One Shining Moment: UConn-Michigan for All the Glory; It's Masters Week!

Happy Monday Betting family! The final game of the college basketball season is here as UConn and Michigan battle it out tonight in Indy. We will either have UConn’s 7th national title and 3rd in the last 4 years, or Michigan get's it’s first title since 1989.

We have that game covered, as well as NBA and NHL picks, a recap of how we did this week and an early preview of the Masters.

While today, like all Monday’s are FREE, make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss full CBB, NBA and golf cards and weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.

Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. This week, we had Sportsline’s Eric Cohen on to break down the Final Four and Valero Open. Another SportsLine (and SportsGrid) host, Brady Kannon, joins me this week to talk all things Masters.

Speaking of SportsLine, some news to report. I will be joining the expert ranks over there as a talent, starting today! You’ll see me on the Early Edge tomorrow morning with some picks, as well as contributing to their site and Discord every day, with the link right here. Make sure to sign up and check that out for even more daily betting content, and a great Discord to be in.

Let me tell you about our new friends at Ungambled. “Ungambled is an app that teaches you how to profit from sportsbook bonuses and promotional offers — legally, systematically, no matter who wins the game.”

Click here to jump down to our Blitzanalytics.co prop of the night. We went 2-3 last week with our Blitz Analytics plays and sitting at 11-7 overall.

Let’s get you some winning bets to cash.

From my PrizePicks article:

Betting against UConn is a “go at your own risk” type scenario. All they do is cover. I do believe that Michigan is the deeper and better team and will win the national title, but UConn covers. Huskies +7.5

Don’t go away! We have some more NBA plays, NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 early preview and futures, nuggets, and much more

Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets (-8.5, 238.5)

Nothing Nikola Jokic does is truly "lucky", let's be clear about that. Where you want to stack him on the podium of best players in today's game  is your call, but he's in the mix and players at that level largely make their own "luck" by way of overwhelming talent.

But could he be running hot in terms of the gambling world?

Since March 11, 69.2% of his potential assists have been converted. A high rate for a 7-footer with this sort of vision and rare isn't unexpected, but it's above his baseline of 61.8% a season ago and well ahead of where things stood prior to this three week rampage (58.2%).

He puts his teammates in a great position to score, there is no denying that, but the rate at which they are paying off is above what we'd expect, yet the books are begging you to take any under attached to the Joker.

Single digit assists pays plus-money and if you want to add a little security, under 11.5 assists is available at most books. Portland has the seventh lowest opponent assist-to-FGM rate in the NBA this season and are fighting to stay out of the nine-seed in the West's Play-In.

Motivated defenses are hard to find at this point in the Association, but we have one in the Blazers that grades above average overall and generally takes away assist potential. Jokic might score 40. He might grab 17 rebounds and get Donovan Clingan into foul trouble. Those things are certainly in play as Denver seeks to finish as the third best team in the West, but asking him to reach a dozen dimes for the seventh time in eight games feels lofty, even if he had 14 in this matchup two weeks ago (they were all 3PM and that simply doesn't happen much, I don't care who you are).

Jokic under 10.5 assists (+106)

Stephon Castle over 7.5 assists

Data from our friends at BlitzAnalytics.co

Seattle Kraken (+140) at Winnipeg Jets (-166), Total: 5.5

Seattle heads to Winnipeg tonight seeking its third victory over the Jets this season. The Kraken look to snap a four-game skid, while coming off back-to-back home losses to the Mammoth and Blackhawks.

Winnipeg returns home following a 3-1 road trip, but the Jets haven't led through the first period in five straight games.

Seattle and Chicago were scoreless through one period on Saturday, as the Kraken haven't trailed after 20 minutes in nine straight games after getting blanked in the opening frame.

Let's look at Seattle here as a nice underdog to cash in the first period (+128) against Winnipeg.

This is one of my favorite weeks of the year, as we have the national title game, but more importantly, the Masters. We will have a full card on Wednesday, and when i mean full, I mean full. In the meantime, here is my favorite to win and why I am fading last year’s champ.

