Pacers Look To Put One Hand On Trophy; Patrick Everson Gives Us Betting Insights

The U.S. Open is underway in Oakmont, the NBA Finals and NHL Stanley Cup Final are halfway to crowing champions, Omaha hosts the College World Series and school is out for the summer in Connecticut. What a great time to read “Betting with Bearman” newsletter and gain insight into the best ways to approach the betting card.

We were not able to produce a newsletter on Wednesday and because of that, we will be giving today’s newsletter out completely free. Usually Fridays are premium, but today the entire card will be free.

We continue our new Friday Bear-Necessities section with a one-on-one interview with Vegas Insider Senior Reporter and friend Patrick Everson. One of the best in the business.

Hope you enjoy and if any questions, hit me up on Twitter/X at @davidbearmanPFN. I love to engage with the community, especially this one.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-6, 227) at Indiana Pacers

Man, we are loving our +900 that was given out in the very first “Betting with Bearman” column last month. We are two games away from cashing that, but a long ways to go if the Thunder have anything to say about it. Before we dive into the props we love for Game 4, it’s worth remembering this key stat that has been repeated in this column a bunch: the Thunder are a historic 0-8 ATS on the road in the postseason and have been favored in all 8.

On to the props!

I don’t want to say we have a decisive game on our hands tonight, but it’s hard to not view Game 4 as such with the Pacers looking to extend their lead and the Thunder looking to get back the home court advantage that they battled all regular season for the right to have.

In big spots like this, it’s easy to default to “overs” on the star players in this league given how NBA offenses are structured these days, but that very belief has created a potential buying window on the fading of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

You are not going to love this one and it will be even harder to click submit, but hear us out. Indiana hasn’t “solved” the MVP, but they are forcing him to play they want him to and that’s a win for them. Of course, he could still get hot from the midrange and hang 50 points in this game, but the math suggests that if OKC is going to get a much needed win, it’ll have to be the supporting cast.

Gilgeous-Alexander FG% Inside of five feet
NBA Finals: 66.7% conversion
Rounds 1-3: 56.5%

That’s an outlier hiding in plain sight. That looks like a weakness of the Pacers, but what if I told you that SGA isn’t getting those shots with the regularity we are accustomed to?

Percentage of shots inside of five feet
Regular Season: 28.4%
Rounds 1-3: 26.6%
NBA Finals: 25.4%

It’s getting harder and harder to get those shots and if his ability to finish those looks trends closer to the first three rounds, there’s much more scoring downside than upside for this road game.

What’s to like about this prop is that we have some wiggle room. A big scoring day from SGA could keep his assist count in check and get us home, even if he were to clear his points prop. The Pacers would rather Gilgeous-Alexander not hang a big number on them, but they are willing to give him looks in that 10-20 foot range – they’ve prioritized stopping his high percentage looks and his ability to set up his teammates.

In this series, he’s averaging 36.3 passes per game, a number that is down 21.1% from the first three rounds this postseason. The Pacers are keenly aware of their need to win the math game and that means limiting three point attempts … and that means fewer assist opportunities.

I have Oklahoma City’s point guard projected for 35.9 points-plus-assists tonight. We saw the shot distribution flatten in Game 3 (Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren all took 15-20 shots with 6-11 FTA) and the playmaking role be divided (Alex Caruso led the Thunder with 11 points created off of assists with five other players finishing in the 5-9-point range).

I like the odds of SGA going under either his scoring or passing prop and because I don’t think there’s much room to go over either number in a major way, I’ll take my chances with a combination prop.

Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 40.5 points-plus-assists (-106, FanDuel)

For a third straight game, I’m investing in Pascal Siakam to go under his rebound total and because he continues to finish close to the projection, neither the number nor the juice has changed much.

There are few times where I truly believe we are smarter than the books, but, process wise, there is a window here.

Siakam had a few odd rebounds in Game 3, including catching an air ball, and he still finished with only six boards. The Pacers love what he brings to the table in terms of transition leak outs and that has resulted in single digit rebound opportunities in each of the past two games.

How has he been getting close to his prop total?

