Happy Monday Betting family! It’s one of the top weeks sports fans (and non sports fans) look forward to each week... NCAA Tournament week, when 68 teams have 3 weekends to bring a title home.
Beyond the madness, we also have slates of NBA and NHL games to look at, a second WBC semifinal in Miami, and another golf event in Florida on tap this week. Plus, we hit a big golf one over the weekend, so we are feeling good after a rough start with Thursday’s withdrawal. Remember to follow me on Twitter/X for all bets that are not in the newsletter.
While today, like all Monday’s are FREE, make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.
Make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had VSiN’s Tim Murray on, and he nailed Purdue (+700) winning the Big Ten. This week, PFSN’s, and Betting with Bearman OG, Kyle Soppe comes back on to break down all things NCAA Tournament.
You know that I only recommend tools I actually use, and PoolGenius is what I’ll be using this year when I build out my March Madness brackets and play in a few NCAA Survivor pools.
They’re offering discounts for the Betting with Bearman family if you want to check it out.
One thing a lot of people miss with bracket pools is that winning isn’t really about predicting every game correctly — it’s about understanding what everyone else in your pool is picking and finding the right spots to differentiate. PoolGenius shows public pick rates alongside win probabilities and then generates optimized brackets based on your pool settings, which makes the process a lot more strategic.
They also have an NCAA Survivor tool, which is pretty unique. If you’ve played NFL Survivor, think of NCAA Survivor as packing an entire NFL Survivor season into about three weeks — with even more strategy because of how the tournament works. Their tool grades every possible pick based on win odds, popularity, and how saving teams for later rounds impacts your chances to survive the pool.
If you want to get a feel for the strategy side of survivor pools, their NCAA Survivor Strategy Guide is a good place to start:
They also have an article covering where to play NCAA Survivor Pools if you’re looking for one.
I’ll be using it when I put my brackets together next week, and if you’re looking for an edge in your bracket or survivor pool this year, it’s definitely worth checking out.
We also have our affiliate deal with our new friends at Betr. Through our partnership, you can sign up now and get $10 free and then a 50% deposit match up to $200 by using the Betting with Bearman sign up link, right here.
Let’s get you some winning bets to cash this week!!
March Madness First Look
We are here. 68 teams. 1 Champion. Sounds like a CBS promo. It’s that time to fill out your brackets, but we are more than that at Betting with Bearman. Brackets are fun and cool, and hopefully you are still in it after Thursday. But you do so much more for the next three weeks.
67 games to consider betting
Seed pools (pick a team on each seed line)
Capture pools (based on ATS)
Survivor (one of hardest pools each year)
There’s even square pools (no thought needed!)
We are here to help you get ready for all of that. We are going to start with a region by region preview of what we like from a betting (and survivor) point of view. Game picks will come in Wednesday’s newsletter, so make sure you don’t miss that one!
For the preview below, going to give thoughts on the favorite and a longer shot to take in each region.
East Region
Duke (+380 title, -130 region)
No one is going to fault you for just plugging in Duke as they are without a doubt the best team in the region and possibly the country.
Two losses, by a total of 5 points to two ranked teams is all that’s bad on the resume. They are No. 1 in KenPom, with 4th-ranked offense and 2nd-ranked defense.
However, they have some injury concerns that do have me looking further down the board for some value.
St. John’s (+10000 title, +1400 to win East )
Underseeded after winning the Big East regular season and Tournament titles, beating No. 2 seed UConn by 20..
The Johnnies won 16 of their final 17 regular-season games, before sweeping the Big East Tournament for the second straight year. The lone loss? To UConn.
Biggest issue with the draw is drawing Duke in Sweet 16 should they get past Kansas.
Per KenPom, St. John’s is rated 16th in the country, with an offensive rating of 120.1 (44th) and a defensive rating of 94.2 (12th).
St. John’s head coach Rick Pitino has taken three different schools to the national semifinals, making seven appearances, with two national titles.
East Analysis
For me, Duke is still the play, and I don’t mind the -130 price to get there. If you want to go deeper, 14-1 on St. John’s has good value if they can beat Duke. But on the short list of coaches that i think can put up a game to beat the Blue Devils, Pitino would be one of them. Should they get past Duke, they can beat either Michigan State or UConn. Another play to look at would be Michigan State, but beating UConn and then Duke is a tall order.
West Region
Arizona (+330 title, -140 to win West)
Taking my Florida alumni card aside, this might be the best team in the country.
They are incredibly deep, with 7 players averaging at least 8.7 points a game.
Big 12 POY Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries can win any game for this squad.
KenPom’s 3rd ranked team, with 5th-ranked offense and 3rd-ranked defense. Two losses this season to ranked teams by a combined eight points.
