NBA, NHL All Tied Up; What to Look for In Game 3s

Welcome to the second week of June! Hopefully you had some nice winning bets over the weekend (you did if you read Friday’s email) and continue into this week.

The Stanley Cup Final heads to sunny Florida for Games 3 and 4, while the NBA goes to the heartland of Indiana for two games as well. After tennis crowned it’s French Open champions in thrilling fashion, it’s golf’s turn as the U.S. Open gets underway at difficult Oakmont CC outside of Pittsburgh.

And after Texas took down the Women’s College World Series in OKC, we head to Omaha for the Men’s final 8.

Lots to still bet on in June! Happy Betting.

After the Pacers monumental comeback in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, the Thunder made a statement in Game 2, leading for the final 38 minutes of the game. So what should we look for entering Game 3?

For starters, we will bring this back. The Thunder are 0-7 ATS on the road in the post season, which totals the amount of failed covers the last two NBA Champions (Celtics 4-4 ATS, Nuggets 6-3 ATS) had combined.

Dating back to 2003, which was when the NBA switched the first round back to a Best-of-Seven series, no eventual NBA Champion failed to cover in 8 or more road games. The worst road ATS record during this time frame was the 2008 Celtics, who went 5-7 ATS on the road. The 2022 Warriors (4-6), 2019 Raptors (5-6), 2016 Cavs (5-6) and 2010 Lakers (5-6) were the only champions to finish under .500 ATS on the road.

The Thunder are laying 5.5 on the road in Indiana. They have been the favorite in all 7 previous playoff road games, winning four of them. The Pacers are 6-2 at home in the postseason SU and 5-3 ATS.

As for the game itself, our early lean is on a prop if you want to get in early. Will have more on Wednesday ahead of the game.

Game 3: Thunder (-5.5) at Pacers, 228.5, Thunder -205 ML, Pacers +170)

Pascal Siakam's rebound numbers look fine on the surface (17 through two games in this series), but he's being put in less of a position to battle on the glass and with the Thunder finally going to their two-big set in Game 2, his role in that regard could regress before it improves.

During the playoffs as a whole, his rebound conversion rate has dipped from over 59% to under 55%, a big difference when we are talking a single digit prop that where opportunity count is even more magnified. The Pacers are very clearly looking to execute a chuck-and-hope strategy (16 of their first 27 shots in Game 1 were triples and 17 of 27 in Game 2), something that inherently increases the variance in rebounding distribution and plays me off of the "primary" rebounding threats and onto the lesser used players (example: Siakam projects for 6.1 boards in Game 2 with a 7.5 prop while Aaron Nesmith and Tyrese Haliburton are swimming in the same projection pool with props that are 2-3 boards shorter).

Siakam hit eight rebounds just three times in the first three series during these playoffs and while there is some juice attached to his under 7.5 rebounds (-125 DraftKings), you risk losing this number all together if you wait for the market to hammer it into place.

Two exciting games in and two first period overs in the Stanley Cup Final. And neither were a sweat as the first period of Game 1 hit the over 1.5 goals 10.5 minutes in and Game 2 was bonkers with the Panther and Oilers scoring five in the opening period with the bet over by the 7:39 mark.

The books have noticed as well and the juice, which started at -120 in Game 1 is not -145 in Game 3. I am still on over 1.5 goals in opening period as the numbers are as follows:

However, I would understand if you didn’t want to lay the -145. It’s easier to stomach if you bet the first two and are up 2 units. Other options with longer odds that you could play would be both teams to score in first period (+150) as they have in both games so far or you could over 2.5 goals (+230) if you want a long shot and think what happened in the first two games really repeats itself.

As for the game side, I lean Panthers but won’t be laying the -140 as they ironically have played better on the road than at home in the postseason this year and this series has been too close to lay 40 cents.

Updated Game 3 Data from BetMGM

Oilers (+118) at Panthers (-140), 6.5

Updated Series price: Panthers -115, Oilers -105

Tip: If you have a strong sense of who is going to win this series, you should bet the series tonight before the odds drastically change in favor of the Game 3 winner (oh, and let me know who it is!).

It’s U.S. Open golf week and this year it is in Oakmont, PA. We have opening thoughts below and will have complete breakdown later in the week, but here are the opening odds of the last 10 U.S. Open Champions.

2024 Bryson DeChambeau 20-1
2023 Wyndham Clark 100-1
2022 Matt Fitzpatrick 30-1
2021 Jon Rahm 10-1
2020 Bryson DeChambeau 25-1
2019 Gary Woodland 80-1
2018 Brooks Koepka 25-1
2017 Brooks Koepka 30-1
2016 Dustin Johnson 12-1 (at Oakmont)
2015 Jordan Spieth 8-1

Tampa Bay Rays (-104, Shane Baz) at Boston Red Sox (-116, Brayan Bello), 9

The Rays have looked like a different team over the past three weeks and I like getting them as a slight road dog in this spot. After opening the season 21-26, Tampa Bay is 14-4 since and three of those losses came by a single run in winnable games.

They've won all three of Shane Baz's starts over that stretch and things are trending in the right direction for the 25-year-old. He's walked just one batter over his past two starts (multiple free passes issued in five straight outings prior) and while he can still be victim to the long ball (HR allowed in seven straight starts, including three instances in which he allowed multiple), that projects to be less of an issue against this version of the BoSox.

Over the past month, Boston ranks 27th in average launch angle, a significant downturn for a team that ranked 11th for the season prior. I'm no rocket scientist, but if elevating the ball is an issue, taking advantage of Baz's primary weakness could/should be too.

