NFL Week 4 Complete; An Early Look at Week 5 and MLB Postseason

Happy Tuesday and welcome to a bonus edition of Betting with Bearman newsletter. Since we had two Monday night games yesterday and a bunch of lines were not posted, we are sending a small one today with a lookahead into Week 5. Also, the Dolphins finally won.

We went 2-0 in our MNF props, hitting Justin Fields over 45.5 rushing yards and Chase Brown under 54.5 rushing yards. For the week, we had an incredible 10-1 props run, which more than made up for the horrible 0-4 sides and total slate.

NFL Main Side/Total Plays (including primetime games): 8-9-1
- Sides: 4-4-1
- Totals: 4-5
Main Props (including primetime games): 26-10 (10-1 in Week 4)
Total: 34-19-1

All the Monday night picks were, but if you want the full cards on Wednesday and Friday, which include the red-hot props, Upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.

Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had VSiN’s Matt Youmans and this week, we have Yahoo! Sports Jason Fitz.

Plus, we have a bonus MLB postseason play for your today since I am in a good mood with the Dolphins win, if you call it that.

In this section, we like to take a first look at the next week’s action and hope to jump on some games before the line moves. These are not official plays unless noted that I took it today. It’s good to get ahead of the market and look for edges. The official plays will come Friday if not noted today.

I don’t want to overreact and won’t overreact to one game with Jaxson Dart, but the Giants beat a very good Chargers team. They did lose main weapon Malik Nabers, but he Dart brings a different style and mold to this Giants team. They still aren’t a very good team, but what I am really betting on here is how bad the Saints are.

I am sorry, but the Saints should not be favored against anyone in the league right now. Sure, they put up a nice showing in Buffalo, but that was more about the Bills playing down to level of opponent in a typical dud spot. The Saints offense is dreadful (22nd in total yards, 27th in passing, 28th in scoring at 16.5 PPG).

Not particularly a game I want to watch, but Giants should win this one. Giants ML (+102)

Another game you are going to hold your nose at. Yes, the Dolphins showed signs up life on Monday night vs. the Jets, scoring three TDs, two to the secret weapon Darren Waller. But that was vs. the Jets and they still only had 300 total yards in the game. More importantly, they lost Tyreek Hill, which was the main reason they were moving the ball for the first 2.5 quarters. Waller had the TDs, but Hill had 6 catches, helping move the ball and setting up two of the scores.

The Dolphins scored a TD on the possession after Hill left, then went 3-and-out twice before scoring a FG late. I have major concerns on this offense without Hill.

As for the Panthers, we have taken their game under each of the last 3 weeks, hitting on two and then missing last week, when they somehow allowed 42 points to the Patriots. 35 was on the defense, but still awful. The offense continues to be terrible, 28th in the league at 18.3 PPG, 24th in yards, 26th in rushing, 21st in passing. They score 30 on the Falcons with only 224 total yards (that’s how bad the Falcons were). As bad as the Dolphins defense is, and they are bad, the Panthers don’t have many weapons to exploit it. If anything, they will run like the Jets did in the first half last night and chew up the clock, which the Dolphins will also do with runs and short passes. Under 45.5

Man, the NFL has some crappy matchups this week. But that’s ok. We bet them!

Guess how many times these two teams have scored over 20 points? Once. Uno. The Cardinals got to 27 in Week 2, but have yet to score over 20 in any other game. The Titans are just awful right now, a massive work in process for rookie QB Cam Ward and company. They are 31st or 32nd in every offensive category, including points scored at 12.8. Until they figure it out, I will be looking to bet Titans unders, especially against the Cardinals. Anyone who saw them play for 3.5 quarters last Thursday night would agree. Under 41.5

Others I am looking at

When we can, we will throw in some MLB postseason bets as well. If you were signed up for this column back in July, we gave out the Blue Jays, who trailed the Yankees in the AL East, as a play to advance to the ALCS. We are a few wins away as they got a first round bye.

Detroit Tigers (-168) at Cleveland Guardians (+138), 6

The Guardians had the lowest barrel rate in baseball for the last month of the season. Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal hasn’t allowed a barrel in 12 different starts this season. In those game, he averages 19.7 outs per start with a 2.29 ERA and 11.6 K/9 ratio.

Skubal over 18.5 outs (+118)

To Hedge or Not To Hedge

I’ll start this section by saying hedging isn’t for everyone. The mathematicians and EV+ bettors will correctly tell you that you lose value when hedging and it’s not worth the price. However, I’m also a fan of guaranteed money, so, in the right spot, I advocate for it.

For example, if you have a four-leg parlay for 10-1 and the first three legs win, you could hedge at whatever value you feel comfortable at, guaranteeing yourself a profit on the bet.

Yes, you are taking value away, as noted above, and may only get 8-1 value. But you’re also putting cash in your pocket and avoiding losing that last leg. I’m not saying hedge down the middle, but I’m a fan of getting your original bet back or even doubling it to snatch that profit. This topic deserves its own page or book, but it’s really a personal preference.

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