Won the best conference in basketball regular season and tournament titles, and have wins over Florida, UConn, Alabama, Houston, Iowa State and Kansas this season.
Purdue (+2700 title +450 to win West)
TBH, i don’t like anyone in the West region outside of Arizona. I think they walk to the Final Four. But we aren’t here to just give favorites out all day and I promised two per region. I considered Arkansas because they have one of the top players in the country in Acuff Jr., but I’ve also seen them enough times to not be surprised if they lose to Wisconsin in 2nd round.
Purdue, meanwhile, for those that have short memories, was No. 1 in the country to begin the season, and started out 17-1. But the end of regular season, where they went 6-7 had people jumping off the express. But a 4-day run through the Big Ten tourney reminded everyone of what they were supposed to be.
KenPom has Matt Painter’s team as the 2nd-best offense in the country, and if they play defense like they did over the last four days, they can get to Indy.
West Analysis
I am still taking Arizona, and will have them in the national title game. I don’t think the West region is that difficult and would be surprised if anyone outside the top 5 seeds is playing in the Elite 8. Miami could make a run if they knock off Purdue, but they also have to play Missouri in St. Louis first. Arkansas has one of the best players in the region, but are not deep and Arizona can wear them down. Wisconsin can get hot and beat anyone, but can also losing the first round. I see this as being 1 vs. 2 in San Jose.
Midwest
Iowa State (+1800 title, +340 Midwest region)
This is where I have my first upset, as I am taking Iowa State to win the region at +340).
Nothing against Michigan, as they are a top team for a reason. But choosing between -120 on Michigan and +340 on Iowa State and I am taking a Cyclones team that is on my short list of teams that can win it all. Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg, the Big Ten Player of the Year, sprained his ankle late in the Big Ten title game loss to Purdue, which adds more bullets to my pick.
Iowa State finished third in the Big 12, behind two of the top-5 teams in the nation in Arizona and Houston. The Cyclones completed non-conference play undefeated and five of the Cyclones seven losses were to ranked teams.
The Cyclones have wins over St. John’s (a No. 5 seed), Purdue (a No. 2 seed), who was the top-ranked team in the country before the game, Houston (a No. 2 seed), and Kansas (a No. 4 seed).
Per KenPom, Iowa State is rated sixth in the country, with an offensive rating of 123.8 (21st) and a defensive rating of 91.5 (fourth).
The trio of Milan Momcilovic (17.0 PPG, 50% from 3-pt), Tamin Lipsey (13.3 PPG, 5.0 APG), and Joshua Jefferson (16.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 5.0 APG) combine for 46.9 PPG.
Tennessee (+10000 title, +1600 Midwest region)
You start crossing each team off one by one when you get past Michigan and Iowa State, stating an issue for each team. Tennessee is no exception, but they have the talent to make a run, and I am not particularly scared of their draw.
Ja'Kobi Gillespie is a stud and Rick Barnes has taken teams deep before. The one big hump is that Final Four berth that has alluded Tennessee forever.
Let’s not forget, this squad has wins over Houston, Alabama, Louisville, and Vanderbilt.
The Vols are also the nation's top offensive rebounding team, and they finished second in defensive efficiency in the SEC.
Their chances likely come down to Nat Ament playing or not, as they are a much more difficult team with him healthy.
Midwest Analysis
To me, Iowa State prevents the Tournament from having all four one seeds in it for the second straight year. And with NIL, transfer portal, and everything else, chalk is here to stay. The bottom of the MW bracket should be very interesting, as Iowa State, Virginia, and Tennessee are all all solid teams. Michigan has a much easier time at the top as I don’t trust Alabama and Texas Tech is missing Toppin. The Wolverines likely walk to Chicago and the Elite 8, but any of those three teams can beat them and go to Final Four.
West Region
Florida (+800 title, +160 to win South)
You’d be surprised if I picked anyone else besides the defending champs and my alma mater, right?
Full transparency, I think this is the most wide-open region of them all and would not be surprised to see a number of teams challenge Florida.
Defending champion Florida have won 12 of their last 13 games, winning nine of the 12 games by double-digit points.
Per KenPom, Florida is rated fourth in the country, with an offensive rating of 125.6 (ninth) and a defensive rating of 91.7 (sixth). 22 of the last 23 national champions finished in the top 25 of both offensive and defensive rating at KenPom.
