How To Play Game 5 of NBA Finals; Florida Panthers Have One Hand on Cup

Welcome back and hope everyone had a great Father’s Day Weekend! The Florida Panthers are one win from back-to-back titles, which would be the 9th title for South Florida’s professional teams and make this author very happy, both personally and financially:).

Before we get to that, we have a tie to break in the NBA Finals as Game 5 is tonight in OKC. We will also recap an exciting and ridiculous U.S. Open final round and get you ready for the week ahead in Omaha.

We’ve had a couple of good winning weeks to get this started and hope to continue. Spread the word and have your friends sign up!

Game 5: Pacers at Thunder (-9.5, 224.5)

The NBA Title is now down to a Best-of-3 between these two teams, with Game 5 in Oklahoma City. These teams have played four times in this series and have at least two more meetings left on the books before a champion is crowned, nothing is a surprise to anyone at this point.

If we are looking to boil Indiana’s strategy down to its simplest form, it’s to launch threes and have Tyrese Haliburton control their fate. The question is, how do we best leverage this knowledge in a championship series that has the eyes of every single basketball fan?

Betting with Bearman says: Creativity, that’s how. The casual bettor isn’t too likely to explore “goofy” markets and they might be even less likely to swallow juice with their bets … so why not do both?

DraftKings offers head-to-head markets that pair one player on each team against one another in a specific stat. You can bet if Jalen Williams will cover a 3.5-point spread against Pascal Siakam or if Andrew Nembhard will pull off the +310 upset and out-assist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander outright.

We won’t be doing either one of those bets, but the general idea of drilling down on a granular market like this is interesting. Much like games, where both teams are lined, there is an over/under listed. That’s where I think we can pounce with confidence.

Understanding the bare bones of what Indiana wants to do on offense (win the math game and keep their best player on the court), we can tell a story that tailors to a very specific prop. Chet Holmgren is the heavy favorite to record more blocks than Tyrese Haliburton with a total set at 2.5.

That implies that one of these players blocks multiple shots to cash the over and there’s a chance it requires one of them to swat three shots should the other be held without a rejection. This is where we jump in.

The anti-Halibuton (eight blocks over his past 14 games) angle is reasonably straightforward in that Indiana doesn’t have much motivation to put their best player in harm's way. Combine that with Oklahoma City’s propensity for midrange shots that come with a low block rate and a zero from him puts us into a favorable spot

As for Holmgren, he’s playing much better of late and that’s great to be, but protecting the paint isn’t really on his to-do list. He’s blocked just three shots in his 164 minutes during this season and that’s not the result of running cold on variance, it’s a reflection of a lack in opportunity.

The Pacers have no desire to put pressure on the rim and with Holmgren’s offensive aggression ramping up over the past two games (17 PPG and 7.5 FTA, up from 10.5 PPG and 2.0 FTA prior) in addition to the big starting lineup, it’s fair to project him for some regression of defensive responsibilities.

I don’t think that either of these players blocks three shots and if you’re with me there, even some juice isn’t enough to talk me off of this line.

Pick: Chet Holmgren and Tyrese Haliburton to combine for under 2.5 blocks (-140, DraftKings)

The MVP markets are the way they are for a reason and I largely agree with those prices, but there is no denying that Jalen Williams is playing at an elite level. The recent scoring binge (53 points over the last two games after totaling 36 through Game 2) is low-hanging fruit that is easy to latch onto, but those are often the least advantageous markets to target: if every highlight show is driving home the same narrative, you can rest assured that the sportsbooks are charging you a hefty price to lean into it.

Fear not, we can still back Williams as his role adjusts. During the Finals, he’s averaging 9.8 rebounds-plus-assists, a fine number at face value, but one that is more reflective of a floor than a mean outcome moving forward.

On the rebounding side of things, he’s been unfortunate up to this point. Against the Pacers, his rebound conversion rate sits at 51.2%, well short of his rate through the first three series’ this postseason (55.4%) and not in the same tax bracket as his regular season mark (62.7%).

The Pacers are, at best, an average rebounding team and that has me believing that Williams is more likely to trend toward his established season average rate than hang around his current number.

During these playoffs, prior to the Finals, Williams' average depth of rebound was 8.3 feet, 18.1% higher than what he’s posted against Indiana. The longer the rebound bounces away from the bucket, the more variance that is introduced to the equation. A greater rebound distance also suggests less aggression – you’re not ending up with long boards if you're actively crashing the glass, right?

