Happy Friday everyone. Just got back from watching the Giants thrash the Super Bowl champion Eagles down at MetLife, something no one expected. We missed our prop in that game, but plenty more to bet this weekend. We have a full slate of CFB and NFL action for you.
Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we have the NFL covered from head to toe with a special guest, Sia Nejad, host of the Early Edge on CBS Sportsline.
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NFL Season | ATS | Through 9/5 | ATS |
---|---|---|---|
Favorites | 38-40 | Over | 37-41 |
Underdogs | 40-38 | Under | 41-37 |
Home Fav | 25-24 | Home Dogs | 15-14 |
Road Dogs | 24-25 | Road Fav | 14-15 |
Includes games in Brazil, Ireland and London
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NFL Week 6 Action
Ok, we have been red hot in props the last few weeks but getting our game totals burned as the Titans/Cardinals and Panthers/Dolphins all had late scores last week to blow those two. And I loved the Giants at the Saints last week and seemed to be a week too early as the Giants team I watched last night at MetLife was the one I thought was going to show up in New Orleans. Stay with the process. Process over results. Something like that.
On to Week 6!
NFL Main Side/Total Plays (including primetime games): 9-12-1
- Sides: 4-5-1
- Totals: 5-7
Main Props (including primetime games): 34-14 (0-1 last night)
Total: 43-26-1
Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5, 41.5)
We were on the Titans/Cardinals under 41.5 last week and the late game shenanigans cost us what looked like a solid under win. My philosophy on betting is to not run away from a bad beat, but to look at the process and if it’s sound, keep going. We were on the right side, but got wrong results.
The Titans offense is still bad, despite their 16-point fourth quarter. They are still 31st in yards, 32nd in yards per play and last in points per game at 14.6. The Raiders are slightly better, scoring 16.6 points per game. These are two of the worst four offenses in the NFL (29th and 32nd) per DVOA.
We could get some more nonsense of Geno Smith pick 6s or other things that hurt this under, but with two bad offenses, we like to go under.
Under 41.5
Stick around for more, our entire Week 1 card in the premium section below.
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