NBA Enters 2nd Half; Is there Value in the MVP Market?

Happy Monday Betting family! We didn’t have a lot to bet on over the weekend, but if you tailed us in golf, you had a wonderful weekend. More on that below, but we will have even more golf this week with the Genesis in L.A.

The NBA doesn’t come out of its All-Star Break until Thursday, but we will have some thoughts on futures to play in the second half of the season.

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Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had golf handicapper Chris Euksuzian on and all he did was give out a 90-1 outright winner in Collin Morikowa.

I am also going to help you in your golf pools with One and Done picks AND access to some awesome golf tools that you can use to help with your pool. Head over to PoolGenius and get Discounts courtesy of Betting with Bearman. We have one of the best non-Majors of the year this week in the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

We are excited about our affiliate deal with our new friends at Betr. Through our partnership, you can sign up now and get $10 free and then a 50% deposit match up to $200 by using the Betting with Bearman sign up link, right here. We are also going to be sending out Betr plays every newsletter and went 3-1 over the weekend!

Let’s get you some winning bets to cash.

Paolo Bancerho has missed 10 games, Jalen Suggs, 20, Franz Wagner 25, and Mo Wagner 40. This has been the second worst ATS team and ranks 25th in eFG% when left wide open.

To say they've underachieved thus far is a vast understatement: they are pacing for 43.5 wins in a depleted Eastern Conference that isn't exactly getting deeper. Coming out of the Break, four of their first eight games come against teams that they project ahead of (Sacramento, Phoenix, Washington, and Dallas) with two of the tough games coming at home (one against a Rockets team on the second night of a back-to-back).

That's some scheduling mumbo jumbo to suggest that the Magic could start the second half of the season winning at a higher rate than they did pre-Break, but that's not it. The larger idea is that this team is poised to jump up in the standings. Toronto and Philadelphia hold the two spots ahead of Orlando in the playoff chase and could well fall back sooner than later.

In this era of load management and schedule finessing, the Magic look like a team that will push to the finish line. We are being charged even juice (-105) to have them hardly improve on what we've seen up to this point despite a talented roster being healthy and motivated.

Consider me in. I think this team could still make a real push for a home playoff series if the cards fall just right and the way the schedule lines up the rest of the way, I don't see much of a path for an extended dry spell. We need a 17-12 second half of the season to get this ticket to the window: I think we are looking at something closer to 19-10.

Don’t go away! We have more NBA futures, College Basketball plays and a recap of the Weekend

I probably would not even consider this if not for the new NBA rule that requires you to play 65 games to be eligible for end of year awards. Cunningham sits third in odds to win MVP, behind SGA, the odds-on favorite at -210, and Nikola Jokic (+300).

Jokic is back from his injury, but has already missed 15 games and would be ineligible if he sits 3 more games, not crazy when you think about load management and a player coming off a month-long injury. The Nuggets have six back-to-backs left on the schedule, so there could be some rest time if they prioritize health over awards.

SGA has missed the last 5 games with an abdominal strain and 7 games overall, so he would still need to miss another 11 games. While he should be back by then, there is no timetable of yet and with we do not know how conservative the Thunder will be with a 3-game lead for best record in the West.

As for Cunningham, he’s the best player on a Pistons team that has a 5.5 game lead in the East and right behind OKC for best record in the NBA. He’s second in the NBA in assists and if he leads the Pistons to the best record in the NBA, the 14-1 odds become even more valuable. Especially if the games missed start adding up for SGA and Jokic.

