Marlins Swimming Upstream; NFL is Back

Hello August and hello to everyone who signed up for the Betting with Bearman over the weekend! I had a nice Sunday playing golf with some former colleagues and watching my 100-1 shot (NicoEchavarria) play worse golf than me.

On the bright side, the Marlins swept the Yankees and their were multiple Yankees fans with me, so I got to use my putter as a true broom stick out there.

Anyhow, as we prepare for the NFL madness coming our way as early as this weekend, we have tons of MLB games during the 8-week sprint to October, plenty of WNBA and the beginning of the FedExCup playoffs in golf for those that follow along.

A reminder that Betting with Bearman is a lot more than just the newsletter below. The podcast can be found right here. We will have a new on on Tuesday and a bunch of NFL Division previews coming later in the week, all on the Bleav Podcast Network. And make sure to follow us on Twitter/X and YouTube as we give our weekend analysis on non-newsletter days. This past weekend, we went 2-1-1 in golf picks, so make sure to follow along.

On to the betting content!

One thing I did not expect during the first Monday in August is that the Florida Marlins (yes we still call them that here) are the hottest team in baseball and now at .500 for the first time since April 16 after a sweep of the New York Yankees.

In honor of that sweep and resurrection of the Marlins, we are giving multiple baseball plays below, including, yes you guessed it, one on the Marlins game tonight.

A trio of MLB bets to make on this great Monday start to the week.

Cincinnati Reds (+118, Nick Lodolo) at Chicago Cubs (-143 Michael Soroka)

Mike Soroka was brought to the Windy City from Washington at the trade deadline with the hope that he could add quality innings to their rotation. Matthew Boyd has been amazing this season, but it’s been a bumpy ride lately for Shota Imanaga and Colin Rea, putting this team in a spot at the deadline where they had to make a decision.

Soroka is striking out more than a batter per inning this season and has a 3.33 xERA, something that is much more appealing than the 4.87 actual ERA you see in the traditional box score.

On this his 28th birthday, Soroka not only comes in with strong form, but strong form that is completely justified. He’s not allowed more than two earned runs in five of his past six starts (a run that, by the way, includes tonight’s opponent less than two weeks ago) and the one blow-up outing (nine hits and seven runs allowed to the Red Sox on July 4) can be explained away with relative ease.

During Soroka’s now near six-week run of dominance, Boston is in a class of their own when it comes to producing against the fastball, a pitch that Sorkoa now throws over 45% of the time (career rate: 29.4%). Baseball is a game of matchups and, looking back, the righty struggling on the holiday weekend tracks.

The Reds are nothing more than ordinary against the heater, something that Soroka reinforced in his penultimate start with the Nats. I’m looking for more of the same tonight – gimme the Reds to go scoreless through the first three innings (.566 opponent OPS in his first trip through the order) and the Cubbies moneyline (-143).

Houston Astros (+107, Jason Alexander) at Miami Marlins (-130, Sandy Alcantara)

The over/under currently sits at 8.5, but there has been enough movement to think that there's at least a chance we see it drop to a flat eight runs prior to first pitch, so this is a line I'm watching.

If you think Miami's bats have been better post-Break, it's because they have. Sort of. The run total is up, but it's in a more unique fashion. In 2025, teams that go on offensive runs tend to run hot on variance -- they see their launch angle explode and it runs into a stretch of solid contact. Elevated, quality contact typically means runs. Simple.

But since the Break, the Fish have actually seen their average launch angle dip by 7%. Normally, that'd have me considering under for them, but with their barrel rate up 10% over that same stretch, it's possible we've seen a tweak in approach. They are swinging for contact, not for bombs.

That may SOUND like a distinction without a difference, but it actually comes with an increase in stability. Barrell rate is much more tied to run scoring than launch angle, so there might be something to the new look Marlins.

We don't know much about Jason Alexander, the starting pitcher facing Miami tonight. Yes, he shares a name with the actor from Seinfeld who plays George, but that's about it. The 32-year old has under 100 pro innings under his belt and what we have seen has been ... unspectacular (5.92 ERA). More concerning than the ERA struggles is the WHIP (1.67) and the fact that he allows nearly two hits for every strikeout. The Marlins might not all of a sudden be an elite offense, but they are in the best form we've seen all season and Alexander doesn't present the type of profile that concerns me about immediate regression.

