Game one of the NFL season is in the books, which means we only have 284 more NFL games to bet on! That’s right, it’s back. And Betting with Bearman is here with you, with advice, trends, thoughts and picks on all the action, including tonight’s game in Brazil.
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NFL Season | ATS | Through 9/5 | ATS |
---|---|---|---|
Favorites | 0-1 | Over | 0-1 |
Underdogs | 0-1 | Under | 1-0 |
Home Fav | 0-1 | Home Dogs | — |
Road Dogs | 1-0 | Road Fav | — |
NFL Week 1 Action
While, the game in Brazil is not on my official card, I do have a lean on the game. Plus it’s a primetime game on a Friday night, right?
Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil
While the Chiefs have won the last seven games vs. the Chargers, objects in the mirror are closer than they appear. The last three matchups were decided by a total of 10 points and only one of the seven wins were by more than a TD. Here are the scores since 2022.
2024 at Chargers: KC 17-10
2024 at Chiefs: KC 19-17
2023 at Chargers: KC 13-12
2022 at Chiefs: KC 31-17
2022 at Chiefs: KC 27-24
2022 at Chargers: KC 30-27
Last year, the Chiefs were 12-0 in one-possession games and have won 17 consecutive one-score games, a feat that seems unreal until you realize who are the head coach and QB.
I am not saying that run ends tonight, but it will end at some point. Could KC win another close one? Yes, and I expect this to be close. Which is why I like the Chargers and the 3 points tonight.
The field was a mess last year in Brazil for the Eagles and Packers, which would play into the Chargers run-first philosophy. The Chiefs offense was not the same last year as in year’s past, finishing T-22nd in yards per play. They were 1st and 9th in their Super Bowl title years of 2022 and 2023., so maybe we should’ve seen the Super Bowl loss coming.
I don’t like betting against the Chiefs anymore than you do, but they were 9-11 ATS last season, so you would’ve made a profit taking the points against them, which is even more impressive considering the NFL favorites had a record-breaking cover percentage. The Chiefs just weren’t one of them.
When all is said and done, this still might be a 12-13 win Chiefs team and a Chargers team that fights for a Wild Card, but in Week 1, I am taking the points.
Stick around for more, our entire Week 1 card in the premium section below.
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