Williams has seen his rebound total increase each game during this series (4-5-6-7) while running cold in terms of the predictive rates, leading me to believe the 5.5 he’s averaged on the game’s biggest stage is on the low end of what we should expect moving forward.

I’m optimistic on the rebounding side of things and the outlook projects just as well as an offensive creator. We saw more pick-and-roll situations with Williams as the ball-handler in Game 4 and Gilgeous-Alexander as the screener. That, naturally, puts him in a position to be aggressive (no real threat of a double team unless Indiana really trusts their rotations – they aren’t coming off of SGA and if they elect to jump the screen and rush the rotations on the back-end, Williams has more than proven his ability to decode a defense in a hurry and make the right play. If that’s the case, we are betting on OKC’s secondary players making wide open shots at home or their bigs converting inside of 10-feet and I’m perfectly OK with that wager.

A slightly underrated part of the inverted pick-and-roll is that it incentivizes Williams to do even more work on the defensive glass, as it results in clean run ins to the offense with him as the primary ball handler

That’s the beauty of a combination prop like this for a player like Williams. Would you be absolutely shocked if he produced a double double with points and rebounds? What about points and assists? We have three potential paths to cashing – a huge rebounding game, a huge assist game, or a balanced evening where he does a bit of everything for a team that is asking more of him with each passing day.

Pick: Jalen Williams rebounds plus assists over 10.5 (-122, FanDuel)

Game 5 Data from BetMGM
Pacers at Thunder (-9.5, 224.5)

Updated MVP Odds
SGA -600
Siakim +800
Haliburton +900

The Florida Panthers are 3 periods away from their second consecutive Stanley Cup title and host Edmonton with a chance to win the Cup on Tuesday night. Our Panthers to win the Cup (+1000) and Series to Go 7 tickets are still alive and well, though I think it ends in 6 now.

There won’t be a newsletter on Tuesday, so we will give the pick here, but you already know what the pick is if you have been reading this or following me on social media (@davidbearmanPFN).

We have done it all five games of the SCF, have won it all five games and we are not stopping now. Over 1.5 goals in the first period is still only -140, so the bet has already been made. You might be thinking, well it can’t keep happening, right? I should be the other side at some point, right? Regression to the mean, yada, yada, right?

No. While it is certainly possible the two play a low-scoring first period, I play on the numbers and the numbers say keep pounding away. The style and pattern these two play all points to goals in the first, which is what they have done and that outweighs anyone’s “gut feeling” it’ll go the other way. There simply is no proof of that other than conjecture. Let’s look at the numbers:

There are still some who would say, “well it has to go the other way eventually”. I counter with, “it’s not like this bet has been so close that it has to go the other way”. While it’s been more of a sweat recently, let’s look game by game.

Game 1: 2 goals in first 10:49; 3 goals total
Game 2: 2 goals in first 7:39; 5 goals total
Game 3: 2nd goal was at 17:45 mark, but 1st goal was 56 seconds in, giving us entire period for that late goal
Game 4: 1st goal at 11:40, our longest wait; 3 total goals with 2nd at 16:56; Panthers had 17 first period shots
Game 5: 1st goal at 9:12; 2nd goal at 18:41, our biggest sweat to date

So other than Game 5, which saw a lot less shots than the first 4 games, we really have not sweated this one. That’s a long ways to say, we are still taking over 1.5 first period goals (-140) and not thinking twice.

Game 5 Data from BetMGM
Oilers (+125) at Panthers (-150), 6.5

The Game 5 winner of an NBA Finals tied at 2 game apiece has gone on to win the NBA title in 23 of 31 previous chances, showing you how important tonight’s game is.

As far as the betting landscape, each of the last 5 teams to win Game 5 went on to cover Game 6, with 4 of them winning outright to take the title (The 2013 Spurs covered Game 6 in Miami but did not win the game)

Philadelphia Phillies (-112, Mick Abel) at Miami Marlins (+108, Sandy Alcantara), 8.5

Baseball might be the most difficult sport to bet day-to-day because of the ever evolving data. Last week, I was in on the Marlins and Sandy Alcantara, and less than a week later, I’m spending those dollars on the other side.