If Miami doesn't cash this over ticket by themselves, fear not. Sandy Alcantara is on the bump and the one-time staff ace and NL Cy Young winner, despite a few good recent starts, remains in a lost place.

The most concerning metric on the board for him is the sudden downtick in deception. His chase rate had increased in consecutive seasons prior entering 2025, but this year, it has plummeted. After a three year stretch where one of every three swings was a miss, it's down to 27.7% this year, The Astros aren't an offensive juggernaut, but they did bring back Carlos Correa at the deadline and have been an above average contact team all season (even better post break).

All signs point to a warm day in Miami where the ball should have no problem traveling. I'm not here to tell you which team gets to six runs, but I think at least one of them does and that puts us in position to clear the needed total of 8.5. That said, I'm still holding out some hope that the current juice situation drops this number to eight runs, just for a little more leeway.

Tampa Bay Rays (+104, Adrian Houser) at Los Angeles Angels (-126, Yusei Kikuchi)

Adrian Houser makes his debut for the Rays, after being acquired from the White Sox, and he comes in with strong efficiency metrics. He’s averaging 14.5 pitches per inning this season and was even better in July (13.6), not bad for a player on his fourth roster in three years.

The 32-year-old has the benefit of extended rest (last start: July 25) and he draws a Halo’s offense that went quiet over the weekend against the White Sox after a strong run of production.

Do they bounce back? Or are the recent results predictive of what to expect moving forward?

There is some art and some science to that, but we are only concerned about this singular spot. Even if they bounce back, it’s hard to see them lighting up a pitcher with a 2.10 ERA (3.31 FIP) in his 11 starts.

Should they struggle to score, this bet might not have much sweat equity attached to it as Yusei Kikuchi is trending in the wrong direction.

June: 32 innings, eight runs allowed, 4.6 K/BB
July: 31.1 innings, 17 earned runs, 3.3 K/BB

I’m not suggesting that the Rays are set for an offensive explosion, I’m not sure they are built in a way that will ever cause me to say that, but they are one of the five most aggressive teams at the dish over the past month and with Kikuchi being far more hittable now than he was earlier, I think it’s fair to say that he doesn’t keep a clean sheet for very long.

Give me the Rays to win the race to three runs (+100), understanding that we get the pitcher in better form, are fading a recently struggling offense, and get the added benefit of playing on the road. It’s a fun prop that can be found under “Game Props” under the game.

Publisher’s note for those who have been following Betting with Bearman content: Angels pitcher Jose Soriano, a consistent Betting with Bearman play over the last few weeks, is schedule to start Tuesday night vs the Rays. We won’t have a Tuesday newsletter and didn’t want to miss it.

Soriano ground balled the Rays to death back in April and while plenty of things have changed since then, his path to cashing tickets hasn’t. The Rays are a bottom-5 launch angle team this season and are one of two offenses sub 10-degrees over the past month. It took Soriano just 93 pitches to face 31 batters during that glorious April 10th and I’m already excited about his potential to be ultra efficient tomorrow night. There is not line out yet, but make sure to follow us on Twitter/X for more info, but just know we will be on the Angels on Tuesday night.

Betting on preseason games is a dangerous line to walk and buying trends about these exhibitions is even murkier waters. That said, we all know people who are going to be betting these games and you might be guilty of it as well, so why not at least have a trend to consider?

Defending Super Bowl champions are 1-3 in preseason openers since the pandemic, allowing at least 19 points in each of those games. The Bengals are currently a 1.5-point favorite in Philadelphia for Thursday night with an implied total sitting at 18.5 points.

How did we do? Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and everything else we know about the sports betting world over the last few days.

How did the weekend go in the world of Sports Betting?

For the NFL, Get in Early

We will come back to this before Labor Day, but since we have a full NFL preseason slate this week, we wanted to give this top out now as well.

The NFL has the tightest lines of any sport or league, meaning the margin of difference between the lines and power rankings is slim.

The best time to get in on a good number is when they first post on Sunday night. The market is fresh, and it hasn’t been bought into yet. Books spend Sunday evening and even Monday morning adjusting opening numbers to the big bets and sharp action coming in, so get in before they move!

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