Happy Monday Betting family! It’s Super Bowl week, and while I’m not in the Bay Area this year, I will be right here passing along tons of Super Bowl content and betting information and tips throughout the week.
We also have 4 NBA games and 10 NHL games, all indoors, for us to choose from on the Groundhog’s Day.
While today, like all Monday’s are FREE, make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had Mayo Media Network’s Geoff Fienberg on to discuss the Farmers Insurance Open and early Super Bowl thoughts. This week we will bring back The Ringer’s Raheem Palmer for all things Super Bowl 60.
I am also going to help you in your golf pools with One and Done picks AND access to some awesome golf tools that you can use to help with your pool. Head over to PoolGenius and get Discounts courtesy of Betting with Bearman. We have one of the best non-Majors of the year this week in the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
We are excited to announce an affiliate deal with our new friends at Betr. Through our partnership, you can sign up now and get $10 free and then a 50% deposit match up to $200 by using the Betting with Bearman sign up link, right here. We are also going to be sending out Betr plays every newsletter and are 2-0 so far! We have a free play below.
Today, we are going to give a free one out to start, so here is the Betr play today. XXXX. Make sure to check me out on Twitter/X for more daily Betr plays. We went 4-2 last week with our Betr plays, turning a profit.
Our analysis is below.
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NBA on the Court
Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5, 220.5)
The Clips are playing as well as they have all season right now and that makes fading them at home a bit uncomfortable, but the back-end of a back-to-back is always a shaky bet with a Kawhi Leonard centric team.
He wasn’t available for their last zero rest contest … they fell in Chicago by 28 points (-21 points in transition). I’m expecting Joel Embiid (January: 29.7 points, 53.7% FG, and 36.2% from 3) to be active (ankle) and Philly has won five of the past six when their star center laces’em up.
With Embiid typically comes fewer possessions and a lower opponent rebound rate. Those trends track and they figure to be even more impactful tonight than most.
This season, Los Angeles is 11-17 when getting out-rebounded and 6-9 in their 15 slowest games. When Embiid has been on the court, the 76ers have been able to dictate and when the Clippers are forced into a different style of play, they’ve struggled this season.
We got news of the Paul George suspension this weekend and that just means a more concentrated offense (Embiid and Maxey took 47.9% of their shots in a 10-point win over the Pelicans). This is a tougher opponent, but in a star driven league, if you can work through your elite players at a high level like that, you’re in a good spot.
You’ll need to keep an eye on the injury report. If all players are active (James Harden missed last night due to personal reasons), I’m OK with this lean. Should Embiid sit in favor of playing tomorrow, the handicap changes, but with him labeled as probable for this the first game of their last back-to-back pre-All Star Break, I don’t mind sprinkling now to get a point or two of value before the injury reports are finalized.
76ers +2.5 (Only if Embiid plays)
Don’t go away! We have some more NBA plays, NHL game of the night and more content on Super Bowl 60
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More NBA on the Court
Andrew Nembhard over 7.5 assists
Nembhard has hit his assists prop (at 6.5 or 7.5) in 10 of his last 12 games.
Over the 10-game stretch, he has 9+ assists in the 10 overs with 5 and 6 in the other two. He has averaged 9.4 assists over this span and 10.6 assists over last 5 games.
His opponent, Houston, is 26th in the NBA against point guards, giving up 7.6 assists per game to PGs, one full assist over the league average.
Houston also plays at a fast pace (101.2), while Indiana is right there at 98.8, giving Nembhard more chances on the Pacers side.
He’s the primary ball-handler and will dish to Siakam, Turner and Toppin, all good finishers.
Ivica Zubac Over 10.5 Rebounds
·76ers defense is 23rd in rebounds allowed to C and 24th in defensive rebounding overall
Zubac has hit his rebounding prop in all 10 games this season vs. bad rebounding teams (bottom 10), averaging close to 13 rebounds per game in those contests.
It’s a back-to-back for the Clippers, which is usually bad, but Zubac has been great in those B2B scenarios, averaging 11.3 reb a game (7 times).
Zubac has 10+ rebounds in 7 of last 10 games.
NHL on the Ice
Courtesy of Kevin Rogers
Detroit Red Wings (+168) at Colorado Avalanche (-205), Total 6.5
This is a quick revenge spot for Detroit, who was routed at home by Colorado on Saturday, 5-0. These two old rivals hook up in Denver tonight, which is the first game back for the Avalanche following a 2-2 road trip.
The Red Wings have fared well in the first period on the road recently, posting a 6-2-6 mark in the last 14 games. Also, Detroit should be motivated to get on track after losing all three games on its recent homestand.
Colorado has not led through the first period in four consecutive home games and has scored one goal in the opening 20 minutes in the past three at Ball Arena.
Let's grab the Red Wings at a nice plus price in the first period against the Avalanche.
Red Wings 1st period (+150)
Super Bowl LX Content
We are going to continue to add to our Super Bowl LX coverage all week long and have it all wrapped in a nice bow for Friday’s newsletter. Below is content from last week and more added for today.
NFL Main Side/Total Plays: 39-45-3 (46.6%)
- Sides: 21-21-3 (1-3-1 postseason)
- Totals: 18-24 (3-2 postseason)
Main Props (including primetime games): 101-65 (60.8%) (9-5 postseason)
Total: 140-110-3 (55.9%) (13-9-1 postseason)
New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (-4.5, 45.5)
My thoughts mirror the plays from the last few playoff weeks. Simply, the New England offense has now struggled in all 3 playoff games against very good defenses in the Chargers, Broncos, and Texans.