Syracuse at Duke (-19.5, 144.5)

With this being the third game in six days for Duke, who is a little banged up on the frontcourt, and who has 2nd-ranked Michigan on deck, I was very tempted to take the 19.5. But Syracuse is that bad that I do not trust them. Sure, they have back-to-back wins over SMU and Cal, but one was more about SMU blowing a big lead and other took two OTs at home. Plus Duke is as unbeatable at home as it gets, 12-0 this year and

The Cuse offense goes through Donnie Freeman, who is going to have a devil of a time against the Duke frontcourt. Duke ranks inside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

Duke bounced back nicely from it’s UNC loss to beat down No. 20 Clemson by 13. While they are going to win the game, the 19.5 is a tough pill. Looking at the Blue Devils results, they have not been in a game that reached 144 points in their last six games, playing to 121, 124, 139, 116, 130, 135. Cuse is different as they don’t have a good defense, but if Duke gets up big in the second half, they have to start thinking Michigan is next.
Under 144.5

Houston at Iowa State (-2.5, 134.5)

The Cyclones have graded out well since we started power ranking teams this season and they got some of my futures budget as well.

They’ve been an AP Top 10 team ever since the beginning of December and might be ready for an extended run after taking it to Kansas over the weekend (74-56 win).

If my thoughts of them are accurate, they can truly put the nation on watch by winning tonight against a 23-2 Houston team that is trending well. Iowa State holds a projectable edge in the rebounding department and that strength should be obvious. One aspect that won’t be as evident are the “free” points at the line.

The Cougars are a great team, but their elite FT% does drive some of the offensive stability. Few teams in the nation defend as hard and as clean (low opponent free throw rate) as the Cyclones and if they aren’t giftwrapping points at the stripe, I expect their defense to have more success than the books are giving them credit for.

I can’t shake the Houston loss when they were asked to go to Texas Tech. They coughed up 90 points and while I don’t think Iowa State approaches that number, the fact that something like that is even remotely possible is worries.

Kingston Flemings has been the story for the Cougars and is a reason that many give like them in the futures markets. I have no problem with that as we’ve seen the upside, but have we been blinded a bit by the potential?

We are approaching three weeks since his last made triple from the standout freshman and he’s misfired on 18 of 22 shots over his past two games.

This is the first of three straight massive games for Houston (Arizona over the weekend and a trip to Phog Allen a week from tonight) and while I think they get a positive result or two, I’m not sure it happens tonight.

We’ve lost a point of value on the spread, but I think this is a two-plus possession victory for the home team.

If picking a side scares you, under 66.5 points is also live for Houston in a game that features two below average pace squads.
Iowa State -2.5

Lamar at UT Rio Grande Valley (-6.5, 141.5)

You mean you didn’t wake up today thinking that you’d be betting a Southland basketball game between two teams that have totaled 26 wins and 26 losses this season?

Then you’re in the wrong place. At least for this time of year. We are transitioning to the college basketball takeover until the beginning of April when it comes to betting cards and it’s a glorious time of year.

This number opened at -5.5 for the home team and while it’s ticked up a touch, I still don’t think it’s enough. UT Rio Grande Valley won the first meeting (December 16) without much issue and my numbers suggest that not much has changed over the past two months.

I’ve got them power ranked 150 spots higher: we are getting the team with a better defense, the more efficient offense, and each of their past six wins coming by at least nine points.

In that first matchup, Lamar had no answer for the vaunted Filip Brankovic/Marvin McGhee III tandem (36 points on 58.3% shooting in 54 minutes) and their usage rates have remain unchanged.

Until they show me they have some sort of plan, I expect the home team to funnel everything through two of their top players. When Lamar has the ball, they aren’t all that versatile. Three players score 58.6% of their points and there is some single point of failure concerns with Rob Lee Jr. (24+ points in four of his past six games) against a Top 100 points per possession defense on the other end.

The Cardinals rank outside the Top 200 in turnover percentage: I worry about them keeping pace if the shot count is similar, never mind if they are working at a deficit in that regard because they are loose with the rock.

I think we are looking at something along the lines of 80-65 in a game that features a double digit lead for the majority of the second half.
UT Rio Grande Valley -6.5

How Did We Do?

No NBA or NHL this weekend, but we did give out two picks in our Wednesday newsletter (did not have Friday newsletter) and had action on golf and also had a bunch of Betr plays out there.

Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend and in Wednesday’s newsletter

NBA

GOLF

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