Happy Monday Betting family! I hope you all enjoyed the Masters as much as I did. I always enjoy it and Rory and company sure gave us quite a show. Plus it helps that we gave our winning picks all weekend. 9-1 in daily H2H plays! Including 8-0 from Friday to Sunday. Love it.
The NBA has the night off as it gets ready for the play-in tournament that starts tomorrow. We have early previews on that, NHL play of the night, and multiple baseball games.
While today, like all Monday’s are FREE, make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss full CBB, NBA and golf cards and weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had SportsLine’s Brady Gannon on to preview the Masters. We are confirming another great guest for this week.
Speaking of SportsLine, some news to report. I will be joining the expert ranks over there as a talent, starting today! You’ll see me on the Early Edge tomorrow morning with some picks, as well as contributing to their site and Discord every day, with the link right here. Make sure to sign up and check that out for even more daily betting content, and a great Discord to be in.
Let me tell you about our new friends at Ungambled. “Ungambled is an app that teaches you how to profit from sportsbook bonuses and promotional offers — legally, systematically, no matter who wins the game.”
TrendsCenter Trend of the Day
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After hitting a plus money trend last Friday, we are going to with an MLB one today that has hit nearly 54% over the last 10 years.
This one is quite simple, and listed under “Simple” section of the TrendsCenter app. Bet on a team that lost 1-0 the day before. In this case, we have the Mets getting +146 at the Dodgers. Obviously betting against the champs on the road is no easy thing to do, but the plus money helps.
Back Team off 1-0 loss
Trend is 1-1 this season, with the loss being on Friday vs. our other trend that we won with anyhow with the Rays.
NBA Play-In Preview
The play-in games are all this week before the playoffs kick off on Saturday. Starting with two games on Tuesday.
10 Heat at 9 Hornets (-5.5, 227.5)
For those new to the play-in tournament, the winner of the Miami-Charlotte 9-10 game plays the loser of the 7-8 76ers-Magic game for the 8 seed. The winner of 76ers-Magic gets the 7 seed. Quiz tomorrow.
There’s not a lot to like about the Heat right now, who went from a possible 5 seed all the way down to the 10 seed with losses in 10 of 13 down the stretch before winning two meaningless games at the end.
During this stretch, the Heat defense has been the issue, allowing 127.5 PPG, fourth-worst in the NBA and only ahead of of three non-playoff teams. Opponents are shooting over 50% and controlling the pace.
Charlotte finished strong, winning 10 of the final 15 games.
The teams split two March meetings, with the Hornets winning by 30 in the last meeting in Charlotte.
Hornets finished season at 50-32 ATS, the best in the NBA.
Also like Tyler Herro u21.5 points. During this Heat mess of a stretch, he's avg 18.2 per game and that includes two 30-pt games. Hit 22 in only 3 of last 13 games and 13 PPG over last 4 games
Will have final picks tomorrow on Twitter/X, including prop of the night, but early lean is Hornets -5.5
Click here to jump down to our Blitzanalytics.co prop of the night. We went 3-2 last week with our Blitz Analytics plays and sitting at 14-9 overall.
Click here to jump down to our SharpHunter MLB play of the night. SharpHunter analyzes data from nation's most successful bettors, including betting history and wager amounts, to rate bets on a 1-3 scale. We have a nice 2 bagger for you tonight.
Let’s get you some winning bets!
Don’t go away! We have some more NBA in-play content, multiple MLB plays, or top NHL play, nuggets, and much more
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More NBA Playoff/Play-In Preview
8 Trail Blazers at 7 Suns (-4.5, 218.5)
Winner gets the 7 seed and San Antonio Spurs in the first round. Loser drops down to play the winner of Wednesday’s Warriors-Clippers game for the 8 seed.
Teams come in fairly evenly matched with Portland maybe one year ahead of schedule with their rebuild.
Suns: 4th best under team 46 to 36.. Portland half and half
Expect the Suns to set the pace in this one. 24th in NBA in pace
Booker: getting hot at the right time. He's scored 30+ in five of the last six games, averaging 31.7 per game. If Suns are to win and move on, it's going to go through Booker (shooting 49 pct in the last 6 games), with 2+ 3s in all of them.
