Happy Masters Week Betting Family! And congratulations to The Michigan Wolverines for winning the CBB title. Now that the Tournament is over, we move to golf’s first major. We have a full card for my favorite event and because I am in a good mood, it’ll be completely free today. Normally Wednesday’s are a premium edition, but 100 pct free today, which includes the Masters card, NBA and NHL plays, and more.
While today, like our Mondays are FREE, make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss full CBB, NBA and golf cards and weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had Sportsline’s Eric Cohen on to break down the Final Four and Valero Open. Today, another SportsLine (and SportsGrid) host, Brady Kannon, joins me to talk all things Masters.
Speaking of SportsLine, some news to report. I will be joining the expert ranks over there as a talent, starting today! You’ll see me on the Early Edge tomorrow morning with some picks, as well as contributing to their site and Discord every day, with the link right here. Make sure to sign up and check that out for even more daily betting content, and a great Discord to be in.
Let me tell you about our new friends at Ungambled. “Ungambled is an app that teaches you how to profit from sportsbook bonuses and promotional offers — legally, systematically, no matter who wins the game.”
Click here to jump down to our Blitzanalytics.co prop of the night. We hit each of the last two nights with our Blitz Analytics plays and sitting at 13-7 overall.
Let’s get you some winning bets to cash.
TrendsCenter Trend of the Day
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We are going to start with an MLB one today because this one has never lost. That doesn’t mean it won’t lose, but the stats behind it are pretty good.
Betting on good teams that face Luis Severino when the over/under is less than 9 suggests confidence in a strong offense to overcome a quality pitcher in a low-scoring game. This system is a perfect 18-0 dating back to Severino’s Yankees days where he often lost to good teams. It is already 1-0 this season as the A’s lost to the Braves 5-1 in his last start.
Back teams with win pct over 58%
vs. Luis Severino
Over/under < 9
Trend is 18-0, yielding 12 units as the team is usually favored.
Yankees -150
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NBA on the Court
Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers (-1.5, 235.5)
We have a dual motivation game in Cleveland tonight (which is rare nowadays) as the Hawks look to maintain the five-seed in the East while the Cavs look to challenge the Knicks for the three-seed. This is the first of a home-and-home taking place over the next three days between these two as the regular season end draws near.
While the home team would love to move up, something that cloud realistically land them this exact matchup in Round 1, a bulky ankle for Donovan Mitchell has the potential to be managed down the stretch, understanding that the difference in the three and four seed is somewhat negligible in terms of opponent (they have a good chance at seeing the Hawks in Round 1 regardless of the result tonight).
Atlanta, however, is motivated at a high level with the East standings bunched from 5-9. We all think the NBA season is too long as it is, thus giving them every reason to avoid the game (or two) that would be put in front of them by way of the Play-In Tournament should they struggle over the final week.
The Hawks are the healthier team and peaking (18-3 over their past 21). Over the past month, they've turned opponents over on 16% of their possessions, a significant spike from their 13.5% rate prior and one that I believe given the pieces they have on the perimeter. Cleveland is naturally at risk of coughing up the ball with their star guard compromised and this season, unsurprisingly, they are ordinary in their highest turnover games (29-22) while holding a 21-7 mark when taking care of the ball.
Look for the road team to ride the hot hand of Nickeil Alexander-Walker (89 points in three April games on 60.8% shooting) and the versatility of Jalen Johnson (five straight double doubles with 5+ assists and 5+ rebounds in 15 of 16 games since March 1) to an outright win as the team with more on the line in a spot that the sportsbooks are essentially labeling as a coin flip.
Hawks ML (+100)
Jarrett Allen over 8.5 rebounds (+108 at DraftKings), or over 7.5 (-148 at FandDuel)
Data from our friends at BlitzAnalytics.co
He's been back two games, getting 9 and 13 rebounds in them, hitting the over both times
Minutes are back to normal from injury, with close to 30 in his last game vs. Memphis
Averaging 11.4 rebounds pre game in last 5 meetings vs. Hawks (2.9 above the 8.5)
Hawks allow 8.0 RPG to centers, 11.1 pct above league average
Pre-injury, he was at 9.8 per game over his last 10 games, hitting it 8 of 10 times.
o8.5 at plus money has slight edge with what he's been averaging and the plus money.