The SEC regular-season champions are battle tested, with a 6-point loss in Las Vegas to Arizona (No. 1 seed in West), a 1-pt loss at current top-ranked Duke (No. 1 seed in East), and a 4-pt loss to UConn at MSG (No. 2 seed in East)
In those three losses, all in November/December, Florida shot a combined 25% from beyond the arc. In Florida’s first 20 games of the season, the Gators shot 29% for three, in the bottom third of the country and lost six games. Since Feb. 1, Florida shot 37% from beyond the arc, good for No. 78 in the country, with the lone loss being on Saturday in the SEC semifinals (made 5-17).
The Gators lead the country in rebounds per game (45.4), and margin (14.5), second in offensive rebounds (16.0), fourth in defensive rebounds (29.7). Florida’s Rueben Chinyelu, the SEC defensive player of the year, leads the country in rebounds per game (11.5)
Illinois (+2200, +370 to win South)
You zig, I am going to zag. This is purely game theory as, like I said above, I think many teams in this region can challenge Florida.
Houston is going to be Mr. Popular for two reasons. 1) they led Florida for most of the national title game last year and 2) the regional is in.. Houston (that’s another story).
So if a whole bunch of people are going to be on Houston, including most of the general public, Illinois presents value.
Oh, and by the way, they have the nation’s No. 1 offense, per KenPom and are KenPom’s 7th-ranked team. Not bad for a 3 seed. Of course, they probably have to beat Houston in Houston and then the defending champs, but alas.
West Analysis
It’s Florida’s to lose as they still have best profile, the deepest squad and have been there to win it all before. That said, to me this is the most competitive region and a can see any of the top 7 seeds winning it. Houston battled Florida and nearly won the national title last year; we talked about Illinois above; Nebraska started the year 20-0 and have a top-10 defense; Vanderbilt just boat raced Florida and nearly won the SEC title; UNC has a win over Duke on it’s resume; and Saint Mary’s is no slouch. I’m sticking with the Gators, but if you are looking for upsets, this is the region to play them.
My Elite 8/Final Four
1 Duke over 3 Michigan State
1 Arizona over 2 Purdue
2 Iowa State over 1 Michigan
1 Florida over 3 Illinois
Florida over Duke, Arizona over Iowa State
Florida over Arizona for title
Don’t go away! We have NBA, NHL, and WBC plays, thoughts, and much more
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NBA on the Court
Golden State Warriors (-7.5, 2323.5) at Washington Wizards
It's a week (a month) of Madness on the hardwood and while we will dive into the college side of things soon enough (check out the podcast!), we still have a repulsive play on the pro circuit.
An under involving the Wizards. The same Wiz Kids that allowed Bam Adebayo to hang 83 on them last week. The same Wiz Kids who have beat one team since the Super Bowl. The same Wiz Kids who are more worried about ping pong balls than results.
Washington is a mess, I'm not sure you need me to tell you that. They've been led in scoring by a different player in five consecutive games and, spoiler alert, it's not because they have tremendous depth. They had as many turnovers as 3PM in their last game, a non-acceptable happening in today's league, and while the rank second in tempo over the past 10 games, a bottom 10 turnover rate alongside a bottom 3 rebound and assist rate undoes any scoring equity that comes with the tempo.
Over that same 10 game window, the Warriors rank 25th in pace and as the favorites, they are more likely than not to dictate how this one goes. They played last night in New York and have three games in four nights starting Wednesday ... they are navigating a handful of injuries as it is and appear to be content with the 9-10 play-in game seeding wise, so I'm not expecting them to push the envelope in this spot.
Under 232.5 points for the game looks OK to me, but any Wizards game comes with chaos potential over the final five minutes, so I'm going with under 56.5 in the first 12 minutes. These are two of the six lowest scoring first quarter teams for the season, a season that includes data with Steph Curry and a version of this Washington team that was trying.
The total isn't high by today's standards, but fading the Wizards isn't a bad idea and a fatigued/shallow Warriors team that is hoping to get Draymond Green (back) back tonight is unlikely to come out on fire. Green's return in this non-Steph world would be optimal: a limited factor on the offensive side that will play physical against a Wizards front line that is about as frail as it gets.
The Dubs failed to clear 27 points in each of their final three quarters last night at The Garden and if that's the case in Q1 and they win the period (-180 to do so), then we are cashing this ticket!"
First Quarter u56.5
More NBA on the Court - Prop It Like It’s Hot
We missed our Per Blitz Analytics play last Friday when Randle barely played the 4th quarter. He had 4 rebounds in the first 15 minutes, so we were looking good. Back on it today with a couple of props.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker over 17.5 points
We like Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s points prop tonight, at home vs. the Magic. He’s been averaging 20.0 PPG and nearly 21 PPG over the last 5 games. We dove into Blitz Analytics to get more information.