Unsustainable efficiency.

In all three games during the NBA Finals, Siakam has walked away with two-thirds of his rebound opportunities. If you’re unfamiliar with the idea of rebound conversion rate, consider this: Jayson Tatum and Giannis Antetokounmpo were the only two qualified players this regular season (minimums of 40 games played and 20 minutes per night) to average double digit rebound chances and convert 65% of them.

Siakam’s rate is higher than anyone should believe is sustainable and his raw count isn’t high enough to survive any regression in that regard. The only way we get burned here is with a high rebound count for the Pacers as a whole, but OKC’s FTA/FGA is 12.4% higher than Indiana’s first three opponents this postseason, it’s hard to imagine a high volume game in the rebound department coming the way of the Pacers.

I currently have him projected for 6.1 rebounds, a number that implies that even if your book removes the juice and dips to 6.5 for the betting line, I’d still lean in toward the under.

Pick: Pascal Siakam under 7.5 rebounds (-125, DraftKings)

Updated Data from BetMGM

Oklahoma City Thunder (-6, 226.5) at Indiana Pacers

I had about 75 text messages after the Panthers’ 3-0 first period lead of Thursday’s Game 4 and they were all about how the Stanley Cup Final was over. Congrats to the Panthers for the repeat. Well, no one told the Oilers.

Now we have a best-of-3 for Lord Stanley’s Cup, with Game 5 in Edmonton on Saturday. We are 4-0 betting the first period over and the numbers continue to back it up, so we are going to continue to ride it. Until they jack the juice up to -150 or -160, we are going to keep hitting it. It is still at -140 and the last two hit late in the period, but all bets cash the same. Florida had 17 shots in that first period and could’ve scored 6 times. So Game 1 and 2 cashed before the halfway mark and Game 3 saw a goal one minute in and Game 4 had a dozen or more chances before hitting. I’m riding. These numbers speak for themselves:

We might have more to play, including a Same Game Parlay, so make sure to check @DavidBearmanPFN on Twitter/X for more bets.

Note: As if with all baseball bets, these are action if the listed starting pitchers are the ones who take the mound.

St. Louis Cardinals (+128, Erick Fedde) at Milwaukee Brewers (-157, Freddy Peralta), 7.5

Erick Fedde shut down the Dodgers for 5.1 innings on Saturday and has allowed more than three earned runs just once since the beginning of May. He’s been a nice surprise in his first season with the Cards, but this very much feels like a house of cards that could come crashing down in a similar way to the last time he faced the Brewers (April 27: 5.2 innings, 10 hits, and seven earned runs).

For the season, Fedde’s xERA is 49.2% higher than his actual ERA and without the ability to strikeout opponents (5.6 per nine innings), he’s been vulnerable in high leverage spots (.764 OPS against with runners in scoring position).

On the other side is Freddy Peralta coming off of his best outing of the season on Sunday against the Padres (six shutout innings with just one hit allowed).

Milwaukee’s ace has never been an efficient pitcher (trending to average over 17 pitches per inning for a fourth consecutive season) and that makes me a little hesitant to play the full game line (bullpen: bottom-10 in ERA), but I do like him to be effective for his time on the bump against a Cards offense that holds one of the five lowest walk rates in the league over the past month.

The beauty of betting baseball and the things we give you in “Betting with Bearman” is you don’t have to worry about entire game or bullpens. You can isolate what you like, in this case the starter in Peralta. We are playing the Brewers to cover the 0.5 runs through the first five innings (-120)

Since we did not have a newsletter on Wednesday, we are going to fire out a bonus baseball bet today.

Cleveland Guardians (+109, Gavin Williams) at Seattle Mariners (-132 Luis Castillo), 7

Cleveland has been a bottom-10 barrel rate offense all season long and it’s only getting worse (bottom-5 over the past month). Their launch angle is also in the midst of spiking – weak fly balls is a tough way to make a living no matter where you’re playing, but especially when playing at a park that has suppressed scoring more than any other location over the past three years.

