How Much Value is There on the Broncos as Home Dogs? PGA Tour Hits Cali

Happy Wednesday betting friends. We have NFL Championship weekend and the 2nd PGA Tour event of the season to keep us warm.

WE also have 7 NBA games and 6 NHL games to choose from tonight.

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Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we had CBS Sportsline’s Sia Nejad on last week breaking down the NFL and golf slates. This afternoon, we will release another podcast, this one with ESPB Netting analyst Anita Marks on.

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Let’s get to it!

Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks (-11.5, 223.5)

The battle for the city might be an ugly display of basketball.

The big spread tells you all you need to know about the talent discrepancy and we could attack it from that angle, but that's a big number to cover against a Nets team that has just enough gunners to walk through the backdoor if given the opportunity (it's worth noting that the Knicks have a six games in nine days stretch coming up).

So let's take that off the table.

Both of these teams are bottom-8 in pace and top-7 in percentage of points that are scored from downtown. What that says to me is that we could see a very low-scoring stretch in this contest, something that is rare in today's game.

If the possession count is going to be limited and neither team is too interested in getting high percentage looks near the rim, a few misses in a row could quickly turn into a drought that lasts a few minutes or has a quarter where they struggle to clear 50 minutes.

If both of these teams aren't pushing for at least 105 points, getting to this total is going to be an uphill battle and I think that's what we are looking at. The Knicks rank eighth best in terms of percentage of opponent 3PA that are tagged as "wide open" and their offense has been sputtering of late (50.5% eFG% in January, down from 57.6% in December).

If you fear them heating up (they are healthy and trying to right the ship having seen them lose nine of 11), Brooklyn team total under 105.5 points is very much in play. Personally, I don't fear overtime and with Josh Hart seemingly fully back after a few missed weeks, this team can rebound in the results department without lighting up the scoreboard.

Pick: under 224.5 points

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