Futures Have Cashed; Cowboys-Lions Kickoff Week 14's NFL Action

Happy Wednesday, betting friends. We are counting our cash as we hit two more preseason win totals this week with the Jaguars and Broncos overs hitting by Week 13. Added to the Utah one that hit two weeks ago and we have 3 winners already!

We also started the week nicely on Monday with wins on both our MNF props, almost hitting our SGP and hitting 1 of 2 NBA props. We will try to follow it up today with big NBA card and 5 NHL games.

While we give our NBA play out for free tonight, our juicy TNF player prop, SGP and NHL plays are all worth an upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.

We also like to get ahead on Betting with Bearman, so we have our Thursday Night Football card, featuring a player prop pick off the big NFC matchup between the Cowboys and Lions, as well as our Same Game Parlay, props and plays for the book promos that are offered.

We also take a look at our Futures portfolio, which two just hit and give some picks on an NBA and NHL game.

Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we will have the CFB championship games covered from head to toe with CFB analyst Joe DeLeon.

Let’s get to it!

It’s a busy Wednesday NBA card with 9 games on the card.

The sportsbooks (maybe more accurately, the betting industry) have taken a side. For better or worse, they've taken a stance and that rarely happens.

So we play the other side.

This game features two offenses that rank top-6 in pace and two of the top-4 defenses. Two of the top-10 teams in corner 3PA and two of the top-4 defenses in terms of opponent 3P%.

There are a ton of trends like this for this game: elite offensive upside running into some shutdown defensive metrics. With a total in the 240's, the industry is pretty clearly expecting the offensive firepower to win out in a big way.

But should the market reflect such confidence?

Neither team has a reason to "rest" on defense (neither played last night and neither plays tomorrow) and more importantly than that, we just have more in the way of plus-defensive data that I think presents itself over the course of 48 minutes to make a total like this tough to reach.

For the season, these are two of the seven worst offensive rebounding teams, two of the 10 best at avoiding fouling, and both hold their own in preventing quick scores (Dallas is hovering around league average and Miami is fifth best on a points per transition attempt basis).

I'm not suggesting that all of those factors play out for all 48 minutes, but for pockets of time? I think so and that's all we really need with a total like this. We just saw this matchup nine days ago with the same total and while every game is like a snowflake in it's unique nature, that game finished at 208 points.

The teams probably don't combine to make just 17 of 67 triples tonight like they did last week, but that's not the point. They had one bad quarter (39 total points in Q1) and it basically made hitting this number impossible in regulation.

I think there's a good chance they all play, but there are three impactful players labeled as questionable and I think this line is assuming they all play, leaving us with only value to gain should they sit. Norm Powell is having a career year and is dealing with an ankle injury. Pelle Larson isn't a household name, but he had a stretch in November where he scored in double figures in seven of eight games and with 56.7% of his points this season coming via 3PM or FTM, he's the type of analytically sound scorer that can impact a total. PJ Washington is dealing with an ankle injury of his own for the Mavs ... he's missed consecutive games and scored a dozen more points than any of his teammates in the last meeting with Miami.

There will be runs. And it might happen early. But over the course of a four-quarter game, one quarter checking in around 50 total points puts us in position and that's the side I'm taking..

Under 240.5

Stick around for our Thursday Night Football play and SGP below