Happy Monday Betting Family, and a special welcome to all those who have signed up over the last couple of weeks. We’ve had a bunch of new members as we enter Year 2, so welcome aboard!
If you haven’t heard, the Knicks are hosting an NBA Finals game at MSG for the first time since 1999. There will be a couple of people there spending a couple of dollars. Anyhow, we have you covered with all things NBA Finals here today. We also have 6 of the 8 spots wrapped up for Omaha with the other two being decided today. Game 4 of the crazy Stanley Cup Final is tomorrow and later in the week, we will have a preview of the final PGA event before next week’s U.S. Open on Long Island. We also will be adding some daily World Cup content when the event starts on Thursday.
While today, like all Monday’s are FREE, make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss full NBA, college baseball, and golf cards and weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had sports betting analyst Doug Kezirian on. This week, the Ringer’s Raheem Palmer comes back to talk NBA Finals Game 4 and some NFL futures.
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NBA Finals Game 3 - Can the Spurs Bounce Back?
Game 3: San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks (-2.5, 215.5)
It’s the Knicks world and we are just living in it. New York has put together one of the best runs in postseason history, winning 13 consecutive games, including the first two on the road in San Antonio.
As I stated after Game 1, my opinion has shifted and I had seen enough to recognize that this version of the Knicks, even if only for 13 games, is the best team in basketball and will win the NBA title. They figured it out at the right time and now only need to win two of the next five games, with three of them scheduled for the Garden.
While I am not sure the Knicks will lose again anytime soon, the Spurs are not going to go down without a fight. Don’t forget, they won two of four games at OKC, including Game 7. It might not match the circus that will be MSG tonight, but that could also work in their favor. We lean Knicks at home, because there is no reason to not think so, but we are going to go to the prop market for our plays.
We start by going back to a trend we have been playing for the last two weeks. Yes, the Knicks are favored and are playing better ball right now, but you can isolate certain aspects of the game where they are not better and here is one of them.
Spurs first quarter ML (-110)
No one can exactly measure what the home crowd will mean, but it is likely an overall advantage for the Knicks, but not necessarily early. If there are any jitters, it’ll be early and it’s vs. one of the top first quarter teams in the game.
Spurs are the 2nd highest scoring first qtr team at 31.4, two full points better than Knicks. While the Knicks have dominated the 2nd quarter (should watch that line as well), it’s been San Antonio early. They led almost wire-to-wire in the first quarter in Game 2 after rallying from an early deficit in Game 1.
Spurs are 10-2-2 winning the first period since dropping game 1 to the Timberwolves in the conference semis, including going into Oklahoma City in Game 7 and winning by 7 and winning the quarter vs. the Knicks in both games of the Finals.
Wemby plays 11 minutes on average in the first qtr before resting, which gives Spurs the advantage on most nights.
And because this will be on the road at MSG for the Spurs, who everyone already thinks are done, we are getting a great price at -110. Note: This was -165 in Game 2 at home. Same teams.
Betting with Bearman Parlay Game
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Don’t go away! We have more NBA Knicks-Cavs playoff content, college baseball Road to Omaha early thoughts, nuggets, and much more, including a weekend recap.
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More NBA Finals Playoff Content
You know I love trends in Betting with Bearman, especially ones that carry over from series to series and are opponent agnostic and more about how a team is playing with their rotations and matchups. While the books have caught up a little and moved Dylan Harper up a board, he is still exceeding it every night, much like KAT did with his assists back in the first two rounds.
Dylan Harper over 5.5 rebounds (+102)
Books moved it from 4.5 to 5.5, but we are also getting plus money on it.
Over his last 12 games, he has gone over 5.5 rebounds 8 times (75%) and over 4.5 10 times. He got exactly 5 boards twice, which would be the difference in the line move, but still hitting over 5.5 boards 75% of the time, with the line an implied value of 49.5%. Advantage us.
Note: The two in which he didn’t reach 5 boards were a game he left early with an injury and then the next game, where he played only 17 minutes with the injury.
He’s averaging 6.3 rebounds over those 11 games and if you only count the 10 games, it’s 7.1.
He’s gotten 28+ minutes in both Finals games and 25+ minutes in four of the last five postseason games overall off the bench with De’Aaron Fox struggling with his ankle injury and the rebounds have gone up.
Harper averaged 5.7 rebounds per game in the 7-game series vs. the Thunder, and grabbed 8 in game one vs. the Knicks, and 6 more in Game 2.
Bonus Play: Keldon Johnson under 0.5 assists
This play isn't for the faint of heart. It could fall apart quick. It could fall part in painful fashion late. Anytime you take an under on a low number (Mitchell Robinson under 3.5 points showed value in Game 1 and is on my radar again tonight), heartbreak is within the range of outcomes, but getting this market at an even price tag is valuable in my eyes.
The primary point here is that, with how the series has been officiated so far, driving the basketball is a battle. Hand checking has been allowed as if we took a trip back to the 1990's and both teams have the type of physical defenders that can take full advantage of that. If the drives for the backcourt guys aren't really going anywhere (the primary guards in this series have seen their points per drive tank from 0.69 through the first three rounds to 0.39 in these Finals), I tend to think that we see a reduction in attempts.
