Happy Friday everyone! The NBA play-in games will decide the last spots in the postseason, so the playoffs can officially start on Saturday. We have both games covered tonight as well as some thoughts on the first round matchups, an NHL postseason pick, and a bunch of college baseball games. We also dive into head-to-head golf round plays, which we dominated last week at Augusta.
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Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Wednesday, Sirius XM and SportsLine Early Wedge Golf Analyst Jason Sobel joined me to talk RBC Heritage. Next week, we will have a special NFL draft guest
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TrendsCenter Trend of the Day
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We are going to with an MLB one today that is 20-1 overall since 2024, returning 18.9 unites. This might be my favorite one yet. That doesn’t mean it won’t lose, but the stats behind it are pretty good.
Betting on the over in the Yankees game the night after they lose by 7 or more runs.
Take over in Yankees games
Yankees coming off a loss by 7 or more runs
Trend is 20-1, yielding 18.9 units starting with the 2024 season, so it’s fairly recent. This went 10-0 last year.
Over 8.5 (-102)
NBA On the Court - Win or Go Home
9 Charlotte Hornets (-3, 218.5) at 8 Orlando Magic
My lean on this game is to the road dog Charlotte as they are playing better than the Magic, who come and go as Banchero goes and he has not been great in big games.
That said, the Hornets should not have beaten Miami and this is a tough road test for a young team.
Hornets did finish the season 50-32 ATS, best in the NBA, before not covering vs. Miami.
Instead, we will Prop It Like It’s Hot with our friends at BlitzAnalytics.co.
Miles Bridges over 5.5 rebounds
Just had 9 in the first play-in game vs. Miami and has hit this in five out of six games, averaging 7.3 per game
The one miss was in a game where he played only 24 minutes - he had 44 min vs. Miami and should see a lot tonight with the season again on the line.
Averaging 7.8 reb a game when playing 35+ minutes and 5.8 per game when playing 30-34 minutes, both over the 5.5. Combined, it's 6.4 RPG, hitting 58% of time.
The Magic have allowed recent forwards to beat them on the boards, allowing over 10 per game in the last 7 games.
Hit this in 2 of 6 games vs the Magic this season, including both games in Orlando (8/11). Averaging 6.8 RPG game this season vs. Orlando
Don’t go away! We have a play on the 2nd play-in game, FULL RBC Heritage card and a Friday mid-morning play and College Baseball plays, nuggets, and much more
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