NBA Cup Quarterfinals; Falcons-Bucs Kickoff Week 15's NFL Action

Happy Wednesday betting friends. The newsletter is a little later today as we were at the Garden last night for UConn-Florida and got home waaay late.

We had a great Monday night, hitting the Bears +3, only losing Hurts prop in OT, but hitting a +603 SGP that was given out right here in the newsletter. All because the books don’t allow us to bet alt unders, so Hurts was not in it. Thank you. Side/Total/2 props gave us a nice +603 win and a winning week.

While we give our NBA play out for free tonight, our juicy TNF player prop, SGP and NHL plays are all worth an upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.

We also like to get ahead on Betting with Bearman, so we have our Thursday Night Football card, featuring a player prop pick off the NFC South matchup between the Falcons and Buccaneers, as well as our Same Game Parlay, props and plays for the book promos that are offered.

We also take a look at our Futures portfolio and hit on an NBA and NHL game.

Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we will have the NFL slate covered from head to toe with Yahoo! Sports NFL and betting analyst Frank Schwab.

Let’s get to it!

The NBA quarterfinals switch over to the Western Conference tonight as the Magic and Knicks moved into the Semis from the East last night. We have a play on Spurs-Lakers tonight.

We might get the return of Wemby for a showcase game with a spot in the NBA Cup semis on the line. That's not bad for a marquee game of the day with no football on the docket and only a handful of hockey games.

The books are laying lines on Wemby and this game appears to be lined under the assumption that he returns from this calf injury in at least some capacity. I lean the home team against the number here, but with that large unknown, I've yet to pull the trigger.

What I did find interesting when evaluating this matchup was a very specific part of the defensive profile. Even with their game changer having missed nearly half of their games this season, they allow the second lowest percentage of opponent 3PA to come when left wide open.

With him in the middle, that wouldn't shock me given the area he can cover, but with him having missed 11 games, this feels like a trend that is more the result of a defensive agenda then directly a personal thing.

In three of his past four games with LeBron James, Austin Reaves has seen more than half of shots come from distance. We saw the King step up his aggression during their last game (29 points on 12-of-17 shooting in a win over the 76ers) to make up for an off night from Reaves (11 points, 3-16 FG) and I think we see more of that. If he's attacking down hill, Luka Doncic is soaking up usage at the top of the key, and San Antonio excels at running opponents off of the three-point line, how many triples is Reaves realistically going to get off?

James' three-point rate is pacing to be as high as it's been over the past three seasons and if he's either getting all the way to the bucket or settling for 30 footers, Reaves is kind of left in no man's land.

It's possible that JJ Redick shifts him to a more on the ball role in an effort to keep him engaged, but that would put him in more of a creation role than a scoring one. I think we are looking at 4-6 attempts from deep for him and that makes under 2.5 3PM a decent look given that he'd have to shoot +50% to burn us.

If you want to wait to get Wemby's status, I don't blame you. I think it's a decent look at the current price, but the defensive profile for the Spurs is certainly stronger with the big man in the middle.

Reeves under 2.5 made 3-pointers (-107)

Stick around for our Thursday Night Football play and SGP below