Mavericks Begin New Era; Jets-Patriots Kickoff Week 11's NFL Action

Happy Wednesday betting friend. We will do our best to follow up Monday’s perfect 4-0 newsletter with some more wins tonight and tomorrow. Monday’s picks were all free, which hopefully means you will want to upgrade for today, Thursday and Friday’s picks!

While we give our NBA play out for free tonight, our juicy TNF player prop, SGP and NHL plays are all worth an upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.

We also like to get ahead on Betting with Bearman, so we have our Thursday Night Football card, featuring a player prop pick off the AFC East matchup between the Jets and Patriots, as well as our Same Game Parlay, props and plays for the book promos that are offered.

We also take a look at our Futures portfolio and hit on an NBA and NHL game.

Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we will have the NFL, NBA, and CFB covered from head to toe with betting analyst Doug Kezirian, former host of ESPN’s ESPN Bet.

Let’s get to it!

We enter the fourth week of the NBA season, hoping to pick up a couple of early trends here and there with each team playing 10-12 games. One possible trend points us to the Suns/Mavs game tonight in the post Nico Harrison era.

It's still awfully early in the season, but some of these undermanned teams can show sticky trends quickly as they have a narrow range of game states in which they are comfortable. Here's a look at the season long pace rank for the teams Phoenix has played this season and the result:

It's not perfect, but doesn't it look like they largely beat teams that want to slow tempo and struggle against teams that are in the league average range or better in pace?

The Suns are 6-5, but they aren't an above average basketball team and I think we could even get some sticker shock during the early part of today with this game being a coin toss against the 3-8 Mavericks (the betting industry can't even agree as to who to favor by a point).

I think this is as good a spot to buy regression as we get tonight.

The Suns are the seventh best 3P% team in the NBA this season, but is that "real"?

I struggle to see it.

Their roster is low on creators, and yet, they rank top-10 in both volume and percentage from straight on 3's, shots that take some creativity to open up. Dallas could get reinforcements on the interior tonight (both Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively are questionable after missing two weeks each) and even if they don't, this team is built with a strong foundation in the paint and that allows them to prioritize aggressive perimeter closeouts.

The Mavs allow a league-low 35.1% of opponent shots to come from 3 (NBA average: 41.7%), a percentage that has a shot to improve if this team is close to full strength.

In a battle of two teams that I don't think are that good, the ability for one to make the other uncomfortable is good enough for me. We get an additional out here with Cooper Flagg starting to show signs of growth. Over his past five games, his rebound and assist rates are up and his TS% sits at 54.2%, up from 49.3% during his first six games.

The 3-point rate and minor Flagg development may seem like fringe things, but if we view these two teams as even, the fact that both of those lean in the favor of the home team makes a difference.

Dallas +1.5 (-118) at DraftKings

Stick around for our Thursday Night Football play and SGP below