hitting Penge over Gerard (7-8-1 on the season in 72-hole matchups)
We played a lot of round bets Friday-Sunday, going 2-0-2 in matchups and hitting two 3balls for a nice profit. Lost one small matchup parlay.
College Baseball
0-2 on Friday in newsletter, but 3-0 on Sunday, giving picks out on Twitter/X
Betting Tip of the Week
Never Go Higher Than 4 in a Parlay
This is also a personal preference, but I try to never go longer than four sides, totals, or props in a parlay. Sure, the payoff is a lot larger the higher you go, and there’s nothing wrong with going for the lotto ticket from time to time, but in the long run, those don’t hit often and are usually a waste of money.
Stick to what you really know and pick three or four sides/totals/props that you’re strong on. There’s a lot more value in that strategy.
A big announcement for Betting with Bearman
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action
The Valero Texas Open PGA Tour preview
Doug Kezirian on Betting with Bearman
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