The task doesn’t get any easier against a veteran in Luis Castillo whose ERA at home is half of what it is at home as what it is on the road and has excelled when his best is asked (.574 OPS against with men in scoring position). Pitching deep into games is rare these days, but don’t be surprised if we get a rare performance from the 32-year old righty tonight – opponents are hitting .208 against him on his third trip though the order this season with four more strikeouts than hits). Yes, he gave up three bombs last weekend against the Angels, but that was more of an outlier than a true concern – it had been nearly a month since he allowed a homer entering that contest.

Playing baseball favorites isn’t my favorite thing to do, but there are ways to get creative as we have shown in “Betting with Bearman”. Betting Seattle to not bat in the bottom of the ninth inning is an option on DraftKings at plus money (+110) and that’s our favorite angle, but the Guardians to be held under 3.5 runs (-130) will likely land on the final betting card for this Friday the 13th.

In Monday’s newsletter, we broke down the odds of the seven teams that had punched their ticket to Omaha. Cinderella Murray State added their name later that night to complete the field. So who do we like heading into today’s start?

Odds to Win CWS
Arkansas +195
LSU +230
Coastal Carolina +600
Oregon State +650
UCLA +900
Arizona +1400
Louisville +1400
Murray State +4500

Favorite I like: I was on LSU from the beginning of the 64-teams event at +550 and not changing my tune now. They got the scare they needed in the regional by Little Rock and then rolled over West Virginia in the Supers. They have the toughest first round game, vs. new tourney favorite Arkansas, but I think they win that one and position themselves for another Finals run.

Longer shot I like: Coastal Carolina does have the 3rd-shortest odds, so it’s not necessarily a long shot, but at +600 you are still getting a good price. They have the 2nd best ERA in the nation and are on the easier side of the bracket that features 8th-seeded Oregon State and two unseeded teams. At -210 to win the opening game over Arizona, they could be in prime position. If you are looking for a longer shot, UCLA at +900 as staying power, especially if they defeat Cinderella in opening game.

We continue with a new weekly feature in Betting with Bearman, called The Bear-necessities. Once a week, I will interview a sports betting influencer to get their thoughts and opinions on the sports betting field, how they approach betting and, even some picks for the weekend.

Today, we are joined by VegasInsider Senior Editor, Patrick Everson (@PatrickE_Vegas).

Bearman: Thanks for joining us today Patrick! Been a huge fan of your content for years, even before we knew each other.

You’ve been in the field for a long time and have seen tremendous change since 2018. Describe what you’ve seen since the Supreme Court overturned PASPA.

Everson: The changes since PASPA was overturned are far beyond what I would've expected, with plenty of good and a little bad. It's been great to see the 10th Amendment utilized across the country to bring above ground what was already widely occurring with offshore books/local bookmakers etc. And the technological progress has been stunning, with ever-evolving mobile apps providing the ability to offer so many markets and different ways to bet — in-game betting, SGPs, in-game SGPs and on and on.

But I think there's a tendency by operators to press too hard in getting bettors into parlays/SGPs etc. I have no issue with those types of bets. I just want recreational bettors to keep in mind the sportsbooks' mantra: Parlays are a bookmaker's best friend. Also, I'd hoped sportsbooks would work more toward being accepting of sharper play/clearly defined betting limits and such. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened.

Bearman: It’s ironic you mentioned the “accepting of sharper play” part as Chris “The Bear” Fallica said the same thing in this column last week.

What do you think is next for the betting industry?

Everson: As with seemingly everything else at the moment, I'm interested to see what effect AI has on sports betting. It could be a boon for bettors and bookmakers, alike, as another tool in the toolbox. That said, I very much like the human element that, say, a South Point sportsbook brings to the sports betting universe. So I hope AI is not a takeover. Further, I hope AI becomes a mechanism to assist with promoting responsible gaming and even identifying potential problem behaviors.

Bearman: Ah, that term again.. .AI. It’s everywhere! You mentioned South Point and what they bring to the industry. I personally love it there. You like to go on location to various sportsbooks. What type of stories are you looking for?