The Pats offense, which ended the regular season 2nd in scoring (28.8 PPG), 3rd in yards (379.4 YPG) and top 10 in rushing and passing, has been a shell of itself in the postseason, only scoring 18 PPG (and that includes a pick 6 and a 10-yard TD drive), 278.3 yards per game and only 147.7 passing yards per game. Maye has two games under 200 passing yards and 5 TOs in 3 playoff games.
Enter the Seattle defense, which is just as good if not better than the 3 the Patriots have already played. Led the NFL in scoring defense (17.2), rush yards per play (3.74) and second in pass yards per play (5.5). They are not the Raiders, Dolphins, Jets, Bengals, Giants, Ravens, who the Patriots played this season. That’s not another knock on the schedule. It’s just facts. The playoff defenses have been a different challenge for Maye and the Pats.
On the offensive side, it’s time to stop doubting Sam Darnold. Yes, he had a bumpy career, but he has had back-to-back great seasons to revive his career, and has reached another gear in the two postseason games, being as efficient as possible vs. San Fran (12/17) and tossing up a 346 yard, 3 TD game vs. the Rams.
Can the Patriots win? Absolutely. They have proven all season they believe in themselves and their coach and can beat anyone. I just think Seattle is better.
And much like I’ve done with the Patriots in every postseason game, I am going to be on the under as well. The combination of both really good defenses and the Patriots struggling against good defenses leads me to a lower scoring game. I’ve taken the under in all 3 Patriots playoff games and went 2-1, and could’ve been 3-0 if C.J. Stroud would’ve stopped giving the Pats points. It was an under game.
Seattle -4.5, Under 46.5 (now 45.5, but gave out at 46.5 last week. Would play as long as 45 or higher)
Prop It Like It’s Hot
Nothing like Super Bowl props. There are over 2,000 of them out there at the various sites. We will have more as we get closer to the big game, but here are some to keep you busy over the weekend.
Will either Team Score in the First 6 minutes (No, -132 - FD)
One of my go-to props, which is getting harder and harder to find as we have won it a lot and so have others.
This used to be first 5.5 minutes and as you can see, it now 6 min and juiced up and for good reason.
Last year, the first score nearly 9 minutes into the game, the 8th time in the last 9 years that “no score in first 5.5 or 6.5 min” won.
2024: 8:45 in (Win)
2023: 2nd qtr (Win)
2022: 4:51 in (lost)
2021: 8:38 in (Win)
2020: 9:50 in (Win)
2019: 7:03 in (Win)
2018: 2nd qtr (Win)
2017: 7:05 in (Win)
2016: 2nd qtr (Win)No score, First 7 min is +114 if you want some plus money on it.
Drake Maye under 222.5 yards
Maye has had a wonderful season and deservingly is an MVP finalist. But what we have seen in the last two weeks, against some of the best defenses, is Maye struggling. He has six fumbles (3 lost) and 2 INTs in the two playoff games.
He did get 268 vs. the Chargers, but was held to 179 against Houston and 80 against Denver (and remember, the snow didn’t come until late 3rd qtr). And failed to get over 200 passing yards against the Bills a few weeks back in regular season, another good pass defense.
Dating back to Week 13 (Thanksgiving weekend), the Rams’ Matthew Stafford is the only QB to even reach 165 yards vs. the Seattle defense. He did it both times, but Kirk Cousins at 162 passing yards in Week 14 is next most.
Super Bowl MVP - JSN +600
You could always take the QB of the team you think is going to win and play it safe. Darnold (+130) and Maye (+230) are the favorites, but I don’t see this being a very high-scoring game and both QBs are turnover prone. Darnold’s 20 TOs led the NFL and Maye has fumbled a league-high 14 times.
With that in mind, and realizing JSN is really the only big-time Superstar in the game (Cooper Kupp used to be and others are too young to be), I am going to roll with a 6-1 price and hope he either catches a big TD or the numbers add up.
Both Teams to Record an INT (+200)
As noted above, both QBs are turnover prone and both defenses are outstanding.
Seattle was 5th in the NFL in getting INTs with 18.
Exact Score: Seattle 27, New England 17 (+9000) - Why not? I hit this once before. From 2019: Chiefs 31, Niners 20
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
No football this weekend, but we had action on golf and NBA, and also had a bunch of Betr plays out there.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter).
NFL
None
NBA/NHL
Missed Jazz pick on Friday and Kawhi missed by the hook.
GOLF
Didn’t hit any outrights or top-10s but a +166 top-20 in Ryan Gerard, our third straight week cashing a top-20
1-1 in tourney matchups (2-3 on season) as McCarthy beat Clark, but Homa didn’t make the cut to beat Koepka. We were right to fade Brooks, but had wrong matchup.
BETR Plays
Went 4-2 in plays for our new partners at BETR, going 2-1 in both PGA and NBA plays. If not in the newsletter, make sure to catch them on Twitter/X
Betting Tip of the Week
Filter Through the Noise
Everyone has their system or their way of attacking the lines. I am more of an aggregator of information, meaning I gather all the info I can in order to make the best decision. With that comes a lot of noise to filter through, which is the first step in trying to decide what to use and what not to use.
There is no perfect science, but historical betting stats that go too far back (different coaches/players) or small sample sizes are usually just noise. Settle on relevant stats or trends that help you and trusted sources that make you smarter. That will help you in the long run.
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action
The Waste Management PGA Tour preview
More on Super Bowl 60
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