Happy Friday, somehow in late April. Hope everyone enjoyed the NFL draft last night. It’s a weird event to bet on, and if you read our picks, you now understand it. Austin gave out Proctor at 12 for +900 and hit. His theory was the Cowboys would trade up to the Browns slot at 6 and the Browns would take Proctor at 12. Well, the Browns did trade, to 9 at Chiefs, and the Cowboys did trade, up to 11 with Miami, and Miami did take Proctor at 12. Just like Austin planned.
As I always say: “All bets cash the same”

Today, we have a full newsletter of NBA, NHL, College baseball, and golf.
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Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Former NFL player Seth Payne, current host of Payne and Pendergast, along with Austin Swaim, formerly of FanDuel Research, join me this afternoon to talk all things NFL Draft.
If you haven’t seen it yet, I joined the expert ranks over at SportsLine as a talent! You’ll see me on the Early Edge weekly with some picks, as well as contributing to their site and Discord every day, with the link right here. Make sure to sign up and check that out for even more daily betting content, and a great Discord to be in. I am also on the CBS SN show at 1p ET today with a lot of NBA picks, so check it out!
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TrendsCenter Trend of the Day
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We hit our Wednesday Rockies under nicely, but will pivot to the NHL tonight as one caught my eye. This one is situational based and not team-specific. And it goes back a decade.. hasn’t lost during that time. That’s what I am here for.
This trend applies to the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight.
Back road playoff favorite
Team won previous game in OT as the favorite at home
It’s 10-0 since 2016 playoffs.
Lightning -122 (who are home in Game 2 in OT and now favored on road)
NBA First Round Continues
We have a nice slate of three NBA games tonight. Portland and Philadelphia trying to take 2-1 leads and the Rockets trying to stay in the series vs. the Lakers, heading home.
LA Lakers at Houston Rockets (-8.5, 206.5), Game 3 (LA leads 2-0)
One thing I like to do, but the books also know it, is play on a team in the first half going home down 2-0. It’s part zig/zag theory and part, well, we need to win theory. And other team, in this case the Lakers, got what they needed at home with both wins and don’t come out with same urgency. When I say the books also know it, look at the price. The game total is Houston -8.5. Conventional wisdom, and most regular season NBA games, would mean cut the full game in half and maybe shade a half point to home team. That would mean -4.5 to -5, right? Well, the Rockets are a -6.5-point favorite in the first half. Books caught on a few years ago when the “Bet the Team down 2-0 going home in first half” prop was hitting at 85%. So now, there’s a tax on it. If you still like it, lay the 6.5. I just don’t like the extra 2 points. But I might use it in a SGP with my prop below.
Alperen Sengun o5.5 assists
6 assists in four of the last six, with 5 and 4 in the other two games
14 assist chances in Game 2, with only getting 5; 6 on 10 chances in game one
Lakers game plan is to not let SHEN GUUN beat them scoring, so plenty of passing back out
At least 4 in last 11 games.. 6+ in 7 of those 11
Must win in Houston, and I expect them to play much better
SharpHunter Play of the Night
Partnering with a new tool, Sharp Hunter, which can be found here: https://sharphunter.app/chat?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=bearman
It analyzes data from nation's most successful bettors, including betting history and wager amounts, to rate bets on a 1-3 scale. Their last six highly-rated games all won.
Here is what I found using the tool. Check it out!
Tyrese Maxey under 27.5 points - top NBA play on Sharp Hunter
This is the rare one where the public and the sharps are on the same side. Public backing the under to a 69% bet count but money split is even at 49/51.
Maxey’s playoff average in the two games so far is 25 (21/29). The line is likely inflated by the 31 he scored in the play-in win over Orlando.
Celtics have one of the best perimeter defenses in the league and suffocated him in game 1 (8-20 shooting and only 4 3-pt attempts).
Click here to jump down to our SharpHunter MLB play of the night. SharpHunter analyzes data from nation's most successful bettors, including betting history and wager amounts, to rate bets on a 1-3 scale. We have a nice 2 bagger for you tonight.
Let’s get you some winning bets!
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