Overs Fight Back in NFL Week 2; Two Games on Monday Night

Happy Monday Betting family! Yes, despite more embarrassing performances by the Florida Gators and Miami Dolphins, we are cheery this morning. Why? Because it’s Dan Marino’s birthday and because we have two Monday night games to watch and bet on tonight.

While we didn’t do as well on the sides and totals this weekend as we did last week, they aren’t the only things to bet on, and all bets cash the same. We went 5-2 in NFL props on Sunday to make most of that money back. It was an overall 5-5 day in the NFL (6-5 counting TNF) following a 3-2 College Football Friday/Saturday.

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Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had VSiN’s Tim Murray on, where he nailed the Notre Dame/Texas A&M over, which hit before halftime.

Chad Millman, the former Editor-in-Chief of ESPN.com and former Chief Content Officer of Action Network will be our guest this week.

Let’s get into it as we have two Monday night football games to end Week 2 and an early look at Week 3, and much more!

In the first of four ESPN/ABC Monday Night DHs, we have Bucs at Texans at 7p and Chargers at Raiders at 10p.

NFL Main Side/Total Plays (including primetime games): 5-3-1
- Sides: 3-1-1 (Bucs tonight)
- Totals: 2-2
Main Props (including primetime games): 8-6 (5-2 this week heading into MNF)

I don’t question it often, but I think the wrong team is favored here. The Bucs, who we all liked in the preseason, didn’t play well in Atlanta, yet still rallied to win against a team that swept them last year. The offense struggled vs. a familiar opponent and should be better tonight.

And while the Texans defense looked great against a tough Rams offense, the Texans offense was awful. The turnover at OL and injuries at RB showed as they totaled 265 total yards. An OL that ranked 30th in the NFL last year was 31st of 32 teams in Week 1 per PFF. Dating back to last season, including playoffs, Houston has topped 23 points one time, in their playoff win vs. the Chargers.

This being 2.5 in Houston means the bookmakers basically are calling these two teams even and I don’t think that’s the case. I’m still hoping to get a +3, but if you don’t mind spending a little juice now, can move it to +3.

BTW, the market handle on this game has 51.8 pct of people betting the Bucs to win. We get 2.5 to 3 points with that.

Bucs +3 (-125)

I am also interested in the prop market here.

Texans QB C.J. Stroud: u229.5 passing yards

Buccaneers/Texas Same Game Parlay

For the SGP on this game, I will be moving those lines above more in my favore and adding Baker Mayfield o1.5 TDs. He tossed 3 passing TDs last week for the Falcons, the seventh consecutive game with 2-plus passing TDs. He had 2-plus passing TDs in 13 of 18 games last season, including playoffs and in 26 of his 38 games played with the Bucs.

I don’t have a great feel for the side of total here. The Raiders, usually a punch line and a circled win on the schedule showed us fight in Pete Carroll’s return to coaching. It wasn’t just the win on the road vs. the Patriots, but they looked like they wanted to play for Carroll, something that has been lacking.

On the other side, the Chargers looked scary good vs. the Chiefs in Brazil. Justin Herbert and his offense was rolling and they held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense for most of the game.

My lean is to take the points at home with Raiders, but I also know the Chargers have had 10 days off to prepare for this one. We will go to the prop market instead.

Chargers WR Quentin Johnston o43.5 receiving yards

I don’t have an SGP yet, but considering Jeanty any time TD and moving Raiders to +7.5 on the alt line.

In this section, we like to take a first look at the next week’s action and hope to jump on some games before the line moves. These are not official plays unless noted that I took it today. It’s good to get ahead of the market and look for edges.

A perfect example: In week 1 in this section, we mentioned Broncos -7.5. If you took it Monday, it was a win. If you waited unless Sunday, when it moved to -8.5, you lost. In Friday’s column, it was still -8, so that was a push.

Last week in this spot: After going 3-0 in week 1 in early looks, we went 0-2 last week with Bucs still pending tonight.

We will have a full card later in the week, but let’s take a peek.

What we like/monitoring today

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-12.5, 49.5), Thursday.