Top Winner Pick
Jon Rahm (+1100)
The public can debate the difference between LIV golfers and PGA Tour golfers all day, and there certainly are differences, but in the sports betting world, it's simple: You know everything about the PGA Tour golfers, while the LIV golfers fly under the radar except for four times a year. For example, you know Scottie Scheffler, the favorite to win the Masters at +350, has been struggling on the course and is expecting the birth of his second child any moment. You also know that Rory McIlroy, the second favorite at  +700, is battling a back issue, with his best finish in the past month a T-46.

But did you know that Jon Rahm's LIV finishes this year have been: 2nd, 2nd, Win, 5th, 2nd? And that he leads the LIV Tour in Greens in Regulation and birdies? Probably not. Of course, the competition and the format are all different, but Rahm is having his best LIV year yet. But he's still +1100 to win it, behind two guys that aren't in top form (Scottie, Rory) and behind fellow LIV player Bryson DeChambeau, who he is ahead of at LIV.

All Rahm has done at the Masters is win it in 2023, finish T-5 in 2021, T-7 in 2020, T-9 in 2019, and 4th in 2018. After not playing well in his title defense in 2024, he returned last year with a T-14. Rahm is arguably playing better than everyone shorter than him on the odds board and has had tremendous success at Augusta National.

Favorite to Fade
Rory McIlroy (+700)
Fading Rory McIlroy is not an easy thing to do. We are talking about the defending champion with eight top-10s and many narrow misses here. But a few things are working against him here. First off, he withdrew while tied for 9th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a back injury. Yes, he returned for The Players Championship, but finished T-46 and never had a round under par. That's the physical part.

Now the emotional part. How do you follow up on last year's historical win and completion of the Grand Slam? It wasn't just a guy who had come close, finally cashing in. It was a guy who had ELEVEN shots at the grand slam and in every way imaginable didn't get there, until last year. You saw it in his emotional release after he won and everything that followed. As much as he "needed" that win to fulfill his career, he does not need it this time around. Oh, and only three golfers (Nicklaus, Faldo, Tiger) in the history of golf have won back-to-back green jackets, so history isn't on his side either.
Fading Rory McIlroy is not an easy thing to do. We are talking about the defending champion with eight top-10s and many narrow misses here. But a few things are working against him here. First off, he withdrew while tied for 9th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a back injury. Yes, he returned for The Players Championship, but finished T-46 and never had a round under par. That's the physical part.

Now the emotional part. How do you follow up on last year's historical win and completion of the Grand Slam? It wasn't just a guy who had come close, finally cashing in. It was a guy who had ELEVEN shots at the grand slam and in every way imaginable didn't get there, until last year. You saw it in his emotional release after he won and everything that followed. As much as he "needed" that win to fulfill his career, he does not need it this time around. Oh, and only three golfers (Nicklaus, Faldo, Tiger) in the history of golf have won back-to-back green jackets, so history isn't on his side either.

How Did We Do?

Now that I am in the SportsLine Discord, I have wall-to-wall picks, even after the newsletter posts. I plan on starting a Discord of my own in the fall.

Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and how we did overall.

MCBB

NBA

GOLF

CBASE

To Hedge or Not to Hedge
I’ll start this section by saying hedging isn’t for everyone. The mathematicians and EV+ bettors will correctly tell you that you lose value when hedging and it’s not worth the price. However, I’m also a fan of guaranteed money, so, in the right spot, I advocate for it.

For example, if you have a four-leg parlay for 10-1 and the first three legs win, you could hedge at whatever value you feel comfortable at, guaranteeing yourself a profit on the bet.

Yes, you are taking value away, as noted above, and may only get 8-1 value. But you’re also putting cash in your pocket and avoiding losing that last leg. I’m not saying hedge down the middle, but I’m a fan of getting your original bet back or even doubling it to snatch that profit. This topic deserves its own page or book, but it’s really a personal preference.

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