Happy Monday Betting family! Super Bowl LX is set with the Patriots and Seahawks winning their respective conference title games and advancing to Santa Clara in two weeks.
We say hello to a bunch of new subscribers that we got over the weekend. Welcome to the newsletter and community!
We had a nice 6-2 NFL weekend, coming oh so close to a perfect 7-0 slate.
In addition to an early look at Super Bowl LX, we also have 7 NBA games, including two afternoon ones (due to the weather), and 5 NHL games to choose from on this snowed in Monday (for everyone but Florida).
But let’s get you some winning bets to cash.
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Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had ESPN Betting Analyst Anita Marks on. This week we will have Geoff Fienberg on from Mayo Media Network and the biggest Chargers fan I know to help get an early look at both the Super Bowl and the Farmers Insurance Open.
I am also going to help you in your golf pools with One and Done picks AND access to some awesome golf tools that you can use to help with your pool. Head over to PoolGenius and get Discounts courtesy of Betting with Bearman.
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NBA on the Court
Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks (-5.5, 234.5) - 1:40p ET start
This game got moved up six hours due to the weather and that gives us rare weekday midday basketball to look at.
The Hawks have struggled to rebound (out-rebounded in six of their past eight) with Kristaps Porzinigis (Achilles) and Zaccharie Risacher (knee) out and that’s a problem.
Until it’s not.
The Pacers are the third worst rebounding team this season, making this flaw one that probably doesn’t impact the game in a major way for the home team. If extra possessions via pounding the glass are going to be difficult to come by, I’m going to be focused on two things.
Foul Rate
Hawks: 18.9% (8th)
Pacers (21.4%)
Effective Field Goal Percentage
Hawks: 55.4% (8th)
Pacers: 51.2% (30th)
This is the first of two meetings this week. We saw them play on Halloween and while that was a lifetime ago, that contest played out how I think this one could. The Pacers were competitive for the most part, but a singular dry spell (five points in the first 7.5 minutes of the third quarter) sunk them.
They are coming off of a win in OKC and that was shocking on many levels … but is it getting us a few point discount today? Prior to that, they lost three of four and all of those losses came by 9+ points and they went through the entire month of December with two wins.
The Hawks aren’t world beaters, don’t get me wrong, but I very much like the chances of them having two of the three best players in this game and with six of their past seven wins coming by at least seven points, I think they can win this game by a few possessions as the Pacers round out a five-game road trip that extended through 10 days.
Hawks (-4.5)
Don’t go away! We have our NHL game of the night, a weekend recap and an early look at Super Bowl LX!
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More NBA
Donovan Mitchell over 29.5 Points
Cavaliers G Donovan Mitchell has reached his player points projection in 25 of 43 games this season.
Mitchell has scored 30+ in 24 games this season, fourth-most of any player in the NBA.
In 20 career games vs. the Magic, Donovan is averaging 25.7 PPG. He had 36 points on 15-20 shooting on Saturday vs. the Magic.
The Louisville product is seventh in the NBA, averaging 29.1 PPG.
I wrote more about this game here:
NHL on the Ice
Courtesy of Kevin Rogers
NY Islanders (+100) at Philadelphia 76ers (-120), Total 5.5
The Flyers return home from a 2-0-1 road trip, including victories at Vegas and Colorado.
Philadelphia hosts New York tonight, as the Islanders were blanked by the Sabres on Saturday, 5-0. The Islanders have been outscored, 9-1 in the past two losses to Buffalo and Seattle.
In two matchups, the Islanders have lost twice in the shootout, so New York should be motivated here against Philadelphia.
The Flyers are 2-4-4 in the last eight home games in the first period and are in a tough scheduling spot here. Philadelphia hits the road for two more games after this quick stop at home.
Islanders 1P (-110)
Early Look at Super Bowl LX
In this section, we like to take a first look at the next week’s action and hope to jump on some games before the line moves. These are not official plays unless noted that I took it today. It’s good to get ahead of the market and look for edges.
