Happy Monday Betting family! Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend. Over 250 college players got drafted to NFL teams, the Thunder and Spurs got one step closer to their expected playoff matchup, and two teams said good bye in hockey. And for us crazies, there was a team golf even that one brother got the other a Tour card and we had a winning week in college baseball.
We have three more NBA games tonight, where the Pistons, Nuggets, and Suns all need wins and we will have you covered. Later this week, we have a Signature Event back at Doral for the first time in more than a decade, as well as a Kentucky Derby preview.
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Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had Austin Swain and Seth Payne on to preview the NFL Draft. We are confirming another great guest for this week.
If you haven’t seen it yet, I joined the expert ranks over at SportsLine as a talent! You’ll see me on the Early Edge weekly with some picks, as well as contributing to their site and Discord every day, with the link right here. Make sure to sign up and check that out for even more daily betting content, and a great Discord to be in.
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TrendsCenter Trend of the Day
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Today, we head to the NHL to play on a playoff trend.
Play on the favored away team in game 4 coming off two straight losses. Basically it’s the higher seeded team, who won game 1 and then lost game 2 and 3 and are looking to even the series at 2-games each before going home.
Back NHL road favorite in Game 4, who lost Games 2 and 3
This trend is 5-0 over the last decade.
Tonight, the Golden Knights are the play (-160)
NBA First Round Continues
Game 4: Detroit Pistons (-3.5, 215.5) at Orlando Magic
The Pistons are in not in a win or season ends game like the Nuggets and Suns tonight, but going down 3-1 to the 8 seed probably isn’t a good idea either. I do think the Pistons get right tonight and make it 2-2 heading back to Detroit, which is what they came to Orlando to do, but we want to isolate a player prop instead.
Jalen Duren under 15.5 points
There’s Duran vs. the other 28 teams and then there is Duran vs. the Magic. It’s no secret that the Pistons have struggled vs. Orlando’s defense this postseason, but look no further than Jalen Duran’s stats.
Points: 8, 11, 8. Season avg: 19.5
Shots: 4, 10, 10. Season avg: 11.5
Whatever the Magic are doing downlow in the post, it’s working. They are just not going to led Duran beat them and are forcing him to kick it back out.
And it’s not just a 3-game study. In 14 regular-season games vs. the Magic, he’s averaging 12.7 points per game.
And in last year’s postseason series vs. the Knicks, he was held to 11.3 in 6 games, averaging 6.7 shots per game
They have not figured out how to use him yet, so I will keep taking this.
Duran under 15.5 points
SharpHunter Play of the Night
Partnering with a new tool, Sharp Hunter, which can be found here: https://sharphunter.app/chat?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=bearman
It analyzes data from nation's most successful bettors, including betting history and wager amounts, to rate bets on a 1-3 scale. Their last six highly-rated games all won.
Here is what I found using the tool. Check it out!
Pistons/Magic under 215.5 - top NBA play on Sharp Hunter
With a +13% Sharp Money edge — sharp money is aligned on the Under 215.5
Cade Cunningham has scored at will, but no one else on the Pistons has stepped up as the Magic keep showing their defensive teeth.
Through three postseason games, Detroit is 13th of 16 postseason teams in scoring at 101.3 points pe game, 13th in EFG pct (48.8) and 15th in offensive rating at 103.8.
3 games so far have been 213, 181, 218.
Let’s get you some winning bets!
Don’t go away! We have lots more NBA playoff content, top NHL play, nuggets, and much more, including a weekend recap.
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More NBA Playoff Content
Game 4: Oklahoma Thunder (-11.5, 214.5) at Phoenix Suns
Dillon Brooks over 18.5 points
In three games vs. the Thunder, Brooks has 18, 30, and 33 points, leading the Suns offense.
Just as important, are the opportunities. He’s taken 66 shots, attempting 22, 23, and 21 (22 per game), which is fifth-most of any NBA player this postseason. The top 4 are names you know: Maxey, Cunningham, Brunson, Murray.
He’s attempting an absurd 9.3 3’s per game, which is tied for most in the postseason.
In the 4 regular-season matchups, Brooks scored 19, 16, 22, and 23, beating the 18.5 three out of four times.
The Thunder seem content on allowing Brooks to shoot away while making sure Booker or Green don’t.
