It’s going to be a great three days of sports action as we have the World Series getting underway tonight, full NBA and NHL slates and, of course, football action all weekend.
We got off to a good start last night, hitting our +715 Same Game Parlay that was in the premium section. We also should’ve had the Jefferson prop but the Vikings were a disaster in the second half.
Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we have the NFL and CFB covered from head to toe and dip into the NBA futures with a special guest, Austin Swaim from FanDuel Research.
Also, upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.
NFL Season | ATS | Through 10/24 | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
Favorites | 53-53 | Over | 58-51 |
Underdogs | 53-53 | Under | 51-58 |
Home Fav | 32-31 | Home Dogs | 22-21 |
Road Dogs | 31-32 | Road Fav | 21-22 |
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NFL Week 8 Action
While, INTRO
NFL Main Side/Total Plays (including primetime games): 14-14-1
- Sides: 6-6-1
- Totals: 8-8
Main Props (including primetime games): 43-22
Total: 57-36-1
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5, 46.5)
Despite having one of the worst defenses in football (26th in yards, 32nd rush yards, 32nd DVOA, 29th in points), the Dolphins are also the only team in the NFL to be 6-1 to the under.
How does this make sense, you ask? Well, they are also 29th in time of possession. Combine that with the 32nd against the run and the picture is this: they can’t get off the field and allow long, run-controlled drives all game long. Take Week 1 vs Indy. The Colts did not punt once all game and the game still went under the total. Oh, and the offense can’t move the ball either. But when they do, it’s short, quick passes or runs. Miami averages 5.15 yards per play, 21st in the NFL.
The combination of not being able to stop the run, not being able to move the ball and continuously extending opponents drives with penalties leads to unders. They even gave Cleveland 14 free points off Tua Interceptions and the game stayed under 40.
As far as Atlanta, 4th-best rushing team, 4th-beat Time of Possession team and 28th in scoring (18.3 PPG), 29th in red zone offense. Again, long drives (we saw a 10-min one last night vs. Niners), using the run and poor execution in the red zone.. that is also a good under sign.
Miami may never get off the field vs. Bijan Robinson and this one looks like a nice 24-10 Atlanta win.
Under 46.5
Stick around for more, our entire Week 8 card in the premium section below.
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