NBA and NHL Playoffs Continue; We hit a big Golf one

Happy Monday Betting family! One week after hitting 9 of 10 H2H matchups at the Masters, we finally hit our first big outright of the season, nailing Matt Fitzpatrick at 17-1 odds and give out right here on Wednesday. We also had Si Woo Kim at 28-1 and he was T3, so we had two good live ones. Will have total recap of it all down below.

The NBA and NHL playoffs are in full swing with a whole lot more competitive games on the NHL side to no surprise. We will have picks on both for tonight’s action.

While today, like all Monday’s are FREE, make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss full CBB, NBA and golf cards and weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. That Fitzpatrick pick was right there in the premium part of the newsletter.

Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had SportsLine’s Jason Sobel on to preview the RBC, where the Fitzpatrick play was discussed. Former Texan and Jaguar Seth Payne will be on Betting with Bearman on Wednesday to preview the NFL draft.

If you haven’t joined yet, head over to SportsLine, as I have joined their expert ranks as a talent! You’ll see me on the Early Edge on Thursday morning (10a) with some picks, as well as contributing to their site and Discord every day, with the link right here. Make sure to sign up and check that out for even more daily betting content, and a great Discord to be in.

Let me tell you about our new friends at Ungambled. “Ungambled is an app that teaches you how to profit from sportsbook bonuses and promotional offers — legally, systematically, no matter who wins the game.”

We welcome one of our new Betting with Bearman sponsors, TrendsCenter into the fold. I am already addicted to their app, which can be found right here:

TrendsCenter is a sports betting research platform designed to uncover profitable trends, systems, and real data-backed edges across all major sports.

If you’re tired of guessing and want to actually understand why you’re making a bet, this is the tool for you. There’s also a built-in feature that can instantly surface or create trends for you.

Use code BWB for 15% off your subscription and start betting smarter today."

We are going to hit the NBA for today’s trend of the day. This one is straight-forward and directly related to tonight’s Game 2.

When favored against the Raptors by more than 2 points, with a total of less than 224, teams are 8-0 ATS in this season.

The first set of Round 1 games weren’t that exciting as we had one total lead change in the second half of the first 8 games. At least one of the teams to win was the 8 seeded Magic or it would’ve been a total disaster of a first set of games.

Jokic over 9.5 assists (-140) or 10.5 assists (+115) - Check your book

Partnering with a new tool, Sharp Hunter, which can be found here: https://sharphunter.app/chat?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=bearman

It analyzes data from nation's most successful bettors, including betting history and wager amounts, to rate bets on a 1-3 scale. Their last six highly-rated games all won.

Here is what I found using the tool. Check it out!

Evan Mobley under 16.5 points - top play on Sharp Hunter

Click here to jump down to our SharpHunter MLB play of the night. SharpHunter analyzes data from nation's most successful bettors, including betting history and wager amounts, to rate bets on a 1-3 scale. We have a nice 2 bagger for you tonight.

Let’s get you some winning bets!

Don’t go away! We have some more NBA content, another SharpHunter MLB play, our top NHL play, nuggets, and much more

Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks (-5.5, 216.5)

Sometimes, you have to admit you were wrong. Relationships, parenting, betting. All of it. Owning up to your errors is an important part of life.

But not all failures mean you were wrong in the process. Sure, the result may not have been what you wanted, but how you got to the conclusion you did was sound and you'd do it again if given the opportunity.

Well, here we are. Jalen Brunson under 2.5 3PM was a bet that was over before the first quarter in Game 1 and on thin ice less than four minutes into the game as he cashed in his first six shots, two of which were triples. That bet didn't cash and early on, it looked like we could be on the wrong side of history in taking an under during a huge performance. He's a great player on a favored team and looked dominant: so I understand why people far and wide are taking pro-Brunson angles heading into Game 2 and for the remainder of this series.

But I wouldn't change a thing about the Game 1 handicap and, because the NBA isn't March Madness, we get a few more shots at the same matchup.

Yes, he was hot early on Saturday, but yes, he also only finished with four 3PA and if that's on the board, under 2.5 triples is plenty viable. In the opener, 59.1% of his field goal attempts came after 7+ dribbles, a rate far above his regular season rate (40.7%) and in line with what we thought could happen: the length of the Hawks posed a problem.

The more he dribbles, the less likely he is to penetrate and dish or get fouled, neither of which hurts this ticket. In Game 1, he averaged 3.5 drives per 3PA (regular season: 2.1) and drives for a 6'2" guard are what we want when fading him in the 3PM market.

CJ McCollum is the only player in Atlanta's regular rotation that I think New York identifies as a plus-matchup, but even then you're talking about a veteran guard with a wingspan north of 6'6". Brunson is great and he'll probably be great again, but I don't think his most direct path is to be a jump shooter. I have soft plays on the Hawks to cover and the over: this team isn't going quietly and if they compete at the level I expect them too, it's because their length impacts things at even a higher rate than it did over the weekend.
Pick: Brunson under 2.5 3’s (-106)

Philadelphia Flyers (+130) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-155), Total: 6.5

Amazingly, none of the home teams during the first two days of the Stanley Cup playoffs led after the first period. The Penguins look to turn around that trend in tonight's Game 2 against the Flyers.

Pittsburgh dropped the opener to Philadelphia, 3-2 on Saturday, as the teams were scoreless through one period. It marked the 12th consecutive game that the Pens didn't trail after the opening 20 minutes.

Also, Philadelphia has not led Pittsburgh after the first period in five matchups this season, scoring a total of two goals.

Can the Penguins come back from a potential 2-0 series deficit with a loss tonight? Absolutely. But the Pens would rather head to Philly knotted up at 1-1 and they should jump out to a solid start here, so let's take Pittsburgh in the first period of Game 2.

Penguins 1p (-144) vs. Flyers

Partnering with a new tool, Sharp Hunter, which can be found here: https://sharphunter.app/chat?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=bearman

It analyzes data from nation's most successful bettors, including betting history and wager amounts, to rate bets on a 1-3 scale. Their last six highly-rated games all won.

Here is what I found using the tool. Check it out!

Cincinnati Reds (+102) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-122)

How Did We Do?

Now that I am in the SportsLine Discord, I have wall-to-wall picks, even after the newsletter posts. I plan on starting a Discord of my own in the fall.

Let’s go Matt Fitzpatrick! After Shane Lowry teased us and put us in the water last month, we wondered when we’d get our next one. Last week, we got Scottie “without Rory” at +550, and now we follow it up with a +1700 one on Fitz.

Here is a recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and how we did overall on the weekend

GOLF

NBA

NHL

CBASE

Filter Through the Noise

Everyone has their system or their way of attacking the lines. I am more of an aggregator of information, meaning I gather all the info I can in order to make the best decision. With that comes a lot of noise to filter through, which is the first step in trying to decide what to use and what not to use.

There is no perfect science, but historical betting stats that go too far back (different coaches/players) or small sample sizes are usually just noise. Settle on relevant stats or trends that help you and trusted sources that make you smarter. That will help you in the long run.

Subscribe today and get:

• 3 Weekly Newsletters
• Trending stories with picks
• Plays of the Day
• Same-Game Parlays of the Day
• First Access to Exclusive Community