NFL Preseason in Full Swing; An AFC West Bet to Hop on Now

Happy Friday, the first one of the NFL season. We went 1-1 last night dabbling in NFL preseason action. A reminder and a word of caution when betting the preseason, which is as unpredictable as it gets. The games don’t count and you rarely see many starters play for long. Anything I give out in these newsletters on the preseason are leans only and based on information that I have read and been told. I would not bet a lot and would 100 pct understand if you stay away. Again, they are just leans.

But it’s Friday, so let’s have some betting fun. We have MLB plays, another shot at NASCAR, a WNBA play and an NFL future to jump on now. And a couple of more leans for the preseason.

Remember to download and listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast at Apple and Spotify, where we discuss all of this and more. In the latest podcast, I was joined by Jarrett Bailey of Bleav in Steelers podcast and we discussed betting plays for the AFC North.

Cincinnati Reds (-105, Chase Burns) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-115, Mitch Keller)

As the season progresses, the number of chances to outsmart the books decreases. That’s true across all sports at all times: the smart get smarter with more data.

But is there a leak to expose in the first game of today’s slate, which begins at 6:40?

Chase Burns is largely an unknown quantity (seven career starts) and the counting numbers have been bad. Scratch that. They’ve been repulsive.

6.04 ERA
1.48 WHIP
.995 OPS against with RISP

Let’s take a step back for a minute. We can’t just dismiss the pedigree (Wake Forest single season strikeout record holder and the second overall pick last July) and the fact that his FIP in those 28.1 innings is less than half of his ERA.

This is still a pitcher to be interested in before the books fully catch on and in this spot, why not? The Buccos have been a different team over the past 2.5 weeks and they are beginning to get credit for that in the betting markets,

Now we pounce.

Burns is young. He’s still as much a thrower as a pitcher. Right now, he’s relying on two pitches nearly 93% of the time: the elite heater and a slider that he’s shown confidence in. Even during the recent surge, Pittsburgh has been the fourth worst offense against the slider, a weakness that figures to make itself well known in this spot against a rested Burns (one inning pitched over the past 10 days due to weather).

On the other side is Mitch Keller, a starter who has walked seven batters and coughed up 11 earned runs over his past three outings (13 innings). His launch angle sits at a career high and that could come back to get him against an opponent that is selling out to get the ball in the air (sixth in launch angle post-Break after ranking 18th pre-Break).

I’m not thrilled about counting on the Reds offense in a big way, but with the launch angle profile and Burns’ potential, the idea of chasing a single big swing is appealing. Keller has struggled against lefties, leaving him susceptible to the switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz or a hired gun for this exact spot like Jake Fraley.

Give me the road Reds to win the first five innings outright (-120).