NFL Completes Preseason Week 2; MLB Enters the Homestretch

Happy Monday! School is in session for people in the South and camp is over for us in the Northeast, but school has not started yet. Either way, there is plenty of sports going on as we gear up for football season.

College football is just 5 days away and the NFL heads into it’s last week of warming up for Sept. 4th. The PGA Tour completes it’s season this week and NASCAR has it’s last regular season race before their playoff.

As we great up for football season to start, make sure to check out the Betting with Bearman podcasts, on the Bleav podcast network, which will be breaking down all 8 divisions before the season starts.

This past week we previewed the NFC West and AFC East and will have the NFC South and NFC East this week. And much more to come!

Make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.

Texas Rangers (+108, Jack Leiter) at Kansas City Royals (-132, Michael Wacha), 9.5

The starting pitchers in this matchup have combined for more losses than wins this season and both have had some ugly outings this summer (including an air ball from Leiter in this matchup), but that's why this game is priced the way it is.

I'll dance with the recent form over some less-than-encouraging season-long numbers.

We are more than five weeks removed from the last time Wacha allowed more than two runs in a start and it certainly doesn't hurt that he's excelled at pitching in this environment (2.67 ERA at home compared to a 4.00 ERA on the road).

On the flip side, Leiter hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start in two months (no more than a single run in three of his past four) and has posted five of his eight lowest average exit velocity performances this season over the past five weeks.

Both of these pitchers are on regular rest and have been good lately about limiting the long ball. Wacha has completed 5+ innings in 22 of 23 starts since only completing four in the opener and Leiter has gotten there in four of his past six.

The Royals are a disciplined bunch and when things go sideways for Leiter, it's because he struggles to find the zone. For me, that opens the door to a hedge of sorts. For the reasons above, I like under 5.5, -135 runs through the first five innings, but I'm going to layer that with a Royals moneyline (-135) through five innings bet.

The bet here is that if a team costs me on the initial bet, it's the Royals by way of patience at the dish and I can recover some of my losses. It's a loose hedge -- we could easily lose both, but based on the analysis, I like my odds of winning both more than losing both while believing that a split is also more likely than a double loss.

Adjust your units if you'd like, but that's how I'm playing this one. Personally, I bet the under to return one unit and spent a unit on the Royals. If just the under comes through, we break even. If we are looking at a low scoring tie game, we profit as we get our F5 Royals money back. As long as this isn't a high scoring game with the Rangers holding the early lead, we'll exit this game with at least as much money as we entered with!

BONUS BET FOR TUESDAY

Lines aren’t out yet, but we will tell you who Betting with Bearman likes ahead of that. Obviously the line will matter, but we have an early lean without a newsletter tomorrow.

Milwaukee Brewers (Woodruff) at Chicago Cubs (Boyd) - make sure this is the matchup

We get a nice NL Central battle this week, both of whom are looking to peak as we approach the postseason.

It's generally accepted that starting pitchers take a little bit of time to "find their stuff" in any given start. That's partly what makes the first inning markets so compelling -- on the surface, you'd always take "no runs" because aces give up fewer than a run every two innings (a starter would have a 4.50 ERA if they gave up one run every other inning for an entire season). But it's become clear over the years that most pitchers require some time to get into a rhythm, and thus the odds that are provided to us.

"Most" pitchers.

Opponents are hitting just .183 in their first trip through the order against Boyd (otherwise: .252) and he's been a different pitcher since these Brewers beat him up three weeks ago (last three starts: 19 innings, five earned runs, 16 strikeouts against one walk).

On the flip side, we don't have as many innings for Woodruff, but 1-2-3 hitters are 4-of-52 against him this season. That feeds into our NRFI narrative and if you want some ammunition for a strong start, the fact that opponents hit just .156 against him in 2023 on their first trip through the order (he missed all of 2024) is there (more than twice as many strikeouts as hits allowed in those innings).

Both of these starters spit in the face of the slow start assumption and while both of these offenses are capable of putting up crooked numbers, they rarely string them together in the first frame (both own a worse than the standard team in terms of first inning batting average).

There are no shortage of ways to play this angle. If you want a quick settling bet, No Run First Inning is in play. If you want to buy yourself a little breathing room (it's supposed to get a touch more windy in the Windy City as this series wears on), taking the under through the first three innings as these SPs navigate the opposing lineup for the first time, I have no issue. If you want to get aggressive with an SGP where you piece together three scoreless innings to open play, I'm not going to tell you no.

How did we do? Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and everything else we know about the sports betting world over the last few days.

How did the weekend go in the world of Sports Betting?

Make Proper Use of Promos

As I like to tell my wife, sale does not mean free. But it does warrant a closer look.

Promos are the same way. Some are very good and should be used, but not all of them are worth playing. However, if you make proper use of promos, you can increase your chance of profiting.

My favorite promos are the boosts that give you 25-50% (or more) profit on your bet. You are changing the price to your favor, but make sure the original price is not jacked up before the boost.

Some books will make a -150 price -165 and then give you a 25% boost. Not much advantage there. But if the price is consistent, the 25-50% can help you gain an edge.

Also, when a book gives you a boosted price, make sure it makes sense. Just because a book tells you Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 TDs is boosted from -135 to +125 doesn’t mean -135 is the accurate price. Some boosts are “sucker bets.”

Do your best to stay away from those at all times. Always double-check, and don’t forget to check your “max.” If the promo is outstanding and the price is correct, you should max what you can, as you don’t get that advantage all the time, much like the “odds bet” in craps.

We’re baaaack!

This section will be reserved for our favorite Bad Beats, backdoor covers or general nonsense we saw. If you see one, send me a DM at @davidbearman on Twitter. I can’t possibly see them all.

Just warming up for the regular season, the Bears gave us a nice one last night. The total, which opened at 36.5, closed at 40.5 with a lot of action on that over late in the week.

The Bears, up 38-0 late, ended the game on an 11-play 7:28 min drive. 3rd and 2 with 2:29 left, they got a first down at the Buffalo 3 at the 2-min warning. Three kneel downs later, the game ended 38-0.

Yuuup. Welcome to a nice preseason bad beat. Wish I could stop there, but one sports bettor took as stab at a 30-1 win margin bet, one I could not even envision. Sorry dude.

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