NFL is Baaack; A Crazy CFB Weekend Ends Tonight

Now you can relax as we have an entire weekend of CFB under our belts. Naw, it just sparks more debate as all the great teams stink and all the bad teams are awesome. That’s why we should get rid of preseason rankings. They are pointless. Let’s overreact!!!!

But alas, we are here to make bets. We enjoyed watching good CFB and now we have NFL for the next 20 weeks.

Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we will have the NFL covered from head to toe.

And upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.

Let’s take an early look!

After nearly 7 months without an NFL game that counts, the league is back with Week 1 action beginning on Thursday as the Super Bowl champion Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. But that’s not all as we get our 2nd straight year with a Friday game in Brazil, this one with the Chiefs and Chargers, before a full Sunday slate.

We got a taste of the action with non-stop college football this past week, but now the NFL takes over. Let’s take an early look at the Week 1 cards with some early thoughts.

Remember, and this will be repeated in the Tip of the Week below, that the earlier you get on the NFL lines, the better you will be. This week is a little different since the lines have been up since May, but in general, we are going to use this section of every Monday column to find lines to jump on before they move.

We will have a full card later in the week, but let’s take a peek.

What we like/monitoring today

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 47.5) at Cleveland Browns

I have already gone on record as liking the Bengals this season and gave our Joe Burrow as MVP at +650. However, I do not like them in this spot. The Bengals under Zac Taylor are notorious slow starters, losing first 3 last year and starting 0-2 the two previous years, including a 24-3 loss to the Browns in his spot in 2023 and a home loss to the Patriots last year. Cincy won a one-score game in Cleveland last year after losing the previous six on the road there. I still think Cincy wins, but I am looking at the 5.5 and hoping it moves back to 6 or 7. Browns +5.5.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-.5, 47.5)

I sat through this awful game in Indy last year and am not sure either team is much better than they were. Yes, Tua Tagovailoa will play as he missed this one last year for Miami, but Tyreek Hill and DeVone Achane have been banged up and didn’t play much in the preseason. The Colts are going with Daniel Jones instead of Anthony Richardson, but that doesn’t excite me either. The Dolphins front 7 should and could be the difference in this game, but I see this more as a 20-17 game and not coming in close to 47.5. Under 47.5

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 42.5)

I think the Broncos are going to be legit this year with a strong defense and fun offense behind Bo Nix. I am excited to see what Cam Ward can do for Tennessee, but this is his first real NFL game. The Denver defense should give him fits in his debut. Not that you want to use the preseason to gauge anything, but the Denver dee looked great and Tennessee offense did not. I was tempted to lay the 7, but 7.5 scared me away. I see this as a 27-10 type game. Under 42.5

Seattle +2.5 (home vs SF), Atlanta 2.5 (home vs TB), Chargers +3

Welcome back NFL!

On the CFB side, it’s early, but I am starting at Michigan getting a TD on the road at Oklahoma and laying 27.5 with a USC offense that is very good (vs. Ga Southern)

Seattle Mariners (Luis Castillo, -108) at Tampa Bay Rays (Shane Baz (-112), 8.5

Listen, I get it. Calling Seattle bizzaro Coors isn't exactly accurate, but the books certainly do adjust (the opposite way for the Mariners in that their road games see higher totals in a major way) and I think they've overcorrected in this specific instance.

In August, these are the two worst offenses in terms of making contact on strikes. Baz gave up 22 earned runs in 25 August innings, but facing a team that has gaps in their swings should allow him to be more aggressive and thus fix what has ailed him during a tough stretch.

We are exactly two months removed from the last Baz start in which the righty didn't issue multiple free passes. It's possible that he's just a lost man on the mound, but given that he struck out over 12 batters per nine innings last month, this is still a profile I'm interested in, especially in a spot where I expect him to get ahead in counts (.152 batting average against in two-strike counts this year) more often than he has recently.

When it comes to Luis Castillo, he got the brakes beat off of him in August (6.66 ERA with eight homers allowed in five starts). That said, his one quality outing came against these Rays and the more I evaluate that start, the more encouraged I become. He didn't issue a single walk in that start and started 80% of at-bats with a strike, his second best performance of the year in that regard.

Given Tampa Bay's recent struggles with connecting on strikes, he has a chance to show his ace pedigree tonight. Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero have been driving the offensive ship for the Rays this, but Castillo has been oddly successful in slowing those big boppers this year (players batting 3-4 this season: .193 batting average with more strikeouts than total bases).

I'd rather not deal with the bullpens. Instead, I'm laddering this to a degree. If you use a $50 unit, here's my plan (adjust accordingly for what fit your bankroll):

If only the first option gets to the finish line, we offset the money lost in the middle level and lose less than 18% of a unit. Not ideal, but not that bad. If we go under 4.5 runs, you're winning roughly 40% of a unit and if we sweep the board, your $50 turns into $94.79 and you have more funds for the first week of NFL action.

How did we do?

Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) with our first weekend of a full college football slate and everything else we know about the sports betting world over the last few days.

How Did the Weekend Go in Sports Betting

For the NFL, Get in Early

The NFL has the tightest lines of any sport or league, meaning the margin of difference between the lines and power rankings is slim.

The best time to get in on a good number is when they first post on Sunday night. The market is fresh, and it hasn’t been bought into yet. Books spend Sunday evening and even Monday morning adjusting opening numbers to the big bets and sharp action coming in, so get in before they move!

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