Or just a forcing of it for the star players. Either way, I'm OK with it. Keldon Johnson isn't a creative passer and if he's not encouraged to get his feet in the paint, the cheap drive-and-kick assist potential isn't a major concern.
Johnson averaged one shot nearly every two minutes of playing time in the West Finals and it's not his play-making that gets him on the floor. There is a low minutes floor to consider (eight in Game 1) and that further lowers the assist projection, understanding that the Spurs aren't shy about looking a different direction if it's working. In his 24 minutes during these Finals, he has two assists and I'd argue that he's overachieved.
In Games 1-2, one of every 4.75 Johnson passes has resulted in a potential assist. That's a high rate (reference: Nikola Jokic was at 4.15 this regular season and Jalen Brunson 5.44) and not one that I think is close to sustainable. Opportunities are going to be low as it is for a secondary player like this in what profiles as a near must-win situation and if the minutes are at risk of drying up, a zero potential assist game is within the range of outcomes.
Any bet like this is a sweat. With Wemby being the same size as the basket, even an off-target lob could cost us this bet in a blink of an eye. But I'm standing in the way of it tonight. I don't see Johnson being asked to dribble in a significant way and this Knicks defense has been closing out well when San Antonio gets the ball swinging, so I'm not confident that he records a dime simply by advancing the ball on the perimeter.
NHL Stanley Cup Final Game 4
Game 4: Carolina Hurricanes (-115) at Vegas Golden Knights (-105), per Kevin Rogers
To say the Stanley Cup Final has been entertaining is a massive understatement. Vegas squandered a 4-0 third period lead in Game 3, but managed to pull out a double-overtime victory to grab a 2-1 series advantage.
Carolina has moved to a -115 favorite for Game 4, looking to even this series up at 2-2. The Hurricanes scored three goals in less than a minute in Game 3 to pull within 4-3 before tying the game late. Brandon Bussi replaced Frederik Andersen before the third and was outstanding, as we'll see if he gets the call in net for Game 4.
Both teams have had golden opportunities in this series, as Carolina blew a two-goal lead in the Game 1 loss, while Vegas couldn't hold a 2-0 lead in Game 2. It's unlikely Mitch Marner will have another performance like he did in Game 3, posting a hat trick after not scoring a goal in the previous six games.
Let's back Carolina (-115) at the short price on the road to tie this series at 2-2.
Road to Omaha Almost Set
Six of the eight spots in Omaha are set with the other two decided today one way or another.
Here are the updated odds to win the College World Series. We will have a complete preview on Wednesday once the field is set and matchups odds are out.
Georgia +275
North Carolina +275
Texas +300
West Virginia +750
Ole Miss +800
Alabama +1400 (not clinched yet)
Oklahoma +1700 (not clinched yet)
Troy +3500
Kansas +15000 (down 1-0 in series and down 8-1 in Game 2)
St. John’s +100000 (down 1-0 in series and down 7-2 in Game 2)
MLB Corner from Jacob Byck
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
Jackson Holliday over 1.5 Total Bases (+215)
Holliday has been red hot since returning from the IL — going 7-for-27 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, and 6 runs scored across 10 games. That's exactly the kind of contact quality that can cash this prop in a single swing.
Both of his 2026 home runs have come against right-handed pitching, and Emerson Hancock is a righty. Holliday bats left — the platoon edge is in his favor.
Hancock has been one of the best starters in the AL this season — 2.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and allowed 2 or fewer runs in 9 of 12 starts. This is a tough
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
Now that I am in the SportsLine Discord, I have wall-to-wall picks, even after the newsletter posts. I plan on starting a Discord of my own in the fall.
We had a great weekend with NBA and college baseball and lost a little in golf.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and how we did overall on the weekend
NBA
We had one of our best NBA nights of the year in Game 2, going 4-0 in the newsletter, hitting Knicks +6.5, Spurs 1st qtr ML, Hart under PRA, Harper over rebounds.
GOLF
We had Si Woo Kim (again) hit his top 10 for +160
We hit our lone H2H play with Cantlay (+106) over Henley
Didn’t hit our others for a small loss this week.
College Baseball
In our Friday newsletter, we went 1-1, hitting West Virginia run line at -2.5 and losing the USC/UNC under. Ironically, that was the only over game they played. Also hit the regional series parlay of WVU/Troy
For the weekend, we went 4-4, with our Kansas series win on life support
Betting Tip of the Week
Shop Shop Shop
If you take anything out of any betting advice, let it be this one … Shop, shop, and shop some more. If you’re only using one book, they have you, and you already lost.
To be a successful bettor in the long term, you need to have the best price. Most legal states have numerous books for you to choose from, and you need to gain every advantage you can. Spend the extra time to shop your price across all books and promos and settle on the best one … always.
Picks and thoughts on NBA Finals Game 4, and Stanley Cup Final Game 5
Full PGA card for Canadian Open
College World Series preview and Game 1 picks.
World Cup preview and opening picks
Nuggets and more.
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