Opposing him tonight is Brayan Bello, a former hot shot prospect that hasn't found consistent success in the bigs. This year, his ERA sits a tick below 4.00, but with a 5.71 xERA (trending toward a fourth straight season with advanced numbers moving in the wrong direction), the ERA looks like more trick than treat.

Specific to this matchup, his OPS against lefties is 26.6% higher than against righties and with both of the Jonathan Aranda (surprise .320 hitter so far) and the Lowe boys both hitting from that side of the dish, we could be looking at a game in which the road team gets a lead early and never gives it up.

Understanding that everyone gambles differently, I think there are a few ways to play this spot that. If you prefer to chase some plus-money, fading Bello and betting the Rays to be the first team to score four runs (+100) or five runs (+130) is certainly live. If you want the more conservative angle, taking them +0.5 runs through the first five innings (-154) is available to you at DraftKings.

We are going with the Rays moneyline (-104) and will be exploring SGP options that include Bello recording under 17.5 outs as well as the Rays to lead after five innings and win the game.

Bonus: We won’t have newsletter tomorrow and the prices are not out yet, but we are expecting the books to finally not price Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara as an ace when lines post on Tuesday morning.

Alcantara was once viewed as a foundational building block, but these days, he’s having troubles getting out of his own way. After missing all of last season, the 2022 NL Cy Young Award Winner has allowed 50 earned runs in 57 innings (7.89 ERA, for the record, he allowed 58 across 228.2 innings during that storybook 2022 season).

Could this be a “get right” spot for the 29-year-old righty? He looked fine on Tuesday against the glorified minor league team known as the Rockies, but we have to take context into consideration when it comes to our excitement level from that quality effort (six innings, five baserunners, two earned runs).

The month of May was a brutal one for Alcantara, but we did see him show up for stretches in the first month of the season, a stretch that started with an erratic, but not awful, outing against these Pirates (4.2 innings, two hits, two earned runs, four walks, seven strikeouts). If he can get a good feel for the strike zone from the jump, he should be able to thrive Tuesday tonight against a bottom-10 team in zone contact rate.

Pittsburgh is coming off a three-game sweep of the Phillies, all of which were one-run games. With the Pirates winning streak and Alcantara struggling, you should be able to get the Marlins as an underdog. I don’t like ever giving out the Marlins as a play, but it is worth monitoring when the price comes out.

Seven tickets are punched with Duke (-260) hosting Cinderella’s Murray State (+195) for the 8th and final spot in the College World Series.

As for the seven that will travel to Nebraska this week, only three national seeds survived in Arkansas (3), LSU (6) and Oregon State (8). The Tigers and Beavers have combined for 10 national titles, including 5 of the last 18 dating back to 2006. Arkansas (+230) is the new tournament favorite after sweeping last year’s champion Tennessee and is looking for it’s first national title. LSU (+240) has second-shortest odds and Oregon State (+650) has the fourth.

The rest of the field includes 13th-seeded Coastal Carolina (+600), winners of 23 straight games, 15th-seeded UCLA (+1000), 4-time champion Arizona (+1100), who knocked off 5th-seeded UNC in Chapel Hill and ACC surprise Louisville (+1400), who beat Miami after knocking off top-seeded Vanderbilt in the regionals.

For my money, I still think LSU is the best team and Coastal Carolina has the best value. The Chanticleers have won 23 consecutive games and have the 2nd-best ERA in the nation. The pitching dominated 4th-seeded Auburn and could very well lead Coastal to their 2nd national title. Their side of the bracket in Omaha features Oregon State and 2 unseeded teams in Louisville and Arizona and they will be the favorite to advance.

Update Odds to Win CWS

Arkansas (+240)
LSU (+240)
Coastal Carolina (+600)
Oregon State (+650)
UCLA (+1000)
Arizona (+1100)
Louisville (+1400)
Duke (+2500) vs Murray State (+8000) face off tonight

How did we do? Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and everything else we know about the sports betting world over the last few days.

What Else Happened This Weekend?

We could (doubtful) crown an NHL champion as early as Saturday, but the NBA will have to wait until at least Monday.

In addition to the NBA and NHL championship rounds continuing, we have the U.S. Open in golf, the College World Series tipping off and a UFC Fight Night card in Atlanta. Some quick thoughts to get you ready for the week:

Bankroll Management Above All Else

I could give you 1000 tips, but above all else, be smart with your money. Know your limits and stick to them. Chasing losing bets is never a good idea. Identify what your bankroll is and stick to those guidelines, and you can have fun without worrying too much. It’s not fun to lost but even less fun when you lose and aren’t protecting your bankroll. Bet with what you have and not with what you need.

This section will be reserved for our favorite Bad Beats, backdoor covers or general nonsense we saw. If you see one, send me a DM at @davidbearmanPFN on Twitter. I can’t possibly see them all.

You didn’t think we’d make it through the newsletter without something on the awesome French Open final from Sunday, featuring Tennis’s new rivalry? An epic 5-set match with a comeback for the ages. Carlos Alcaraz was down 2 sets to 1, 5 games to 3 in the 4th set and 40-love, down 3 match point. And won! My apologies if you were holding a Sinner futures ticket. Might want to re-evaluate betting tennis.

What were his odds at that very moment from the picture above? 50-1 live!! $10 would’ve gotten you a cool $500.

Putting this in betting perspective, Buster Douglas was +4200 to knock of Mike Tyson in 1990. Currently, the Patriots and Cowboys are +6000 to win next year’s Super Bowl and Florida (+4500) and South Carolina (+5000) are in that range for the CFP.

Thoughts and Picks on Tuesday’s main action