Full 2026 Masters Card
It’s here. The best event of the year. The Masters Tournament. If last year didn’t make you teary eyed when Rory completed the Grand Slam, well, I got nothing for ya. But for those that love this week, here is your full Masters card (well almost full as I might add some FRL plays later today on Twitter/X. And make sure to look for daily plays as well, which will be on Twitter and PrizePicks)
Top Winner Pick
Jon Rahm (+950) - note: He was +1100 in Monday’s early look
The public can debate the difference between LIV golfers and PGA Tour golfers all day, and there certainly are differences, but in the sports betting world, it's simple: You know everything about the PGA Tour golfers, while the LIV golfers fly under the radar except for four times a year. For example, you know Scottie Scheffler, the favorite to win the Masters at +350, has been struggling on the course and is expecting the birth of his second child any moment. You also know that Rory McIlroy, the second favorite at +700, is battling a back issue, with his best finish in the past month a T-46.
But did you know that Jon Rahm's LIV finishes this year have been: 2nd, 2nd, Win, 5th, 2nd? And that he leads the LIV Tour in Greens in Regulation and birdies? Probably not. Of course, the competition and the format are all different, but Rahm is having his best LIV year yet. But he's still +1100 to win it, behind two guys that aren't in top form (Scottie, Rory) and behind fellow LIV player Bryson DeChambeau, who he is ahead of at LIV.
All Rahm has done at the Masters is win it in 2023, finish T-5 in 2021, T-7 in 2020, T-9 in 2019, and 4th in 2018. After not playing well in his title defense in 2024, he returned last year with a T-14. Rahm is arguably playing better than everyone shorter than him on the odds board and has had tremendous success at Augusta National.
Patrick Reed to win (+4500); top-20 finish (+125)
Back in 2018, I made one of my first big cashes in the golf world, hitting Patrick Reed pre-event for 40-1. I take him here in some capacity every year and have been handsomely rewarded as he has five top-10s, including 3rd last year, 4th in 2023, 8th in 2021, and 10th in 2020. He was also T-12 in 2024. Simply put, the guy contends here every year.
You haven't seen much of him since he went to LIV, but he left LIV this past offseason and is working his way back to the PGA Tour through the DP World Tour, where he already has two wins in his first three events, with a runner-up finish in between. He leads the DP Tour in shots gained total, is second in approach, and fifth in hitting greens. That's a formula for winning the Masters if he brings that game to Augusta, which he tends to do.
Longshot
Si Woo Kim to win (+6000)
Going back 15 years, the longest odds to win the Masters were 60-1 by Hideki Matsuyama in 2021. That price is where we are going to land for our longshot, as we don't expect a 100-1 shot like Charl Schwartzel in 2011 to win this anytime soon. Si Woo Kim has been one of the pleasant and consistent surprises on Tour this season. With five top-15 finishes, including a runner-up (Farmers Insurance) and a third-place finish (Phoenix), Kim is remarkably improved from the golfer who missed 8 cuts last season.
After not qualifying for Augusta last year, Kim has earned his way back and has the game to earn a green jacket. He's 2nd on Tour in Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green, 5th on Approach, and 3rd in Driving Accuracy. All of which will play at Augusta National. His problem has been the flatstick, where he is 139th. However, a reason for optimism is that he gained shots putting at The Players Championship last month. The last time he did that? Farmers Insurance, where he finished runner-up.
Finishing Position Bets
Xander Schauffele top-10 finish (+140)
Eight appearances, five top-10s. Would be hard to find someone else with that type of ratio, but he does not have that win.
The last three years have been as consistent as it gets with T-8, 8, T-10. The other two top-10 finishes were runner-up in 2019 and 3rd place in 2021.
After a slow start to the season, his form has picked up with three top-10s in his last four events, including a third-place finish at The Players.
His metrics are all positive, 11th shots gained total, 15th on approach, 32nd off tee, and 38th putting.
This is one of those bets that you are hoping you kick yourself for not going for the 19-1 outright. Maybe we get there by Thursday or we play him live.
