Hope everyone enjoyed the Open Championship this past weekend! Even thought the champion was known before we all woke up on Sunday, there was plenty of betting action to be had, including a whole bunch of placement bets that we gave out last week.
Hopefully you listened to the Betting with Bearman podcast or read this newsletter on Wednesday and tailed the picks as we had a couple of winners, including suggesting to hop on Scottie as early as Thursday night after seeing him play the first 18 holes.
We have a full slate of MLB games this week and the WNBA comes out of it’s All-Star Break on Tuesday. We have some trends below to get you ready. We will be back Wednesday with more NFL Futures to jump, which will also be featured in the weekly podcast.
Happy Monday!
MLB Corner
Detroit Tigers (+108, Jack Flaherty) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-132, Paul Skenes)
If you want to talk about a team getting punched in the mouth, how about the Pirates dropping all three games over the weekend, at home, against a White Sox team that set the modern era record for losses in a season last year.
By a combined score of 27-7.
The ChiSox scored 25 runs through their first 12 games post-Break in 2024 and didn’t record their third win of the second half of the season until the second half of August … they did both this past weekend in Pittsburgh.
The Buccos bullpen racked up 243 pitches over those three L’s, making them a fatigue threat, even after having nearly a week off and that means we could/should get the full Paul Skenes experience tonight (100+ pitches in his first three starts coming out of the Break in 2024).
That’s interesting, but not directly my angle. If we are penciling in full usage for Skenes that means very little room for error on the other side and that's where my money currently sits.
Detroit saw Tarik Skubal do Tarik Skubal things on Sunday Night Baseball and it’s safe to say their ‘pen is in much better position entering this game than that of the home team. Jack Flaherty is slated to take the bump tonight and while the Pirates aren’t exactly scoring runs, I’m not sure the righty is poised for an extended night.
Despite the recent struggles, Pittsburgh is a top-10 team (lowest) in chase rate and a top-10 team (highest) in zone swing percentage over the past month. Over an extended period of time, you’d expect plate discipline like that to pay dividends and tonight could be the night.
Through his 19 starts (100.2 innings) this season, Flaherty’s whiff rate is below his career norm while both his barrel percentage and average launch angle are trending towards the highest marks of his career. We are looking at a low projected humidity day in Pittsburgh, a nice boost for the bats as there’s less air density to navigate and could well result in those hard hit fly balls that Flaherty surrenders doing serious damage.
Even if he doesn’t get shelled, the odds of him going deep in this one aren’t great. He averages north of 17 pitches per inning both for this season and his career, a major obstacle when it comes to his “outs recorded” props. Add that to the 'limited room for error' narrative that I detailed earlier with the Skenes effect and who is to say that the Tigers, grinding for every win as they chase the top seed in the American League, don't call to their rested bullpen at the first sign of trouble?
Sure, we are still in the middle third of July, but losing games to the reeling Pirates is a good way to make a deep run in the postseason more difficult. Flaherty might mow down this struggling offense and cost us this bet, but that’s going to be the common analysis and inflate this number a bit.
Detroit's starter has been knocked around when facing a lineup for a third time within a game this season (.897 OPS) and he’d need to be nearly perfect to clear this prop number if we are to assume that the Tigers try to avoid using him for a third time through.
Not all bets are comfortable and this is an example of just that. We are not directly betting on the Pirates, but this is more of a pro-Pittsburgh angle than a negative one – don’t shoot the messenger. Just following the data and this profiles as a prop worthy of consideration, even if it’s not a fun click to make. Mark me down for Jack Flaherty under 17.5 outs recorded (-125) tonight at PNC Park.
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Trend to Watch
We absolutely love our trends in Betting with Bearman. With the WNBA coming out of the All-Star Break, we wanted to give you and update on how the first half went, so you can be in the best possible shape to bet the 2nd half of the season.
WNBA First Half Betting Trends
Favorites have covered 44.5% of games and underdogs 55.5%
Home teams have covered 50.7%, with road 49.3%
Totals are split, with overs and unders at 50% each
Favorites have gone over their team total 56.9% of the time, while the underdogs have gone over their team total only 43.3% of the time
In games with 7+ point spreads, the underdog has cashed 58.1% and the under has hit 54.1% of the time
in games with totals of 165+, underdogs have covered 54.1% and the under has hit 53.1% of the time.
