NBA Gets Underway; Vikings-Chargers Kickoff Week 8's NFL Action

Happy Wednesday, also known as Opening Night for 24 NBA teams. We had two games last night, but 12 more tonight.

We also like to get ahead on Betting with Bearman, so we have our Thursday Night Football card, featuring a pick off Vikings-Chargers, as well as our Same Game Parlay, props and plays for the book promos that are offered.

We also take a look at our Futures portfolio and hit on an MLB game.

Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we will have the NFL, NBA, and CFB covered from head to toe with a special guest, Austin Swaim, a researcher for FanDuel Sportsbook.

And upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.

Let’s get to it!

Technically there were two games last night as the defending champion Thunder beat the Rockets and the Warriors outlasted the Lakers. But tonight is the first full slate with 24 teams playing their first game of the season tonight.

We are going to have tons of NBA futures on the Betting with Bearman podcast today with FanDuel’s Austin Swain, but to hold you over, we have a play on a game down in Texas tonight.

Everything is bigger in Texas and that holds true for the front lines of their professional basketball teams.

We’ve obviously got Victor Wembanyama with the Spurs and the Mavs drafted rookie Cooper Flagg as a weapon to a team that has three long bigs that can block out the sun (Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively, and Daniel Gafford). Gafford may or may not play and while we’d prefer that he does, I’m not backing off.

Both of these teams have a point guard I trust running the offense, but neither is playing. De’Aaron Fox is out for a bit with a hamstring injury and Kyrie Irving continues to recover from the ACL tear in March.

These guards are viewed as franchise building blocks and thus, these teams have invested heavily in options behind them. D’Angelo Russell saw his turnover rate increase last season and is inconsistent at best while San Antonio is banking on youngsters to handle the ball-handling duties, both of whom profile more as natural scorers than traditional point guards.

If dribbling is going to be an issue, the pace downside far outweighs the ceiling potential and that naturally places an increased level of importance on efficiency. With San Antonio’s shooters being tasked with varied responsibilities and Dallas’ more catch-and-shoot options than anything, I’m not sure that either team clears 110 points.

I’m taking a skeptical view at the perimeter production in this game and I very much trust these mammoth front courts to make high percentage looks at the rim few-and-far between.

Wemby can be highly efficient at the rim, but Dallas’ size gives them the unique potential to relegate him to jump shooting. He’s capable in that regard, but it’s obviously less analytically sound and that works into our favor.

There’s little debate as to who the best rim protector in the sport is and with neither of the traditional Maverick bigs owning much jump shot touch, I’m not sure where the high scoring stretches come from.

Klay Thompson is the worry. He’s the flamethrower in play here and if he heats up, we are drawing dead.

That said, the 35-year-old isn’t as consistent as he once was and he’s not creating much for himself these days. I expressed concerns in the creation upside of this offense and that lowers the risk we take on by fading Thompson.

I think the odds of a dud quarter are far greater than a 60+ point quarter that puts our position in trouble. This line has dipped two points over the past 24 hours, so if you’re going to get in on the under, I’d do it sooner than later!
Under 224.5

Stick around for our Thursday Night Football play and SGP below