Season Average: 20.0 PPG (+2.5 over line), 61.3% hit rate
Recent Form: 3 straight overs (20, 29, 23), averaging 20.6 PPG in last 5 games
Home Performance: 60.0% hit rate at home (19.5 PPG avg)
Orlando Defense: Allows 20.2 PPG to starting SGs (Alexander-Walker is the starting SG)
Sets up for a good pace game: 2nd-fastest pace at home (Hawks) vs 7th-fastest (Magic) = more possessions
Usage: Alexander-Walker is Hawks' #1 3PT shooter (3.1 per game, 9th in NBA)
Injuries: Orlando missing Wagner & Black (36+ PPG, elite perimeter defenders)
Possible lookahead Spot: Orlando has OKC tomorrow (potential letdown tonight)
Hawks Rolling: 9-game win streak, playing elite basketball at home
Stephen Castle over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists
Diving into Blitz Analytics to get more information:
Recent Form: 80% in L5 (4-5), averaging 13.8 R+A (+1.3 over line)
Last time vs Clippers: 16 R+A (8 reb, 8 ast) on March 6
Kawhi Leonard DOUBTFUL: LAC allows 8.97 R+A to PGs without Kawhi (vs 8.08 with him).
Spurs Dylan Harper OUT: 6.1 R+A up for grabs (Castle's usage increases)
LAC Defense: 18th vs PGs (8.27 R+A allowed vs 8.09 league avg)
Minutes: Castle plays 29.7 MPG (30+ expected tonight)
NHL on the Ice
Boston Bruins (+102) at New Jersey Devils (-122); Total: 5.5
Boston has struggled in the first period recently, getting held scoreless in three straight games and five of the past six. The Bruins head to New Jersey following a shootout victory at Washington on Saturday.
The Devils held off the Kings on Saturday, 6-4 to snap a two-game slide. More importantly, it was the first time New Jersey led after the first period since January 25, snapping a 13-game winless streak in the opening 20 minutes.
New Jersey seeks revenge for a 4-1 loss at Boston in early December. The Bruins have led after the opening period twice in the past 10 games off a victory.
Look for the Devils to get off to a strong start and lead the Bruins after one period.
Devils 1st period (-116)
World Baseball Classic
Venezuela (-190) vs. Italy (+155), Total: 10
I was going back and forth on this one and was likely not playing it until Italy announced Aaron Nola as the starter.
The Phillies ace shut down Mexico last week and should give Italy a slight advantage that helps us take the +155. They haven’t lost yet and I expect the surprise run to continue into a rematch with USA.
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
We finally hit an outright golf winner, hitting a weekend play at +560. It wasn’t in the newsletter, but make sure to follow me on Twitter/X @DavidBearman for constant plays that come out after publish time.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend and how we did overall.
NBA
Lost our Warriors team total under. And lost Julius Randle rebound prop by a the hook when he didn’t play 4th quarter in a blowout
MCBB
Was a rough go of it on Friday, with losses in our Clemson, Alabama, and Seton Hall, Nebraska bets.
But we did hit our St. John’s Big East Tourney winner +290 that made up most, but not all of it.
And if you listened to the podcast, Tim Murray gave out Purdue at +700 to win the Big Ten, which would put us way up on the weekend in CBB.
GOLF
Whoo-hoo! Not in the newsletter, but on Twitter/X and various shows I was on, gave out Cameron Young at +500 after Friday’s action. Was a good way to use the Morikawa refund we got.
We did hit Straka top-20 for the second straight week, and he was in contention for the long shot 54-1 bet.
We lost our lone 72-hole H2H from the newsletter, when Theegala decided Sunday golf wasn’t really needed and he blew a huge lead over Burns. (we are now 6-7-1 in these this season)
We jumped into the round H2Hs on Twitter on Saturday, going 1-0-1 with our plays and 2-1 on Sunday. Now 8-1-2 over the last two weekends in our Twitter/X round plays.
NHL
Pushed our 1st period STL bet (0-0)
WBC
Hit the Canada +4.5 play on Friday night, getting us to 2-1 in the WBC bets.
BETR Plays
Went 0-2 in golf plays for our new partners at BETR (10-10 on the golf season).
If not in the newsletter, make sure to catch them on Twitter/X
Betting Tip of the Week
Stick to Your Strengths, You Don’t Have To Bet the Board
Perfect tip for this week. A common misconception is you should bet every game, but you shouldn’t. Stick to your strengths. Know a particular team well? See edges in totals or first-half bets? Bet what you know and what you know well and not everything and anything.
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main NBA and NHL action
Updated NCAA picks, including First Four
The Valspar Championship PGA Tour preview
NCAA Tournament line movement
PFSN’s Kyle Soppe on Betting with Bearman
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