Recapping the Weekend
How did we do? Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and everything else we know about the sports betting world over the last few days.
We had a great Open Championship week, hitting two top 10s, two top 20s, Scheffler live on Thursday afternoon (given out on podcast and Twitter) and hit three additional live bets given out on Saturday’s podcast. Make sure to download the podcast so you don’t miss any plays!
We lost our Orioles/Rays under play on Friday. However, both 2nd half futures given out (Cubs best record in July and Blue Jays to make ALCS) are off to good starts as the Cubs took 2 of 3 from the Red Sox and the Blue Jays swept the Giants to move into the 2 spot in the AL. If they hold that, they would only need to win one series to win our bet. The +310 is down to +260 so we already go value.
We did not hit our Dustin Poirier play, but it did go over the posted total.
How did the weekend go in the world of Sports Betting?
Scottie Scheffler (+400), the favorite, ran away with the Open Championship, winning by 4 shots.
Ryan Gerard (+2000), one of the co-favorites, won the Barracuda Championship, a PGA Tour event in Truckee, California for those that did not qualify for the Open.
Denny Hamlin (+450), one of the co-favorites, won the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 in Dover.
While favorite Max Holloway (-130) held on to his BMF title with the win over Dustin Poirier, the UFC 318 card was full of upsets as Paulo Costas (+180), Daniel Rodriguez (+425), Patricio Pitbull (+185) and Michael Johnson (+550) all pulled off upsets on the main card.
What’s on Deck This Week?
MLB is fully back from their All-Star Break, while the WNBA comes out of their break to start the second half of their season.
The PGA Tour heads to the Twin Cities for the 3M Classic, the 2nd to last regular season event before the FedExCup playoffs.
Won’t be a great field as the best in the world just finished over in Northern Ireland, but the event does have significance for those that need to get into the Top 70 of the FEC Standings to make the playoffs.
Full card on Wednesday, but names to start looking at include the red shot Chris Gotterup, former U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark, who had an outstanding final three rounds at the Open, defending champion Jhonattan Vegas and Keith Mitchell.
UFC Fight Night, from the UAE at 3 ET on Saturday, features Robert Whittaker (-162) vs. Reinier De Ridder (+136) in a Middleweight Bout.
NASCAR is at the Brickyard in Indy for the Brickyard 400.
Betting Expert Tip of The Week
Filter Through the Noise
Everyone has their system or their way of attacking the lines. I am more of an aggregator of information, meaning I gather all the info I can in order to make the best decision. With that comes a lot of noise to filter through, which is the first step in trying to decide what to use and what not to use.
There is no perfect science, but historical betting stats that go too far back (different coaches/players) or small sample sizes are usually just noise. Settle on relevant stats or trends that help you and trusted sources that make you smarter. That will help you in the long run.
Oh No! That Did Not Just Happen!
In this section will be reserved for our favorite Bad Beats, backdoor covers or general nonsense we saw. If you see one, send me a DM at @davidbearman on Twitter. I can’t possibly see them all.
You all know by now that I am one of the few Marlins fans/alums on this planet, so we are pretty dialed in to the Fish, even if not betting on them. Sometimes, when not around, we get the updates from Mom and Dad down in Florida as they watch every game.
Well, today’s “Oh No! That Did Not Just Happen!” comes from Sunday’s Marlins game, but did not impact the result. The Marlins were down 7-0 in the bottom of the 9th and the sweep of the Royals was pretty much dead in the water.
What wasn’t dead was the under 7.5. Down 7-0, the Marlins were down to their last out with a runner on first when Sanchez walked. The game appeared to be over on the next play, but the Royals committed an error, allowing the bases to be loaded. Miami then proceeded to score four runs on a couple of hits before losing 7-4. Right side, wrong result. I had a few buddies on that bad beat.
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action
Picks and thoughts on Wednesday’s action
PGA Tour’s 3M Open preview and picks
NFL or CFB Future of the Week
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