Everson: Most of my on-location sportsbook work is for pregame action report videos. The reason for on-location is that I want to bring my followers/viewers into the experience of a big Las Vegas sportsbook on game day. Even in this age of sports betting from the palm of your hand across the nation, there's still nothing quite like the Vegas experience.

Further, what I'm looking for is direct insights from the oddsmakers who take the bets and move the numbers. I want to convey to viewers what's going on with the biggest games — where the sharp money is, what the public is doing, and where the sportsbook's needs and liabilities rest. I think it's just one more piece of potentially useful information for bettors. I'm not trying to get them to bet in a certain way. In fact, I'd argue that the videos often convey that value on a certain wager is gone. If I can dissuade bettors from a play that no longer has value, that's a service that's easily as important — and perhaps more important — than info that gets them on a bet.

Bearman: That right there is what I love about your work. If you aren’t following his pre-game action report videos, go do it now. Valuable intel.

With so many states now legal and most of them allowing mobile betting, do you fear the traditional betting at the book model is out?

Everson: To a degree, I fear the traditional bet at the brick-and-mortar book is going out of style. But the way Nevada is set up, at least, that model will continue to be around for a while. Even with my concern, though, I think Nevada has to step up into the 21st century with regard to mobile betting, particularly by allowing remote funding and withdrawal of money. There are enough smart people who can figure out how to thread that needle and entice customers to still come to the sportsbook.

And as I said above, there's still nothing quite like a Las Vegas sportsbook on CFB Saturdays and NFL Sundays, and even more so for the Super Bowl and the first four days of March Madness. My hope is the retail books will always have a place in the sports betting universe, for that incredible experience.

Bearman: Yes, I do not enjoy my mobile experience when I am in Vegas and they need to fix that.

My last question, and thank you again for joining us, is: What’s one improvement you’d make in the betting world?

Everson: Requiring that any state legislature seeking to increase taxes or fees, or creating more barriers to market entry, must allow industry experts on the other side to explain why those options are a massive pitfall for the customers, most of all. Lawmakers need to be made to understand that it's their constituents — the people who put them in office, and for whom they're supposed to work — who get shafted by all the legislative machinations to squeeze the orange dry. It's doing great harm to industry competitiveness while negatively impacting the overwhelming majority of consumers — the recreational bettors.

Bearman: Thanks Patrick!

Here at Betting with Bearman, we like to give out one NFL or CFB Future of the Week to get ahead of entering the summer months. This week we are going to start with one of the more prolific WRs of the last decade, who switched teams this offseason.

Cooper Kupp season total yards: 825.5

Ever since his historic triple crown 2021 season, Cooper Kupp has not been the same. Well, he was the same in 2022 for half the season. Then, he got injured.

- In 2023, Kupp was limited to 12 games because of injury.
- In 2024, Kupp only played 12 games again because, yeah an injury.

But it’s not just consistent injuries that contribute to Kupp’s struggles.

The 2022 version of Kupp was still elite until he got hurt. The 2023 and 2024 versions were not.

Kupp averaged 10.2 yards per target in 2021. That fell to 8.3 in 2022. It further fell to 7.8 in 2023. It bottomed out at 7.1 in 2024. According to ESPN’s data tracking, Kupp went from 15th to 71st to 102nd to 141st the past four seasons. Injury may have caused the decline, but there’s no denying a decline has occurred.

Now at 32 years old, are we really expecting Kupp to suddenly rebound as he experiences a team change for the first time in his career and a downgrade in QB going from Matthew Stafford to Sam Darnold in Seattle?

Kupp’s receiving yardage line is 825.5 at Caesars Sportsbook. Care to guess how many times he’s hit that mark since he came 17 yards short of Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yardage record? None times.

Now, to be fair, he had he stayed healthy, he would’ve gotten there all three years since. I don’t think he can stay healthy anymore. I expect his ability to further decline.

Pick: Cooper Kupp under 825.5 receiving yards (-115 at Caesars)

If somehow you didn’t think Stanley Cup Game 4 was over when it was 3-0 Panthers, kudos do you. Hopefully, you also put some coin on the 13-1 odds the Oilers were getting after the first period. You had your chances.

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