Happy Friday everyone. We saw the first four teams get into the Elite 8 last night in Arizona, Purdue, Illinois, and Iowa. Just how you drew it up. The loaded East Regional goes tonight in DC and the Midwest in Chicago to determine the other four spots.
While we give out one of our college basketball plays for free tonight in the newsletter, our complete NCAA Tournament analysis, NBA props/sides, Houston Open golf card and College Baseball plays are all worth an upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. This week, we had Sports Betting Analyst Doug Kezirian, formerly of ESPN, on to break down the four NCAA Tournament regions, give out Final Four predictions and plays for Thursday and Friday’s action.
You know that I only recommend tools I actually use, and PoolGenius is what I’ll be using this year when I build out my March Madness brackets and play in a few NCAA Survivor pools.
They’re offering discounts for the Betting with Bearman family if you want to check it out.
One thing a lot of people miss with bracket pools is that winning isn’t really about predicting every game correctly — it’s about understanding what everyone else in your pool is picking and finding the right spots to differentiate. PoolGenius shows public pick rates alongside win probabilities and then generates optimized brackets based on your pool settings, which makes the process a lot more strategic.
They also have an NCAA Survivor tool, which is pretty unique. If you’ve played NFL Survivor, think of NCAA Survivor as packing an entire NFL Survivo
r season into about three weeks — with even more strategy because of how the tournament works. Their tool grades every possible pick based on win odds, popularity, and how saving teams for later rounds impacts your chances to survive the pool.
If you want to get a feel for the strategy side of survivor pools, their NCAA Survivor Strategy Guide is a good place to start:
They also have an article covering where to play NCAA Survivor Pools if you’re looking for one.
I’ll be using it when I put my brackets together next week, and if you’re looking for an edge in your bracket or survivor pool this year, it’s definitely worth checking out.
We are excited about our affiliate deal with our new friends at Betr. Through our partnership, you can sign up now and get $10 free and then a 50% deposit match up to $200 by using the Betting with Bearman sign up link, right here.
Click here to jump down to our Blitzanalytics.co prop of the night. We hit each of the last two nights and are 3-1 this week, 9-3 overall.
March Madness Continues
5 St. John’s vs. 1 Duke (-6.5, 141.5)
Both Duke and St. John’s are top-10 in defense and showed it over the weekend. Duke’s two games this tourney have been 136 and 139, and the Johnnies have played to 132 and 132.
While that’s a small sample size, let’s look at the defenses. Since getting blown out the door by UConn on Feb 25, not only have St. John’s not lost since then, they’ve allowed more than 70 points once and that was 72 to Providence. The Jonnies have allowed 62.8 PPG over that span.
During Duke’s current 13-game win streak (dating back to the loss to UNC), they’ve allowed more than 70 also… 1 time. To Florida State in the nail-biter in ACC quarterfinals. 67 PPG over this span.
Both teams would have to allow over 70 for this to hit the over. Possible, but not the way they are both currently playing.
With Patrick Ngongba II limited and Caleb Foster missing the last 3 weeks, the Duke offense hasn’t been the same and has seen a lot more turnovers, which is not what you want vs. St. John’s.
Under 141.5 (for the record, I also like St. John’s +6.5, but not official play)
Stick around for the rest of NCAA Tournament content and betting data, our top NBA and NHL plays, Houston PGA picks and starting some college baseball this weekend!
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