Futures Begin to Cash; Bills-Texans Kickoff Week 12's NFL Action

Happy Wednesday betting friends. We will do our best to follow up Monday’s perfect 3-0 main slate with some more wins tonight and tomorrow. Monday’s picks were all free, which hopefully means you will want to upgrade for today, Thursday and Friday’s picks!

While we give our NBA play out for free tonight, our juicy TNF player prop, SGP and NHL plays are all worth an upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.

We also like to get ahead on Betting with Bearman, so we have our Thursday Night Football card, featuring a player prop pick off the AFC East matchup between the Jets and Patriots, as well as our Same Game Parlay, props and plays for the book promos that are offered.

We also take a look at our Futures portfolio (we already cashed one last weekend!) and hit on an NBA and NHL game.

Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we will have the NFL and some golf covered with out special guest, Pat Mayo from the Mayo experience.

Let’s get to it!

These two teams played less than two weeks ago (130-120 win for the 76ers), but this game projects a bit different and I'm leaning in with a SGP.

That loss is Toronto's only setback since Halloween and while they aren't a perfect team, they are leaning into what they are. They want to push tempo and leverage their plethora of slashers, something that lines up well against a 76ers team that is the worst transition defense in the league.

Part of that is a Joel Embiid stat and he is doubtful to play tonight, but there are two sides of that coin. Scottie Barnes fouled out in the first meeting between these two, committing three shooting fouls on the foul magnet that is Philadelphia's center. Any gains that their fast break defense gets from the lumbering Embiid likely being out is more than offset by the top-heavy Raptors staying out of foul trouble.

Toronto won the first quarter by 10 points in that first matchup and we've seen the 76ers struggle out of the gates (-2.1 PPG in first quarters this season, ninth worst). Their star guards wear you down with time and that's fine, but teams have been able to manage this offense in the first 12 minutes. In fact, Kelly Oubre has been their most effective first quarter player and he's already been ruled out with a knee injury.

When the Raptors have the ball, it's a committee scoring approach, but Brandon Ingram is slowly taking the lead. He leads the team in drives (10.3 per game, 19.8% more than any of his teammates) and he seems to be the member of this team with the highest usage floor (7+ FTA in four of his past five games and 15+ shots in five of his past six). The jump shot has always been inconsistent, but 3-of-17 this season on open triples?

He's converted 76.5% of his shots at the rim and is a weapon in the midrange (51.2% FG on two-point attempts not at the rim). He scored 21 points in the first meeting, a game where he shot just 41.2% from the field and saw the other three primary players score at a more efficient level.

Math is working in his favor and the subtraction of a wing defender in Oubre helps, so let's tie it all together on FanDuel.

SGP: Raptors first quarter, Raptors moneyline, Brandon Ingram over 20.5 points (+342)

A bonus play.. and in same game: VJ Edgecombe over 23.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists

We took Edgecombe over 3.5 assists on Monday and won that easily as he had 6. His usage is way up with the 76ers dealing with injuries to Embiid, Oubre, and Paul George. With that trio off the court, he has averaged 29.3 PRA per 36 minutes this season. His last two games have gone 26 and 28 PRA and, as noted above, the Raptors love to push the pace, which means more opportunities for VJ. He had 22 PRA in this exact matchup 11 days ago WITH Embiid and Oubre in the lineup.

He only has 2 turnovers in his last 109 minutes, which means his ball security has been better as well. 83% of his shots come from either inside 10 feet or beyond the 3-pt line, which is where we expect the pace of this game to be with a total of 233.5.

I am taking Edgecombe over 23.5 PRA on it’s own. If you want to add it to the SGP above, that increases the SGP to +852

Stick around for our Thursday Night Football play and SGP below