Add the fact that this is a little bit of a throw away game for the champs, being up 3-0 on the road, and I see Brooks having another big night. The season is on the line, so unless the Suns are down 30 in the 4th, Brooks will play a lot.
Detroit Pistons (-2.5, 213.5) at Orlando Magic
It’s not technically do-or-die, but it’s do-or-have-your-entire-regular-season-called-into-question for the Pistons tonight (the former just rolls off the tongue better).
You’re here for a creative play and I think Magic under 26.5 first quarter points is a great look.
They’ve cleared this number in just three quarters during this series and two of those instances came in Game 1. They are relying on offensive rebound they’ve walked away with (26.6% of their misses) and that’s a dangerous game to play against the third best rebounding team in the league, even if it’s helped them jump out to a 2-1 series lead.
They were the sixth worst offense at converting look at the rim during the regular season (63% inside of five-feet) and while the Detroit bigs have underachieved in a variety of ways so far, they’ve held the Magic to 54.9% on those looks.
Without those easy points, there are regression signs all over the place. Jalen Suggs has abandon drives for deep tries (28 3’s against 5 FTA) and Franz Wagner has all but given up in trying to establish rhythm from distance (85.7% of his shots in this series have been 2’s and he led the team with 19 drives on Saturday).
Desmond Bane was the hero of Game 3, but it’s not as if he’s bullet proof (0 FTA in 38 minutes in that game and 12 misses on 15 3-point attempts in Games 1-2). Paolo Banchero is this teams best player and he’s seen his FG% dip with each passing game as this Detroit defense gathers intel about what works.
The Pistons have their own problems, don’t get me wrong. But through 12 quarters, it would appear that the defensive game plan is there: make life at the rim difficult and trust the process otherwise. After Bane lit them up over the weekend, I think it’s safe to say that, out of the gates at least, stopping him is priority #1.
Magic under 26.5 in first quarter
NHL on the Ice
Game 5: Philadelphia Flyers (+114) vs Pittsburgh Penguins (-137)
The Penguins avoided the sweep by knocking off the Flyers in Game 4 on Saturday, 4-2. Pittsburgh returns home looking to keep this series alive in Monday's pivotal Game 5.
Philadelphia has not led Pittsburgh through the first period in eight matchups this season, while not scoring a goal in the opening 20 minutes in any of the four games of this series.
Pittsburgh has not trailed through the first period in 15 consecutive games dating back to March 26. The Penguins have not yielded a goal in the opening frame in seven of the last eight games.
Let's back Pittsburgh in the first period tonight against Philadelphia in Game 5.
Penguins 1P (-130)
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
Now that I am in the SportsLine Discord, I have wall-to-wall picks, even after the newsletter posts. I plan on starting a Discord of my own in the fall.
We didn’t do much on the golf, since it was a weird team event, but we did have the Fitzpatricks as a top-20 play, so that cashed at minus money. We did well again in college baseball in the discord and newsletter.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and how we did overall on the weekend
GOLF
Hit Fitzpatricls top-20 but other two plays missed the cut. Basically a bye week but we have Doral this week!
NBA
Sengun hit is over 5.5 assists in the 4th quarter, but Tatum fell just shy of his 33.5 P/R prop.
On the CBS SN show, we did go 2-2 with our Friday/Saturday plays, adding Duren under and losing on the Spurs team total under.
CBASE
Went 1-1 in our Friday college baseball with a rain out of our Georgia-Ole Miss under
Friday: 1-1
Saturday: 3-0 early, 0-2 late
Sunday: 2-1 + hit MLP
6-4 overall gave us a winning week.
If not in the newsletter, make sure to catch them on Twitter/X
Betting Tip of the Week
Filter Through the Noise
Everyone has their system or their way of attacking the lines. I am more of an aggregator of information, meaning I gather all the info I can in order to make the best decision. With that comes a lot of noise to filter through, which is the first step in trying to decide what to use and what not to use.
There is no perfect science, but historical betting stats that go too far back (different coaches/players) or small sample sizes are usually just noise. Settle on relevant stats or trends that help you and trusted sources that make you smarter. That will help you in the long run.
Full Doral/Cadillac PGA Preview
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action in NBA playoffs, MLB, NHL, College baseball
Kentucky Derby podcast and picks.
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