Lean Suns -4.5, under 218.5 and Booker o26.5 points, but will have official plays tomorrow.
NHL on the Ice
Colorado Avalanche (-115) at Edmonton Oilers (-105), Total: 6.5
Edmonton wrapped up a playoff berth on Saturday in spite of its 1-0 loss to Los Angeles. The Oilers still have a shot to win the Pacific Division with two games remaining, sitting one point back of the Golden Knights.
The Avalanche have nothing to play for with three games left, owning the most points in the league.
Edmonton trailed L.A., 1-0 through one period on Saturday, but the Oilers have not trailed through 20 minutes in consecutive games since early January.
Colorado scored two goals in the first period in each of the first two matchups with Edmonton, but the Oilers should jump out to a fast start tonight with plenty on the line.
Oilers 1p (-108)
MLB Corner
Partnering with a new tool, Sharp Hunter,which can be found here: https://sharphunter.app/chat?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=bearman
It analyzes data from nation's most successful bettors, including betting history and wager amounts, to rate bets on a 1-3 scale. Their last six highly-rated games all won.
Here is what I found using the tool. Check it out!
Red Sox (-171) over Twins - top play on Sharp Hunter
Rated a two-bag play, with Sharp Money edge of +2%, meaning the best % and money % are closely aligned with sharp bettors and backing the Red Sox money line
Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet is on the mound, with opponents hitting just .212 against him this season and with a K/9 ration of 11.4.
Boston started awful, but have won 4 of the last 5 heading into Minnesota.
The Twins throw Bailey Ober and his 5.27 ERA to the mound.
Red Sox have a clear edge here and the sharps are backing it.
Blitz Analytics Play of the Night
Drake Baldwin over 1.5 bases (+130)
Hit this prop in 8 of 16 games this season; gone for 3 total bases in 7 of 16 games
At least one hit in 81.3 pct of games (13/16)
Averaging 2.47 total bases per game
Marlins starter Eury Perez has been hit in this 3 starts this year (4.40 ERA) , only lasting 5 IP on average
Baldwin is 2-for-4 in his career vs. Perez with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs.
Getting plus money at +130
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
Now that I am in the SportsLine Discord, I have wall-to-wall picks, even after the newsletter posts. I plan on starting a Discord of my own in the fall.
We did exceptionally well with the Masters, especially in our round-by-round picks, which I will detail below. Remember, it’s massively important to follow me on Twitter/X as there is so much to bet after the Friday newsletter comes out.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and how we did overall on the weekend
GOLF
Went 2-0 in H2H’s in Friday’s newsletter. But that was just the beginning
Friday: 2-0
Saturday: 3-0 (all on Twitter and in SportsLine discord)
Sunday: 3-0 (all on Twitter and in SportsLine discord)
Gave out Scottie Scheffler “Win without Rory” market at +550
That’s right, 8-0 in round H2hs from Friday-Sunday with a big prop win.
As for our Wednesday Masters preview, we hit
Patrick Reed Top 20
Cameron Young Top 10
Xander Schauffele Top 10
Went 1-3 in H2H plays
Rahm and Si Woo were big busts for us
NBA
Friday was not a good day in the Association as we missed on Raptors and Mobley, but we did hit on our TrendsCenter suggested play on the 76ers.
CBASE
Went 3-1 in our Friday college baseball solo picks, and missed the MLP and added plays over the weekend
Friday: 3-1
Saturday: 1-2
Sunday: 1-0
5-3 overall gave us a winning week.
If not in the newsletter, make sure to catch them on Twitter/X
Betting Tip of the Week
Filter Through the Noise
Everyone has their system or their way of attacking the lines. I am more of an aggregator of information, meaning I gather all the info I can in order to make the best decision. With that comes a lot of noise to filter through, which is the first step in trying to decide what to use and what not to use.
There is no perfect science, but historical betting stats that go too far back (different coaches/players) or small sample sizes are usually just noise. Settle on relevant stats or trends that help you and trusted sources that make you smarter. That will help you in the long run.
Full RBC Heritage Preview
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action in NBA playoffs, MLB, NHL, College baseball
Jason Sobel on Betting with Bearman
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