A perfect example: In NFL’s Week 1, we mentioned Broncos -7.5. If you took it Monday, it was a win. If you waited unless Sunday, when it moved to -8.5, you lost. In Friday’s column, it was still -8, so that was a push.
NFL Main Side/Total Plays: 39-45-3 (46.6%)
- Sides: 21-21-3 (1-3-1 postseason)
- Totals: 18-24 (3-2 postseason)
Main Props (including primetime games): 101-65 (60.8%) (9-5 postseason)
Total: 140-110-3 (55.9%) (13-9-1 postseason)
What we like/monitoring today
New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (-4.5, 46.5)
My early thoughts mirror the plays from the last few playoff weeks. Simply, the New England offense has now struggled in all 3 playoff games against very good defenses in the Chargers, Broncos, and Texans.
The Pats offense, which ended the regular season 2nd in scoring (28.8 PPG), 3rd in yards (379.4 YPG) and top 10 in rushing and passing, has been a shell of itself in the postseason, only scoring 18 PPG (and that includes a pick 6 and a 10-yard TD drive), 278.3 yards per game and only 147.7 passing yards per game. Maye has two games under 200 passing yards and 5 TOs in 3 playoff games.
Enter the Seattle defense, which is just as good if not better than the 3 the Patriots have already played. Led the NFL in scoring defense (17.2), rush yards per play (3.74) and second in pass yards per play (5.5). They are not the Raiders, Dolphins, Jets, Bengals, Giants, Ravens, who the Patriots played this season. That’s not another knock on the schedule. It’s just facts. The playoff defenses have been a different challenge for Maye and the Pats.
On the offensive side, it’s time to stop doubting Sam Darnold. Yes, he had a bumpy career, but he was MVP worthy all season, and has reached another gear in the two postseason games, being as efficient as possible vs. San Fran (12/17) and tossing up a 346 yard, 3 TD game vs. the Rams.
Can the Patriots win? Absolutely. They have proven all season they believe in themselves and their coach and can beat anyone. I just think Seattle is better.
And much like I’ve done with the Patriots in every postseason game, I am going to be on the under as well. The combination of both really good defenses and the Patriots struggling against good defenses leads me to a lower scoring game. I’ve taken the under in all 3 Patriots playoff games and went 2-1, and could’ve been 3-0 if C.J. Stroud would’ve stopped giving the Pats points. It was an under game.
Early Leans: Seattle -4.5, Under 46.5
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
We had a fantastic NFL weekend, crushing the two Championship games. We are just warming up in golf. Hit a few, missed a few, but gave out a great One and Done. More below.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter).
NFL
Went 2-1 in our sides and totals, hitting both parts of the Denver game with the Broncos +4.5 and the under, neither of which were threatened. We missed on the Rams, which could’ve gone either way. Maybe don’t fall down trying to catch a punt.
4-1 in props, hitting both Stafford plays, Puka over JSN late, and Maye under. The one we missed was Stidham completions, by 2.
NBA/NHL
Missed Williams rebound total and the first period tie.
GOLF
Didn’t hit any outrights, but got our first top 10 of the year in Si Woo Kim, who was the 54-hole leader. He also cashed us a top 20 since we gave out both and got us a nice T6 in the OAD pool that we gave out. Head over to PoolGenius and get Discounts courtesy of Betting with Bearman.
1-1 in tourney matchups (1-2 on the season)
Betting Tip of the Week
Filter Through the Noise
Everyone has their system or their way of attacking the lines. I am more of an aggregator of information, meaning I gather all the info I can in order to make the best decision. With that comes a lot of noise to filter through, which is the first step in trying to decide what to use and what not to use.
There is no perfect science, but historical betting stats that go too far back (different coaches/players) or small sample sizes are usually just noise. Settle on relevant stats or trends that help you and trusted sources that make you smarter. That will help you in the long run.
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action
The Farmers Open PGA Tour preview
Super Bowl line movements and early props
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