MLB Heads to the All-Star Break; Who Do We Like for the HR Derby?

Welcome to the second week of July! Hopefully you had some nice winning bets over the weekend and continue into this week. This historically is the slowest sports week of the year with none of the 4 major men’s sports having regular season action.

We do have the WNBA in action and all star festivities in Atlanta for MLB fans. There’s a UFC PPV card this week and golf hosts it’s final major of the season, so we are FAR from without things to talk about.

Lots to still bet on in July! Happy Betting.

Through the 47 different formats of this event, one thing has stayed constant: It’s fun event that you can have fun betting on. So let’s jump in.

Over the past 3 Derby's, the winner has had an in-season Launch Angle about a standard deviation below the field mean with an average Barrel%

By sticking to that patter, it would eliminate favorite Cal Raleigh (+275) and Byron Buxton (+900).

It favors Oneil Cruz (+350), James Wood (+450), and Matt Olson (+800), who are 2-3-4 in odds. Our pick will be Nationals slugger Wood (+450). Using the DraftKings 50% boost, you can get him at +675.

HR Derby Betting Data, from our friends at BetMGM

Line movement (Open to Current)

Cal Raleigh +360 to +275
James Wood +550 to +400
Brent Rooker +1200 to +850
Byron Buxton +850 to +900

Highest Ticket%

James Wood 18.0%
Cal Raleigh 17.0%
Oneil Cruz 14.2%

Highest Handle%

Cal Raleigh 30.3%
James Wood 19.2%
Oneil Cruz 14.5%

Biggest Liability

Cal Raleigh (SEA)
James Wood (WAS)
Oneil Cruz (PIT)

Come back on Wednesday as we preview the 2nd half of the season with “Futures to Bet Now”

Minnesota Lynx (-10.5, 161) at Chicago Sky

This season, double-digit home underdogs are 8-4 ATS and in all eight of those covers, the 'dog went over their implied total. In the eight of those 12 games NOT including Connecticut, the underdog has scored an average of 82.4 points with an average implied total of 74.3 PPG.

This is the third meeting in a week-and-a-half for these two and in the first two, we got a cumulative score of 162-161 in the favor of Chicago. In those games, the Sky have held a 90-65 rebound edge, meaning Napheesa Collier would need to push for 25% of Minnesota's boards to reach her over/under.

All of those leans are interesting by themselves and if you believe in their correlation, the Sky to cover, go over their team total, and Collier to come in under her rebound total pays +365 on DraftKings as a SGP.

It’s Open Championship golf week and this year it is in Northern Ireland, where Shane Lowry took the title of Champion Golfer of the Year in 2019. We have opening thoughts below and will have complete breakdown later in the week, but here are the opening odds of the last 10 Open Champions.

2024 Xander Schauffele 12-1
2023 Brian Harman 125-1
2022 Cam Smith 20-1
2021 Collin Morikawa 30-1
2019 Shane Lowry 80-1 (at Royal Portrush)
2018 Eduardo Molinari 25-1
2017 Jordan Spieth 12-1
2016 Henrick Stenson 25-1
2015 Zach Johnson 80-1
2014 Rory McIlroy 12-1

How did the weekend go in the world of Sports Betting?

It’s a quiet week in terms of sports as MLB hits the All-Star Break. But we do have the HR Derby and All-Star Game, as well as the start of the final golf major of the year, over in Northern Ireland. UFC 318 takes center stage in New Orleans Saturday night.

Stick to Your Strengths, You Don’t Have To Bet the Board

This is perfect for this week. A common misconception is you should bet every game, but you shouldn’t. Stick to your strengths. Know a particular team well? See edges in totals or first-half bets? Bet what you know and what you know well and not everything and anything. You don’t have to be the exhibition known as the MLB All-Star game just because it’s on TV. You don’t have to be the NBA Summer League, but if you have an edge, fire away. Just don’t have to.

Instead of a bad beat this week, we are going to give you some news. Good Luck if you try it!

Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action