Last Tuesday, we made money in Pittsburgh with Alcantara shutting down the inconsistent Pirates for six solid innings. Based on his pitch diet and where the Buccos struggle, he was in one of the better spots he could ask for. Tonight, while still in good form, he takes his changing pitch repertoire into a matchup with a team that should be able to do some serious damage.

Alcantara Usage Rate, Fastballs + Cutters
2022: 24.2%
2023: 25.5%
2024: 23.5%
2025: 40.2%

With him committing to this reinvention of himself, Alcantara is as much of a matchups pitcher as there is in the game. There are only five teams with a higher cumulative pitch value mark when facing fastballs or cutters than the Phillies this season, putting them on the short list of teams that are thrilled to see Alcantara on their schedule.

Mick Abel only has three starts on his MLB resume and that makes it difficult to evaluate him with confidence. That said, he looked great in two outings against Blue Jays and Pirates (both bottom-10 ISO teams) with eight hits and one earned run allowed in 11.1 innings while being victimized by the long ball against the Cubs on Tuesday (three homers allowed in his four innings of work).

I’ll give you one guess as to what bucket the Fish fall into – feared power hitters or flawed offense. Up to this point, them ranking outside of the top-20 in both average launch angle and exit velocity has Miami checking in at 25th when it comes to their ISO ranking.

For now, I’m proceeding with cautious optimism. Abel is not someone I plan on backing with regularity (the Mets, Braves, and Padres project as his next three opponents), but in this specific spot, I think he does enough to get the road team to the house tonight (Phillies -112) and I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to lay the 1.5 runs (+128).

I won’t need to convince you much more to bet against the Marlins, but if you needed more… the Marlins swept the Nationals over the weekend, victories that all came by two or fewer runs. The Phillies are also playing good ball (four consecutive victories), but the bullpen hasn’t been taxed with high leverage innings in nearly the same way (29-8 scoring differential in those games).

Last week in “Betting with Bearman”, we said we liked a Coastal Carolina-LSU final. Well, we are about halfway to having two live tickets as Coastal is in the driver’s seat at 2-0 in Bracket 1 and LSU plays for the same tonight vs. UCLA. Arkansas squares off in an elimination game vs. Murray State to start the day.

The moneylines are two rich for us to play tonight, but I would not I would not be surprised to see the first game go over 11.5 runs. The Racers, while being a great story, have not had great pitching, even in the wins. Prior to giving up 10 total runs over last two games, they had allowed 7+ in 5 straight games. Arkansas’s potent offense was quiet vs. LSU’s ace, but expect some bounce back out of them today.

How did we do? Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and everything else we know about the sports betting world over the last few days.

What Else Happened This Weekend?

To Hedge or Not To Hedge

With multiple titles decided this week, this is as good of a time as any to ask that question.

I’ll start this section by saying hedging isn’t for everyone. The mathematicians and EV+ bettors will correctly tell you that you lose value when hedging and it’s not worth the price. However, I’m also a fan of guaranteed money, so, in the right spot, I advocate for it.

For example, if you have a four-leg parlay for 10-1 and the first three legs win, you could hedge at whatever value you feel comfortable at, guaranteeing yourself a profit on the bet.

Yes, you are taking value away, as noted above, and may only get 8-1 value. But you’re also putting cash in your pocket and avoiding losing that last leg. I’m not saying hedge down the middle, but I’m a fan of getting your original bet back or even doubling it to snatch that profit. If you have a 10-1 futures bet that enters the championship round, you can guarantee yourself a profit on the season-long bet. Sure, it’s not going to be 10-1 anymore and that might persuade you not to hedge it, but you can also get some money.

This topic deserves its own page or book, but it’s really a personal preference.

Baseball can be a cruel sport to bet, especially over 9 innings, which is why “Betting with Bearman” usually takes first five inning bets or anything that avoids the bullpen. You are usually betting on a starter and who knows what happens when that guy leaves the game.

Such as Saturday night, when the Padres (+155) took a 7-3 lead into the bottom of the 9th vs. the Diamondbacks. 3 singles later, the bases were loaded, followed by an infield RBI single that originally ruled out and then a 3-run triple and then RBI fielder’s choice. What once was a great bet on the underdog Padres ended with a loss… unless you live bet the Diamondbacks of course. If you did, good job!

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