How Good are the Phillies Bats? Welcome Back NFL

Happy Monday to all Betting with Bearman followers! Hopefully you had a good weekend on and off the betting landscape. We have a couple of golf winners, NFL preseason winners and even a NASCAR checkered flag.

We recap the weekend below and look ahead to a busier week in sports now that the NFL is back.

Remember to download and listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast at Apple and Spotify, where we discuss all of this and more. In the latest podcast, I was joined by Jarrett Bailey of Bleav in Steelers podcast and we discussed betting plays for the AFC North.

On Tuesday, we will drop an AFC South betting preview, continuing the divisional betting breakdowns. Later in the week, we will have AFC East and NFC West ones as well.

Philadelphia Phillies (+104, Taijuan Walker) at Cincinnati Reds (-126, Andrew Abbott)

The first game on the slate to open the week is my favorite for the day (6:10p ET).

Philadelphia isn’t a perfect team, but their construction has produced elite results. Sure, the win-loss record is impressive, but what has my attention is the fact that this team, in a sport of variance, hasn’t lost more than two games in a row since late June.

It’s August. We just had preseason NFL games on our TV this weekend and I’m talking about a run that started in June. Two and a half months worth.

Their pitching is certainly a part of that (Walker hasn’t walked a batter in three straight outings), but it’s the hitting which is why we are backing this spot.

The Fightin’ Phils own the 10th highest barrel rate this season and the very best since returning from the All-Star Break. The names you know are doing what you’d expect, but strong form from Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh have added a level of depth to this order that makes them so difficult to shut down for nine innings.

Barrels + Launch Angle = Profit

The Philadelphia hit tool is here to stay and based on what we’ve seen from Andrew Abbott up to this point, getting the ball in the air isn’t going to be an issue. Among the 94 qualified starting pitchers, he owns the fourth highest average launch angle against (20.3 degrees), a rate that isn’t going anywhere (20.2 degrees since the beginning of July).

Jordan Romano has largely impressed over the past month, I like Matt Strahm more than most, and closer Jhoan Duran is more than just the greatest entrance in sports. Let’s divide three units in this game, half going to the road team to win the first five innings (+105) and half for the full game (+104). If you want further exposure, betting the Phillies to go over their team total is live (4.5, -120) and, in that vein, betting them to be the highest scoring team of the day is on a decent dart throw (+1300), but not an official play.

Connecticut Sun at Golden State Valkyries (-8.5, 156.5)

Our lone WNBA game of the night features the worst team in the league in the 5-25 Sun vs the expansion Valkyries, who are a surprising 15-15.

I’m not sure I’m buying the Sun as a top-5 defense, the level they’ve been playing at for the past two weeks, but I do like seeing that form against a team that is pretty predictable in terms of where their shot attempts are going to come from (45.4% of their FGA come from downtown, no other team is at even 42%).

If they can chase the Valkyrie off of the three-point line, I think there’s a real chance that 78 points wins this game, something that has been the case in five of Golden State’s past six games.

For you math wizards out there – yes, if the winning team fails to get past 78 points, this game is going under the total.

Connecticut’s league worst assist-to-turnover ratio reflects their inconsistencies on that end of the floor. That’s a flaw that gets exposed most nights and it only feeds into our bet tonight as the home team operates at the slowest pace in the league (over the past two weeks and for the season). If the Sun aren’t able to generate a high shot total and the Valkyrie are struggling to reach their 3PA quota, how exactly is this game playing to the listed total?

With the Sun playing in Vegas last night (lost by 8) and home against Chicago on Wednesday, we are looking at a bad team in a tough scheduling spot. In a back-to-back and against a slow moving opponent, I prefer to bet against the possession count than the road team feeling the need to close out a cover of 8.5.

The backdoor could swing open late for spread bettors and that always a concern. If Golden State dominates the way I think they are capable, they cover and Connecticut doesn’t score nearly enough to set our total ticket (under 156.5) up in flames.

Betting the Sun team total under (73.5) is also an option, but again, I worry about the back door should the home team make this a laugher through three quarters. At the end of the day, I think all similar angles cash. I’ve got this as something like an 85-65 final. Yes, that’s technically a little higher on the “winner score” than stated earlier, something that could happen if Connecticut dictates tempo early before Golden State assumes control.

How did we do? Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and everything else we know about the sports betting world over the last few days.

How did the weekend go in the world of Sports Betting?

Filter Through the Noise

This is probably my favorite tip and arguably the most important when trying to be a sharper bettor.

Everyone has their system or their way of attacking the lines. I am more of an aggregator of information, meaning I gather all the info I can in order to make the best decision. With that comes a lot of noise to filter through, which is the first step in trying to decide what to use and what not to use.

There is no perfect science, but historical betting stats that go too far back (different coaches/players) or small sample sizes are usually just noise. Settle on relevant stats or trends that help you and trusted sources that make you smarter. That will help you in the long run

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