Cam Young top-10 finish (+182)
We haven't seen him since he won The Players in come from behind finish, but that also means the last team we saw him, he was awesome.
Hit or miss at The Masters with A T-7 and T-9 and two missed cuts. So if we get the good version, we have a contender.
And the good version is what we've seen this season with T-7, T-3, Win being his last three results, all at massive events.
3rd off the tee, 8th overall, 9th tee-to-green, 26th on approach. He can absolutely win on Sunday.
Ludwig Aberg top-20 finish (-148)
Ludwig Aberg is two-for-two with good Masters appearances, finishing runner-up and seventh the two times he has played.
He also has two career wins, with one being a Signature Event, taking home the Genesis last season.
However, he’s also blown multiple Sunday leads this season, most notably at The Players Championship last month, where he held a four-shot lead. He also held the lead last Sunday at the Valero Open before getting a bogey on three out of seven holes to finish fifth, his same finish from The Players.
On the metrics front, Aberg is seventh in shots gained tee-to-green, 36th on approach, 13th around the green, 23rd off-the-tee, and 10th overall.
Robert MacIntyre top-20 finish (+108)
Always been a popular play at this event based on his game and the fact that he's a lefty, which plays well at Augusta National, which we've seen with Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, and Mike Weir.
Finished T-12 in his debut in 2012, but hasn't done much here since.
9th OT, 13th total, 4th putting
Adam Scott top-20 finish (+148)
The 2013 Masters Champion is making his 25th appearance at Augusta National.
In addition to his win, Scott has four other top-10 finishes, including a runner-up in 2011, an eighth-place finish in 2010, and a ninth-place finish in 2017.
Scott finished fourth at the Genesis in February and 11th at the Arnold Palmer last month, two Signature Events.
In his career, Scott has 20 career top-10s in majors, with at least a top-4 in all four majors
72-Hole Tournament Head-to-Head Matchups
Akshay Bhatia (+105) over Russell Henley (DraftKings)
We already took MacIntyre as a top-20 finish, liking lefties at Augusta. Bhatia is another lefty who has only played here twice (T-42, T-35), but he also has never entered Augusta National playing as well as he is now.
Bhatia has finished no worse than T-16 over his last five Tour events, winning the Arnold Palmer in a playoff and finishing tied for 13th last month at The Players.
He's 8th Shots Gained on Approach, 6th total, and 10th putting. If he doesn't spray off the tee, he could finish top-10
Henley is good and finished 4th at the Masters in 2023, but also went T-38 and MC the last two years. His season has been hit or miss this year, with two missed cuts and two top 10s.
The plus money on the lefty is what got me to bet this.
Patrick Reed (+125) over Hideki Matsuyama (DraftKings)
Already wrote why I like Reed to win this thing, so of course, I am going to take him plus money in a 72-hole head-to-head.
Matsuyama has also won the Masters and can win again, but Reed is playing better right now and is getting +125 on my money.
Corey Conners (-120) over Sam Burns (FanDuel)
Conners is a guy you always want on your card when good approaches are needed, as he is one of the best in the world. But he has consistently struggled with the putter, which drops him out of outright contention.
Four top-10s in the last six years is among the best in the field, with an 8th-place finish last year.
Burns has never played well at Augusta, with a T-29 his best finish of four appearances
Jon Rahm (+125) over Scottie Scheffler (FanDuel)
This play is not for the weak, as you are betting against the No. 1 player in the world, who has won this event two of the last three years.
But Rahm has a green jacket as well and is having his best year on the LIV Tour with five top-5 finishes in five events. He's my pick to win it at +1100, so I am doubling down here.
One and Done Pool
You know that I only recommend tools I actually use, and PoolGenius is what I’ll be using this year when I build out my March Madness brackets and play in a few NCAA Survivor pools.
They’re offering discounts for the Betting with Bearman family if you want to check it out.
For me this week, I am using Jon Rahm at The Masters. My analysis of him is above.
Thoughts and Picks on main NBA, CBB and NHL
Masters Friday afternoon picks
Brady Kannon on Betting with Bearman podcast
Nugget-heavy research
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