I’ve seen enough of the Dolphins lately to convince me it’s over and a new regime needs to come in and clean house. And while we don’t know when it’s going to happen, Friday after this game might be it. I don’t take joy in laying big numbers in the NFL, nor on an early week game, but I’ve also watched every painstaking play of the Dolphins and won’t lose sleep over laying 12.5.

I also think this goes off near 14 at kickoff, so taking this now before it grows. For those counting at home, the Dolphins have lost six straight and 13 of the last 14 overall vs. the Bills and nine straight and 13 of 14 in Buffalo. And that’s with a much better product than what’s on the field right now.

The Bills just covered this and more on the road at the Jets. And if the players were going to “Fight for Mike”, they would’ve done it by now. Don’t overthink it.
Bills -12.5 (I have already played this)

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5, 44.5) at New England Patriots

If you’ve been reading this newsletter or watching my picks on VSiN, SportsGrid or on my twitter/x account, you know that I do not take overs often. Maybe took 4 all of last season.

The Steelers have one of the worst defenses in the league through two weeks, allowing 394.5 yards per game (29th), 8.9 pass yards per play (29th) and 31.5 points per game (29th)

And not that the Patriots are any good, but I did watch Miami move the ball and score 27 points on the Patriots defense after the Dolphins had no offense Week 1.
Over 44.5

Chiefs -5.5, 43.5 at New York Giants

This is not a spot I’d want to be in if I were the Giants. Already 0-2 may not be a surprise, but a team that has gone to three straight Super Bowls is also coming in 0-2. The Giants played their best offensive game in years and still lost to the Cowboys.

This is a great right spot for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. With all due respect to those basking in the glory of the Chiefs downfall, they played two very good teams to start the season. Now, they usually win those games and didn’t, which is a concerning sign, but facing the Giants is a major step down in opponent from Chargers and Eagles. And btw, they lost those games by a combined 9 points. Settle down people.
Chiefs -5.5

Falcons (-3.5, 43.5) at Panthers

To be honest, the biggest surprise in 2025 outside Daniel Jones revival might be the Falcons defense. They held Baker Mayfield and the Bucs to two TDs and one was with under a minute left and totally owned J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings offense. The Falcons offense has only scored 3 TDs with one coming in garbage time last night.

As for the Panthers, they lost scored 10 on the Jaguars and had nine points 55 minutes into Sunday’s game with Arizona before the Cardinals forgot there were 5 minutes left.
Under 43.5

Others that I am eyeing for now

On the college side, what has Clemson shown us that would let them be 17.5 point favorites over Syracuse? Clemson lost to LSU at home, barely beat Troy and lost at Georgia Tech. No one is saying Cuse is good, but they lost by 19 to a much better Tennessee team in Week 1.

Just like with the Dolphins, you don’t need to give me a reason to fade the Gators. They’ve shown nothing in the last two weeks that makes me think they will stay within a TD vs. a Miami team that kicked their butt last year in Gainesville.

How Did We Do?

Not as good as the previous week’s +13.5 units, but we dominated the prop market to make back the side/totals that lost on Sunday.

Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) with full NFL and CFB slates and everything else we know about the sports betting world over the last few days

NFL

CFB

MLB: lost our Friday night MLB play in Angels-A’s game.

How Did the Weekend Go in Sports Betting

Not well for Joe Public, especially in CFB. The top 5 most bet CFB sides are now 2-13 through 3 weeks.

For a complete recap of NFL splits, check out the table at the top of the newsletter.

This section is reserved for our favorite Bad Beats, backdoor covers or general nonsense we saw. If you see one, send me a DM at @davidbearmanPFN on Twitter. I can’t possibly see them all.

For this week, shout out to the individual who cooked up this ridiculous TD parlay. Come work with me.

This got brought up a few times this weekend in my circles, but I try to never go longer than four sides, totals, or props in a parlay. Sure, the payoff is a lot larger the higher you go, and there’s nothing wrong with going for the lotto ticket from time to time, but in the long run, those don’t hit often and are usually a waste of money.

Stick to what you really know and pick three or four sides/totals/props that you’re strong on. There’s a lot more value in that strategy.

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